Key to winning our last 2 - score moar points chart

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November 13th, 2011 at 9:26 AM
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ReadYourGuard
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Joined: 08/21/2008
MGoPoints: 6192
Key to winning our last 2 - score moar points chart

In all 8 wins, we have outpaced our opponent's "points yielded per game" average.  Conversely, in our two losses, we failed to score more points than what State and Iowa give up on average.  Therefore, the easy conclusion is, we need to score more than 23 points against Nebraska and 19 vs OSU (using today's stat line).  Here's a simpleton's chart I put together between my  first and second cup of coffee this morning.

Rank Team PPG/avg W/L Score Diff
1 PSU 12.9 x - -
2 Michigan 15.5 x - -
3 Wisconsin 15.8 x - -
4 @ MSU 16.5 L 14-28 -2.5
5 @ Illinois 18.6 W 31-14 +12.4
6 OSU 18.9      
7 ND 20.9 W 35-31 +14.1
8 SDSU 22.1 W 28-7 +5.9
9 Nebraska 22.2      
10 @ Iowa 23.8 L 16-24 -7.8
11 EMU 24.6 W 31-3 +6.4
12 Purdue 26.1 W 36-14 +9.9
13 @Northwestern 28.3 W 42-24 +13.7
14 WMU 29.6 W 34-10 +4.4
15 Minnesota 34.6 W 58-0 +23.4
16 Indiana 36.0 x - -

Here's more flimsy data:  in home games (sans Minnesota cuz they suck and all) we have outpaced our oppenent's defensive average by an average of 8.14 points per game.  Therefore, I predict we're going to score 31 points against Nebraska and 27 against the Bucs.  Mark it down, Donnie.

I am not a statistician, I don't play one on TV, and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.  I'm sure you're shocked at all 3 revelations. 

Have a good morning and Go Blue!

 

"the Spirit of Michigan...is based on a deathless loyalty to Michigan and all her ways....and a conviction that nowhere is there a better university, in any way, than this Michigan of ours" - Fielding Yost
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November 13th, 2011 at 9:37 AM | What DEFINITELY cost us the (Score:2 Normal)
Wolverine Incognito
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Joined: 11/08/2009
MGoPoints: 1245

What DEFINITELY cost us the game was the awful officiating.  The refs blew a clear pass interference call on Manningham on our last drive.

Homer? Who is Homer? My name is Wolverine Incognito.

November 13th, 2011 at 9:51 AM | Nebraska is certainly a good (Score:2 Normal)
wildbackdunesman
Joined: 07/16/2008
MGoPoints: 2583

Nebraska is certainly a good team and a physical team, but I do like our chances.  Nebraska is a team that would have crushed us last year, but with our much improved defense - I think we can win this.  Nebraska hasn't looked bad per se, but they haven't looked like anything special in most of their games.

November 13th, 2011 at 9:59 AM | You got to give us credit as (Score:2 Normal)
mGrowOld
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Joined: 10/04/2010
MGoPoints: 13171

You got to give us credit as a fan base.  Who else would be debating/bitching about the outcome of a meaningless, third tier bowl game SIX YEARS after it was played?  And that crazy people (like me for example) not only remember the game as one giant screw job but can remember specific plays from that game?

My favorite memory from that Alamo Bowl was Lloyd losing it over yet another blown call (the Sun Belt officials used had never actually ref'd a game with reply before -unreal) and the announcers saying when the camera zoomed in one one particularly young looking offical::

"That's Lloyd Carr.  And he's yelling at ME"

 

 

November 13th, 2011 at 1:21 PM | I remember one moment in that (Score:3 Normal)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 28966

I remember one moment in that game where Kirk Herbstreit just chuckled in disbelief and said, "Sun Belt."

November 13th, 2011 at 10:00 AM | Anyone else (Score:2 Normal)
FreeTheFabFivePlz
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Joined: 03/08/2011
MGoPoints: 1025

Screaming like a mad man at Tyler Ecker to pitch the friggin' ball to Breaston on that last play?

So hot.  Milk was a bad choice.

November 13th, 2011 at 12:04 PM | That was my first and only (Score:1)
Wolverine MD
Joined: 08/24/2011
MGoPoints: 236

That was my first and only Michigan game. I sat in the corner of the endzone. I had a great view of the non-call of PI and the non-Ecker pitch. Sad day. I drank a lot that night.

November 13th, 2011 at 1:09 PM | that was the first time (Score:1)
Benoit Balls
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Joined: 11/27/2010
MGoPoints: 859

my future and current in-laws saw behind the curtain of my crazy Michigan fandom. I don't think things have been the same since

ALWAYS remember the golden rule: He who has the gold, makes the rules

 

November 13th, 2011 at 12:19 PM | Tyler Ecker's lack of savvy may have had something (Score:1)
Muttley
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Joined: 07/07/2009
MGoPoints: 4592

to do with it

November 13th, 2011 at 9:46 AM | Sprint rollouts with Denard (Score:1)
dennisblundon
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Joined: 02/23/2010
MGoPoints: 6631

Sprint rollouts with Denard is my problem. We want him to set his feet yet every pass play is designed to throw on the run. Show me a QB that has a high completion percentage doing that. I am not saying Denard is a great passer but play action and having him stand in the pocket seems a bit more effective. Especially since the pass rush is so worried about containing him that they focus more on maintaining their rush lanes. Devin is not ready by any stretch.

November 13th, 2011 at 9:59 AM | This. (Score:2 Normal)
maizedandconfused
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Joined: 01/14/2010
MGoPoints: 4200

I think we need to start doing the playaction fakes out of the shotgun (i.e. QB OH NOES). Also,   the delayed QB draw needs to be reused, because Molk has the ability to push inside defenders and wall them off. 
Secondly, the key to this Nebraska game will be to limit the damage done by Burkhead. 

Taylor Martinez will not beat us, but Burkhead might.

 

On the fifth night—possibly the sixth—a breeze arose.
It was cool and dewy.

November 13th, 2011 at 10:18 AM | How about the pass off the (Score:1)
dennisblundon
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Joined: 02/23/2010
MGoPoints: 6631

How about the pass off the delayed draw? LB's are just crashing the A gap, the middle of the field has to be wide open. We made a living hitting Roundtree on that seam route. We have yet to offer an answer to a defense selling out against the run. Dink and Dunk until the LB's back off or at least play back on their heels a bit. Then go back to running it straight at them. At least that stupid ass formation with Devin and Denard didn't make an appearance.

November 13th, 2011 at 11:15 AM | Co-Sign on moar (Score:2)
Parkersback
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Joined: 08/14/2009
MGoPoints: 399

QB OH NOES.  They've nearly gone the way of the bubble screen, and I can't see why.

November 13th, 2011 at 11:20 AM | Not sure QB OH Noes (Score:2)
coachclen
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Joined: 10/13/2010
MGoPoints: 1033

Were available yesterday. Haven't re-watched but it looked like ILL was stacking safeties over slots, especially early in the game, and crashing the OLB to take that play away.



Probably because it destroyed them last year.

No matter what happens.....They're still gonna run out and touch that banner.

November 13th, 2011 at 11:48 AM | I think bringing in Gardner (Score:-1 Flamebait)
November 13th, 2011 at 9:35 AM | It seems that Odoms is (Score:1)
randyfloyd
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Joined: 08/19/2008
MGoPoints: 1042

finally healthy, so how about some bubble screens, in the last couple of games please...

It's tough being Blue in Columbus!!!

November 13th, 2011 at 9:49 AM | Too bad Hoke didn't have this (Score:5 Normal)
wildbackdunesman
Joined: 07/16/2008
MGoPoints: 2583

Too bad Hoke didn't have this info earlier, so on the 4th and 1 we could have kicked a field goal.  We would have scored 17 - above MSU's average and won the game 17-28.  Just kidding.  Nice work.

November 13th, 2011 at 10:07 AM | This doesn't make sense. Who (Score:2 Normal)
BlockM
BlockM's picture
Joined: 07/03/2008
MGoPoints: 25313

This doesn't make sense. Who cares if we score more points than they give up on average if we don't score more points than they do? That's like saying, "Well, we scored 20 points on LSU, which is better than the average they give up. Too bad their offense scored 50."

@pnbloem | Ultra-MGoBoard

November 13th, 2011 at 10:21 AM | Well in this case (Score:1)
randyfloyd
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Joined: 08/19/2008
MGoPoints: 1042

the chart works.  Notice the "-" marks before the two games we lost, and the "+" marks on the rest...

It's tough being Blue in Columbus!!!

November 13th, 2011 at 10:25 AM | Just because the chart works (Score:2)
BlockM
BlockM's picture
Joined: 07/03/2008
MGoPoints: 25313

Just because the chart works doesn't mean the argument does. If we had scored exactly the opponents' average points given up in both of those games, we still lose them. (Yes, I know it's impossible to score .8 points.)

Unless the point is "we should score more points because it increases our chances of winning."

@pnbloem | Ultra-MGoBoard

November 13th, 2011 at 11:04 AM | I'm going to go out on a limb (Score:3 Normal)
OSUMC Wolverine
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Joined: 09/06/2008
MGoPoints: 1104

I'm going to go out on a limb here:  I guarantee we will win our next two games if we outscore our opponents.

I think the point is that our defense is actually capable enough that in games where we score more than out opponents typically yield, we have a good chance of winning.

Dont stomp on the positive vibe...

Reality is an illusion created by an unsafe drop in blood alcohol levels that exposes one to the idiocy of others.

November 13th, 2011 at 10:24 AM | Yea, but if you do that, then (Score:-1 Flamebait)
November 13th, 2011 at 2:43 PM | Newsflash (Score:1)
ReadYourGuard
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Joined: 08/21/2008
MGoPoints: 6192

This was just one man's early Sunday morning contribution to general discussion.  Don't take it as gospel.  I'm presenting this as hard data that we should use as the basis of our upcoming game plans.  Sheesh.

"the Spirit of Michigan...is based on a deathless loyalty to Michigan and all her ways....and a conviction that nowhere is there a better university, in any way, than this Michigan of ours" - Fielding Yost
November 13th, 2011 at 10:41 AM | this is (Score:1)
MGlobules
Joined: 11/17/2008
MGoPoints: 5148

good

November 13th, 2011 at 12:23 PM | Scoring moar points than Nebraska would (Score:3 Normal)
Muttley
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Joined: 07/07/2009
MGoPoints: 4592

certainly help us win

November 13th, 2011 at 12:30 PM | OP, I'm impressed, sound logic (Score:1)
AMazinBlue
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Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 2250

Although, I think we'll need a little more against each.  I see us needing at least 31 against Nebraska and 27 against OSU.  Not because I think we will allow 30 and 26 respectively, but if like yesterday we have that lapse in offensive production, we might need more points to offset a run that the opposition may have that makes me uncomfortable.

I'll take 31-23 over N and 34-17 over OSU.

What the mind can conceive and believe, the mind can achieve and...Those Who Stay WILL Be Champions.

November 13th, 2011 at 12:42 PM | PPG seems a lot like Points (Score:1)
DaBigDaddy
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Joined: 08/11/2011
MGoPoints: 581

PPG seems a lot like Points Per Game

Playing football on Wall Street

November 13th, 2011 at 3:21 PM | Key to the game (Score:2)
Deep Under Cover
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Joined: 08/24/2010
MGoPoints: 797

If we can outscore them, I think we can win.

Deep under cover in THE enemy's territory

November 13th, 2011 at 3:29 PM | Scoring (Score:1)
EGD
EGD's picture
Joined: 09/16/2009
MGoPoints: 1877

The Nebraska game looks like it could be a higher-scoring affair.  They obviously aren't Oregon but I don't see us shutting them down like we did Illinois.  I like Michigan's chances, but I think we are going to need in the high 20s or 30+ points to win that one.  I think we'll have to come out with more of an open game-plan and take some chances.

Ohio State, on the other hand, looks like it could be a defensive struggle.  I think 20 points could well be enough to win that game--but it will be more important for the offense to limit mistakes and not give OSU any short fields. 

 

 

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