Yikes, kenpom predictions are out. Last year, he predicted Michigan to go 8-10 in conference, and was largely quite accurate when it came to predicting games.
He gives M a 1% chance in Lawrence this weekend. I think our biggest upsets last year were games in which he gave us around a 30% chance (don’tr ecall exactly).
Further, kenpom has going 5-13 in conference, and finishing 11-19, only slightly ahead of where we finished in Beilein’s first year.
Of course his predictions are based on the games already played, and it is pretty tough to argue with him that based on the available data, Michigan is pretty terrible.
So here’s hoping Michigan is much better than their first nine games and we have a chance at the NIT. (I won’t even whisper the other tournament’s name, since the hope of that is so fragile that it will be burst by the slightest disturbance).