Joyner predicts 10-win 2015 for Michigan football
KC Joyner, one of ESPN's college football analysts, believes Michigan could challenge OSU for the East division in 2015. It's an insider article, but here are a few snippets:
The Wolverines ranked 25th among Power 5 teams in rush yards per game from November through the end of the season (186). Michigan also finished seventh in percentage of rushing plays that gained 10 or more yards in that time frame (7.8 percent). Some of that was due to facing Indiana and Maryland, but Michigan also racked up 14 rushes of 5 or more yards in its game against Ohio State. That total ranked as tied for the second-most rushes of 5 or more yards that the Buckeyes allowed against a Big Ten team last season.
wide receiver Amara Darboh looks to be up to the task of taking over as the go-to pass-catcher. Darboh had some flashes of excellence last season, highlighted by a Week 10 performance that saw him lead the Big Ten in receptions during that week. The Wolverines also return four other players who caught at least 10 passes last season, so whoever ends up as quarterback will have plenty of experienced receivers.
Last season the Wolverines held five Power 5 teams to under 100 yards rushing in a game. To put this into perspective, there were only eight other Power 5 teams that equaled or surpassed this mark, and no team had more than six games of this caliber.
EDIT - Blockquote not working...bolded sections are quotes from the article.
The article also mentions Harbaugh's success on special teams, being only one of seven Power 5 teams to return all five OL starters, a relatively easy schedule, the collection of talent assembled by Hoke, and Durkin's reputation as a turnover-creator. That said, it glosses over the big question mark at QB, asserting that Zach Gentry and Alex Malzone may both make a push to be the starter.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:11 PM ^
in the season opener, we're going to The Game with no more than one loss.
And we're beating OSU this year.
February 9th, 2015 at 7:43 PM ^
February 10th, 2015 at 12:20 PM ^
Our second-best season since '06? I'll take it.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:12 PM ^
Is the key to the season. I think we will be alright. 10 might be a stretch but...HARBAUGH!
February 9th, 2015 at 2:16 PM ^
I think scoring more points than the other team in every game is the key to the season. But hey, that's just like my opinion man.
:/
February 9th, 2015 at 2:22 PM ^
link?
February 9th, 2015 at 3:07 PM ^
American football (referred to as football in the United States and also known as gridiron) is a sport played by two teams of eleven players on a rectangular field with goalposts at each end. The offense, the team with control of the oval-shaped football, attempts to advance down the field by running with or passing the ball, while the team without control of the ball, the defense, aims to stop their advance and take control of the ball for themselves. The offense must advance at least ten yards in four downs, or plays, or else they turn over the football to the opposing team; if they succeed, they are given a new set of four downs. Points are primarily scored by advancing the ball into the opposing team's end zone for a touchdown or kicking the ball through the opponent's goalposts for a field goal. The team with the most points at the end of a game wins.
Link
February 9th, 2015 at 3:34 PM ^
February 9th, 2015 at 10:50 PM ^
February 9th, 2015 at 2:54 PM ^
What does Adam Schefter think? Thats the key.
February 9th, 2015 at 9:58 PM ^
February 9th, 2015 at 3:44 PM ^
I bet you work for ESPN!
February 9th, 2015 at 2:27 PM ^
Obviously, QB play will be key. But I would say that the key will be the offensive line. What wonders it will do for whoever plays QB if our O-Line is opening holes for the running game and giving the passer time to work through his reads.
February 9th, 2015 at 7:17 PM ^
The oline wasn't that bad in 2015. Once Johnson was the featured back, the running game seemed to do pretty well. If you read some of the UFR's from earlier in the year, the oline was opening some holes but Green and Smith weren't always getting to the holes.
2015 wasn't a vintage UM line by any stretch, but they were better then the 2013 and 2014 units. I'd like to think that with another year under their belts and a new coaching staff, we're going to be seeing an oline that is closer to what most of us expect out of a UM oline.
February 9th, 2015 at 10:00 PM ^
February 9th, 2015 at 2:45 PM ^
I have been saying Harbaugh could win ten this year since the hire and I still believe it. Look at how great the recruiting classes were. The recruiting analysts can "misfire" on a few kids, but not on entire classes. There is too much returning talent with too big a chip on their collective shoulder not to play extremely well next year.
Add in the Sparty and Brutus factor: for the first time in years, Michigan how has a coach who hates them as much as they hate Michigan. This team is going to come out playing hard. Most of all, the offense isn't going to be predictable. Teams aren't going to know where the ball is going before the snap anymore.
If Harbaugh ever gave a non-coachspeak answer to this question, I am guessing his answer would be "15."
February 9th, 2015 at 3:36 PM ^
February 9th, 2015 at 2:13 PM ^
is there any evidence whatsoever that rushing yards from November-December are any more indicative of future performance than rushing yards from September-October? Seems like the definition of a cherry-picked stat, especially when it's so dependant on strength of schedule during each stretch, as the article concedes.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:19 PM ^
February 9th, 2015 at 2:20 PM ^
The thing that changed in November for Michigan is Drake Johnson. If he is able to come back from his injury, and is given the carries he has earned, I think that's reason enough to look at November's stats as indicative of the future.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:44 PM ^
When you add the fact that Green will be healthy and we have Ty Isaac available, should be a great competition for the starting running back spot.
February 9th, 2015 at 3:07 PM ^
:(
I think we would have beat OSU if Johnson wasn't injured.
February 9th, 2015 at 10:15 PM ^
I do too. They had no answer for him. He is very quick, if not fast. He has great wiggle and squirts through small holes that are only open for a second. The other bigger backs can't do that.
It got glossed over because of the attention the injury to Barrett got, but the injury to Johnson was the inflection point of the game.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:21 PM ^
I dunno, maybe it shows that the offensive line and the running backs improved throughout last year.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:23 PM ^
This isn't evidence, but here is some reasoning. Our OL and RBs were really yound last year. Younger guys, especially on the OL, tend to develop and get better throughout a season, sometimes significantly, so when projecting what type of players some of these guys will be in 2015, looking at November makes a lot more sense than, say, September.
One caveat, however, is that sometimes an OL will "gel" or develop chemistry over the course of a season, which accounts for much of the improvement. With a whole new staff, and the possibility of a different starting 5, some of this may be lost at the beginning of the season.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:28 PM ^
I agree with the plain logic that everyone's given here, I just wouldn't be at all surprised if late-season rushing stats correlate no better with the next year's rushing stats than early-season stats do, especially when they are completely confounded with variable opponent strength.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:29 PM ^
Although, since none of them graduated, it is more likely that their gelling from late last season will carry over to this season. Yes, I realize that they have to compete for jobs, but we still have the entire group coming back. Looking forward to some serious butt kicking by our O-Line under Drevno's tutelage.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:25 PM ^
The article also points out the running game's success against Ohio State, which was extremely encouraging when you consider how strong OSU's defense had gotten by that point.
But to answer your question, I dont know. I'd love to see someone research that, but it won't be me. Anecdotally, I do remember offenses finishing strong and then looking better the following year, like MSU '13.
February 9th, 2015 at 7:26 PM ^
I don't know if OSU's defense was that great heading into the UM. The week before against Indiana they gave up 395 yds of offense. 281 of those were on the ground and the Hoosiers averaged 7.8 yds/carry against OSU.
The week before that they did okay against Minny but still gave up 218 yds rushing at an average of 5 yds/ carry. The week before Minny they played MSU and gave up 536 yds of total offense.
Don't ask me why but imo something clicked for OSU's defense between the michigan game and the BT Title game.
February 9th, 2015 at 10:17 PM ^
Maybe the Big Ten is better than people think, especially in the running games.
February 9th, 2015 at 3:22 PM ^
February 9th, 2015 at 3:42 PM ^
I'm anxious to see improvements on finding the right hole and pass protecting. All of them can run straight but they need to get better in other areas, too.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:14 PM ^
February 9th, 2015 at 2:14 PM ^
Even if the qb play is mediocre, that would be a big improvement over last year. Cut down on the INTs and we'll win 3-4 more games just on that alone.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:18 PM ^
is generating revenue for ESPN. We don't even know who will start at QB. Save the predictions until after the Spring Game.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:20 PM ^
...because the spring game is a great way to determine how the season will go.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:47 PM ^
The same way a prediction of a 10 win season with a new QB that hasnt operated under this offense is something to get excited about.
February 9th, 2015 at 3:07 PM ^
The quality of game-week paractices is what determines how it will go.
Wait... what? No?
February 9th, 2015 at 3:38 PM ^
February 9th, 2015 at 2:49 PM ^
Save the predictions thread til later? Heresay! We've already had 5 from memory since Jan 1 incl 2 in one 24 hour period. My prediction of prediction threads is we average 1/week from now til mid August, And by mid August when we hear how great (ABC) starting QB looks in practice, all the 8 win predictions will have turned to 10-11 win predictions!
I do think the OL will surprise this year to the upside. But like last year we said the defense needs to hold the fort early until the offense gels. They did not. We'll see if they can do it after losing the best LB and best DE.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:52 PM ^
giving odds on the number of threads, I'll take the over.
February 9th, 2015 at 3:35 PM ^
Is the number of prediction threads we have per week predictive of how good our season is going to go?
February 9th, 2015 at 2:18 PM ^
can find an average Big 10 QB (Connor Cook, 2013), they will win 9 or 10 games. Good QB play, and 10-11 or better is quite possible. Go Blue!!!
Rob
February 9th, 2015 at 6:25 PM ^
Don't think Connor Cook was ever just average...
February 10th, 2015 at 12:39 AM ^
February 9th, 2015 at 2:18 PM ^
But it will all depend on Harbaughs ability to develop a QB. Just like Hoke had the ability, if a QB had played well, to save his job. If Harbaugh can develop a QB and get him to be serviceable to start, and maybe to become a playmaker by MSU/OSU games, this team can do a lot of great things next season.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:19 PM ^
Well, I don't know about ten wins, especially considering our QB situation, but I know one thing - we won't be losing to the likes of Rutgers, Maryland, Minnesota, etc. while led by Jim Harbaugh.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:31 PM ^
Eliminate "the likes of Rutgers, Maryland, Minnesota, etc." and last year's team wins 9 games. A bowl game or a Utes win gets to 10 pretty easily.
February 9th, 2015 at 2:20 PM ^
but will be very happy with 9. I believe the run game, special teams, and defense will all be improved. The passing game will depend on how the QB situation turns out. If the new guy can run the offense pretty efficiently and our defense is doing well, and a few breaks go our way, then 10 wins may be possible.