Is it Much Different than 2008?
Watching yesterday's game it had me thinking we've come full circle back to 2008. This team is very similar to the 2008 squad in terms of play on the field and statistically. A very bad offense, led by a mismatched QB fit into a round hole as a square peg. An OL that is young and meh. A lack of playmakers at skill positions. Matched with an ok defense (the 08 defense was not horrid like the 10 defense). Very similar statistical outputs in terms of total offense / total defense statistics. A few star players lost in a mess (Taylor, Minor, Brown, Graham back then) of mediocre. Headed for a 3-4-5 win type of season.
2008 there was at least a belief that it was a necessary evil - it was the first truly bad season in a long time but the stark system change and "bare cupboard" were excuses. 2014 you have a bunch of players recruited for this specific system and instead of year 1, it is year 4 of a regime. So on that front it is even worse than 2008. Rather than coaching stability (for better or worse) in 2008/2009, we now are faced with a clean sweep of the coach and then hopes and prayers about the new coach.
And before you point to this team "being in a much better place!" due to the bunches of talent on the team not being utilized and recruiting...well the 2008 class was 10th in the nation and the 2009 class was 8th in the nation. So the recruiting services viewed those classes not much different than they view our last few. So without having the benefit of history nor the ability to look into the future (who knows which players in the recent classes will turn out) we look VERY similar even from that standpoint of cupboards.
I dont see a lot of high end talent team on the horizon (2015) - Lewis, Henrry, and Butt are the 3 guys and if you want to throw Peppers in based on 1 game v Miami OH you have 4. A lot of other players are just servicable for a mid tier Big 10 team. Not that different from what you would say entering the 2009 season. Hey there are some high end guys... surrronded by a lot of ... well other guys. Yes they are not being coached well but where are all the quick twitch athletes on this team? How many would start for OSU or MSU in 2015 off this squad once we lose Ryan, Clark, and Funchess?
For all the depressing things about the current state of affairs, the worst from this standpoint is we are in year 7 of the wilderness. And for those not bathed in maize kool aid, looking not that much different than year 1.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:07 PM ^
Yeah, 2008 was much different because the knowledgable fans knew 2008 was going to suck but there was plenty of hope that it would get much better. That hope still exists, but so does the fear that the leadership will fuck everything up worse. 2008 > 2014 IMO
October 26th, 2014 at 7:55 PM ^
Yes, 2008 was FAR better. When your team, in its 4th season, looks like a first year regime transitioning from one end of the offensive spectrum to the other... You're among the worst coaches in college football.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:07 PM ^
Double post.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:13 PM ^
I think it is much worse than 2008. As has been said it's year 4 and things have only gotten worse. In 2008 the HC at least had a resume of being a legit top 5 head coach at the time.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:17 PM ^
everything was different and attempting to totally flip the culture. Right now is the 4th year of an established coach and "plan". Hoke has been preaching the same message since he got here. Team, family and B1G Championships.
In 2008 it was all new and different and there was HOPE! Hoke and Brandon and the entire staff have failed at every turn. There is no hope, no optimism. There is only broken dreams and desolation. No one thinks this team wins two more games. Heck, they may not win another.
At least in 2008 you knoew it would get better eventually. In 2014, it won't, it will continue to get worse because this staff cannot develop players, create a workable gameplan or coach their way out of a wet paper bag.
THIS IS MUCH WORSE!!!! FIRE BRANDON NOW! FIRE Hoke the day after OSU loss.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:35 PM ^
This^.
The difference between 2008 and 2014 . . . is 2009 and 2015.
In 2008, we had very high hopes for 2009. 2008 was just perceived as necessary growing pains, the way Texas, Tennesee, and PSU fans are feeling this year. Better days were assumed to be ahead.
In 2014, we have no hope for 2015 without a complete regime change. We are not in a growing pains situation. We should have been there by now. But there's nothing on the horizon that says next year will be any different.
In 2008 I was hopeful. In 2014 I am just depressed.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:16 PM ^
It's Year 4.
2008 was a slap in the face; this has been a gradual slide after a euphoric 2011.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:17 PM ^
October 26th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^
I picked those classes specifically because when people begin hyping up 2015 they will say Freddy Canteen! Drake Harris! Ty Isaac! (not a recruit but essentially a sophomore). Just wait until you see them!
The reality is your football team is based on the recruiting classes from 2-5 years ago. But the players we have not seen are always "the great saviors" so in about 7 months from now everyone will be hyping Isaac over Green/Smith because he is like Bigfoot - never seen in a UM uniform. Drake Harris and Mo Ways will save the offense - why? Because we have never seen them so they must be better than Darboh and Chesson. QB? It will be Speight because we have seen Morris.
I disagree 100% with the viewpoint that people should be hitching their hopes to a bunch if guys who have either never seen the field or barely seen it but that is what the narrative is for bad teams. The reality is we need big steps up from guys like Charlton, Wormley, Wilson, Stribling, Dymonte Thomas, D. Hill, Ross III, Gedeon, Hurst, every damn OL, Chesson, Darboh, and Morris. Guys who have been in the system a few years and are at the age they should begin thriving. Those are the type of players who form the core of your football team -the 3rd and 4th year players.
Instead most of the talk will be about the never before seen guys as leading us out of the wilderness. Because the guy you have never seen is always better than ones you have when you are a bad football team.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^
October 26th, 2014 at 1:38 PM ^
I am going to sound like PurpleStuff but why? He was 4th string at USC behind a converted LB and another freshman in his class if my memory serves.
That doesn't mean he wont be an upgrade (maybe he will, maybe he wont - he still has to be behind this OL) but thats actually all besides the point. Counting on first year players to save your system is a damning indictment on all the upperclassmen and their lack of development. On quality teams you might have 3-4 first year contributors and you are not counting on them to save your program as we are increasingly doing. And we do that because of the lack of development of the older guys. Who themselves were a bunch of 4 stars (or a few 5s).
October 26th, 2014 at 3:55 PM ^
This is why thie chatter of Hoke & co. having a remote possibility of staying scares me. The kids need to be coached up - every kid you mention. Hoke has never shown this ability.
This is worse than 2008, as painful as that was. We knew Sheridan-Threet would be bad plus all the previously mentioned reasons. This is year 4 and has felt like a season-long dirge.
October 26th, 2014 at 2:05 PM ^
It's one thing to win three games in a season with Sheridan as your QB and Tay Odoms as your leading receiver; John Thompson as an OLB and Stevie Brown trying not to pee himself at deep safety. RR cobbled together a team full of walkons and physically overmatched players.
It's entirely another to have maturing classes of top-10 talent and get physically overwhelemed, bodyslammed, and stuffed into a locker by MSU in year four. The exact same way as in year three.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:18 PM ^
October 26th, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^
October 26th, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^
2008 - I had hope that 2009 would be better.
2014 - I fear that 2015 will be worse.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:23 PM ^
October 26th, 2014 at 1:43 PM ^
made with the best intentions
There lies the problem. A lot of decisions were not made with the best intentions for the program, but rather were based on the petty jealousies of a handful of people and who did or did not get along with whom.
If decisions had been made based on what was best for the program, they would have been different decisions.
October 26th, 2014 at 2:20 PM ^
October 26th, 2014 at 7:59 PM ^
was not best for the program?
October 26th, 2014 at 1:24 PM ^
I really appreciate what you're trying to do here, but ultimately the only comparison I can see is that we both have moderately solid defenses with anemic offenses. Oh, and both teams lost to Utah.
QB situations were somewhat different. DG has stayed throughout all this nonsense. Mallett left.
You mention Year 1 vs Year 4... but think about it- we were in the process of overhauling the offense. By now, this offense should have had an identity but instead, we've been inconsistent on offense for 4 years now. I don't see how the position coaches.
This team is better than the 2008 team, but we shouldn't have to be comparing them.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:24 PM ^
Very different. We expected 2008 to be bad because it was a new coach and a complete overhaul of our offensive philosophy, which had been more or less the same since the stone age.
In year 4 of your coaching regime, you expect improvement. There is no excuse that Hoke shouldn't be fielding a competent team. We're on par with Indiana, Illinois and Purdue. We are the worst football team in the worst (or 2nd worst) "Power 5" conference.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:28 PM ^
October 26th, 2014 at 1:30 PM ^
It's different, but I think some are overstating the hope people felt as the 2008 season progressed. We certainly had hope before the year, and it was restored the following spring when Tate Forcier arrived (remember the "Weapon of Choice" video?). But the 2008 season itself was absolutely brutal for a program that hadn't had a losing season in 41 years. It was stunning to watch. Now, OTOH, I think a lot of us are a little numb to the pain of losing, and are drifting dangerously close to indifference.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:43 PM ^
2008 was brutal to watch as it happened. But even then, we still didn't expect much more than a bowl. Yes Toledo was horrifying, but before the season if you'd tell me we wouldn't be bowling I would not have denied the truth of it - I just thought that "good things happen for Michigan" and we'd be all right. In 2014? I was thinking our floor was 7-5, that 8-4 or 9-3 were the most probable results, and that we might even have the talent to win the Big Ten. I was obviously wrong about my outlook, but I acttually still believe that we are talented enough to win the Big Ten.
So I gess while 2008 wasn't exactly expected or easy to deal with - it was still more so than this season.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:57 PM ^
A lot of people now claim that 2008 didn't catch them by surprise, but we were #24 in the coaches' poll going into the 2008 season. Brian predicted 7-5. The consensus going in seemed to be that our defense would be good enough to keep us in every game while the offense slowly figured things out. When it turned into a 3-9 disaster, it was bleak. People expected improvement in the future, but everyone here was pretty demoralized as that season wound down.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:32 PM ^
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October 26th, 2014 at 1:47 PM ^
I probably delved too much into the off the field stuff but my larger point was the actual football teams are not much different and statistically they are very similar despite "a loaded cupboard" Hoke has as compared to RR. RR didnt have a 5th year sr QB either which should be a monster advantage. Instead we are getting a Threet level of performance from that position.
Here are the game by game results - we are getting blown out more now. ND was not competitive, MSU was not competitive, Minnesota was not competitive and I'd argue by the 2nd half Utah was not competitive. This offense is so bad once you are down 10 pts the game is over.
In 2008 - PSU, OSU and Illinois we were not competitive. So we are already ahead of 2008's pace in terms of being "not competitive" in our losses. With a far higher quality of player - per Rivals at least.
2008 Michigan Wolverines Football ScheduleFinal Record: 3-9, 2-6 (Big Ten) |
||||
| Date | Opponent | Result | Tickets | |
|
Saturday Aug. 30 |
 |
Utah Utes Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
Lost 25-23 | --- |
|
Saturday Sept. 6 |
 |
Miami (OH) RedHawks Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
Won 16-6 | --- |
|
Saturday Sept. 13 |
 |
at Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN |
Lost 35-17 | --- |
|
Saturday Sept. 20 |
--- | Open Date | --- | --- |
|
Saturday Sept. 27 |
 |
Wisconsin Badgers Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
Won 27-25 | --- |
|
Saturday Oct. 4 |
 |
Illinois Fighting Illini Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
Lost 45-20 | --- |
|
Saturday Oct. 11 |
 |
Toledo Rockets Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
Lost 13-10 | --- |
|
Saturday Oct. 18 |
 |
at Penn State Nittany Lions Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA |
Lost 46-17 | --- |
|
Saturday Oct. 25 |
 |
Michigan State Spartans Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
Lost 35-21 | --- |
|
Saturday Nov. 1 |
 |
at Purdue Boilermakers Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN |
Lost 48-42 | --- |
|
Saturday Nov. 8 |
 |
at Minnesota Golden Gophers H. H. Humphrey Metrodome, Minneapolis, MN |
Won 29-6 | --- |
|
Saturday Nov. 15 |
 |
Northwestern Wildcats Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
Lost 21-14 | --- |
|
Saturday Nov. 22 |
 |
at Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH |
Lost 42-7 | --- |
October 26th, 2014 at 8:17 PM ^
Win Probability Outlook for Remaining Games
| Proj Spread | Opponent | Win Likelihood | Sagarin Rank | Sagarin Rating |
| -- | Mich | -- | 71 | 68.25 |
| ----------- | -------- | -------------- | ------------ | -------------- |
| 4.1 | IU | 60.9% | 74 | 67.39 |
| -6.9 | @NW | 32.3% | 56 | 71.84 |
| -3.4 | MD | 41.1% | 41 | 74.91 |
| -21.2 | @OSU | 7.9% | 16 | 86.15 |
Probability Distribution of Final Regular Season Record
| Reg Season Record | Likelihood |
| ----------------- | ---------- |
| 3-9 | 14.4% |
| 4-8 | 40.5% |
| 5-7 | 34.4% |
| 6-6 | 10.1% |
| 7-5 | 0.6% |
Sources:
• Proj Spreads via Sagarin http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
• Normal Distribution functions using
Sigma(ActualMargin-ProjSpread)
calibrated to minimize sum of squares vs
Link -- Chance of Winning vs Spread
• Resulting Sigma(ActualMargin-ProjSpread) = 15
October 26th, 2014 at 1:36 PM ^
In 2008, most of our starting OL were having their first starts against Utah. That's not the case today. The "square peg" QB was a freshman transfer or a walk-on, not a 5th year senior. Additionally, I think Greg Mathews was our only upper-classmen back or receiver. Today we have Funchess leading a veritable stable of capable receivers, and all our RBs have been on campus for some time now. While we had high recruiting classes in 2008 and 2009 (many who didn't stay on campus), we did not have that recruiting in 2006 or '07, did we? Which is why we expected *SOME* defensive struggles in 2009 but not to the extent that we had.
I think there is talent on this roster, which is what makes 2014 so much more disappointing than 2008. Spielman said it best yesterday when he talked about how this team keeps coming up just short, play after play. On a young team in a program's first year after a transition, that's understandable and expected. But when a senior QB throws to a senior WR and they both keep coming "close" to making big plays? Let's just say it gives me hope that the right coach can come in and improve things right away. There will be holes on the team - even Alabama and Oregon have their holes - but team 136 should be more competitive than 129, 130 or 135.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:44 PM ^
we had hope it would get better. I really don't think Michigan fans have any idea how terrible this program is right now from the bottom up.
Now we face another rebuilding, probably with a "Michigan man", more stupid chest pounding about how "this is Michigan", qoutes from a coach from 25 years ago before any players were even born, meanwhile they fall further and further behind the rest of college football.
October 26th, 2014 at 8:21 PM ^
"This Is Michigan" when we go after the next coach/J. Harbaugh.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:44 PM ^
We've gotten worse every year from 2011 to 2014.
So in that sense it's different. In the sense that neither coach in those years has been successful overall, no.
October 26th, 2014 at 3:42 PM ^
Actually, in Big Ten play we declined from 2-6 in 2008 to 1-7 in 2009 - and we went from beating two bowl-bound teams in '08 to only beating a bad IU team in '09.
Our improved overall record in '09 was largely due to us playing a weaker non-conference schedule, replacing Utah with Delaware State and getting ND at home instead of away.
As far as I'm concerned, those two years were basically a wash. 2010 brought modest improvement but the season-long trajectory was negative and prompted questions over whether RR had lost his team.
October 26th, 2014 at 4:00 PM ^
The two bowl teams we beat in 2008 were pretty marginal, though (both of them finished 7-6).
Just to be clear, I'm also not suggesting that RR should have kept his job. While his teams did improve, they didn't improve nearly enough.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:45 PM ^
beat Minnesota.
I-L-L-I-N-O-I-S we are the worst program in the Big Ten and that is really saying something.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:49 PM ^
Everyone was arguing with me this week that this team wouldn't be worse than any of Bobby Williams or JLS's teams. I strongly disagree especially since those teams were playing in a tougher big ten and we would be lucky to win two more games this year.
I really think this team is much worse than the 2008 Rich Rod team because that team never looked like they weren't trying. This team does. And honestly the offense might have been better with Sheridan and Threet than it is now which I never thought was possible.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:48 PM ^
At least in 2008 we had Wisconsin and Minnesota.
What do we have in 2014 to hang our hats on?
October 26th, 2014 at 1:56 PM ^
REVENGE ON APP STATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
October 26th, 2014 at 3:45 PM ^
PSU may be on the same level as those teams.
But the mere fact that we're comparing 2014 with 2008 is a huge problem in itself.
October 26th, 2014 at 1:57 PM ^
October 26th, 2014 at 2:33 PM ^
I'm guessing 2012 - and only because we beat ND in 2013
October 26th, 2014 at 1:59 PM ^
I pretty much agree with a lot of people here - there was some acceptance that 2008 had the potential to be a rough ride (but I remember August being very optimistic) , although maybe some were a little taken aback by 3-9. In any case, there was some promise that it would go up from there. I think what we've seen in 2014 so far is that some of the basic issues that began to creep into the cultural picture of Michigan football have not been addressed, and having a coach that seems to be at a level of competition he is not suited to be at (and in his 4th year of this) doesn't help matters. That we're talking about having dim prospects for bowl eligibility in the fourth year of this coaching regime and not the 1st is a bit troubling.
October 26th, 2014 at 6:36 PM ^
October 26th, 2014 at 2:03 PM ^
Doesn't matter how this compares to 2008. The team is headed in the wrong direction.
The trend is down, not up. '08 was the first year of RR's tenure here, not the 4th.
Harbaugh or bust.
October 26th, 2014 at 2:06 PM ^
wooo! double post.
October 26th, 2014 at 2:19 PM ^
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October 26th, 2014 at 2:31 PM ^
There are more than enough good athletes on the roster to produce a decent football team.
As another poster pointed out recently, this team can't string together 4 plays without some sort of mistake that either kills a drive or gives up a third and long conversion.
So the biggest problem is that they make too many mistakes.
And the mistakes, in turn, reflect a lack of player development.
This is much more a coaching problem than a 'cupboard is bare' problem.
Even if the talent level is not as good as many imagined, it is certainly not so low that the team should finish 8th or worse in the Big Ten.
In the end a team that is riddled with mental errors and poor technique (problems that stem from coaching) is bound to look like it lacks raw talent, even though it does not.
We are the right coaching staff and right QB away from where we want to be, which is in the hunt for the Big Ten title every late Novermber (which will also put us in the hunt for a playoff spot).
It really is that simple.
October 26th, 2014 at 2:51 PM ^