spoiler alert: i linked this
But seriously what the hell is that post above.
...great job. Hilarious skit.
favorite 2012 recruit for sure.
you can always beat duke later but prospects like Clowney dont come around very often
My thoughts exactly. And if our players were allowed to play defense like Duke players without getting whistled for it, the outcome might have been different.
you can always beat duke later
Theoretically, yes. But we've never beaten them in the NCAA Tournament. The few times we've even beaten them in the regular season (like in 1997 and 2008) were huge, huge moments. To take them down in the tourney would have been even bigger.
Now, try to remember whom our highest-rated recruit was in the last five years. Justin Turner, maybe? Was signing that kid really that big of a deal, as it turned out?
But only if it had been the exact same game with a game-winning 3 pointer at the end.
My rationale is I can spend the next week laughing at the ESPN crew....
Beat Duke/ Sweet Sixteen...easy call. at least for me.
To bring some microeconomics into it, it's a gamble. We have a shot at the recruit whether we take the basketball game or not, but if we take the recruit, there's definitely not a chance we win the Duke game.
Which one maximizes utility?
For me, Michigan wasn't going to win a basketball title (or make the Final Four) either way. Maybe Clowney (my pick) is the next Lawrence Taylor from day one and gives Michigan a chance at something special in football over the next couple of seasons. The unknown is so much more exciting.
But wouldn't the basketball scenario be "the unknown" also? I mean, if we were good enough to beat the #1 seed in our region, we should have theoretically had an easier time beating the next two opponents.
Not to nitpick, (completely for nitpicking purposes) but Clowney was a 2011 recruit. Selecting a 2012 recruit makes things a little more interesting as you have to forecast the best prospect without the luxury of senior film.
I know the name of (1) 2012 recruit: Ben Braden. I couldn't name a single 5* 2012 recruit.
Stefon Diggs? Again, I was just being a(n unecessary) stickler for the hypothetical. Needed to be a recruit for this year who was yet to commit.
Wouldn't it depend on the slope of your indifference curve?
A model of this would be very interesting to look at.
We need to get a budget line too, quick.
While utility is merely a subjective measure of "happiness", I think beating Duke would most likely increase the net utility across all Michigan fans. There is a law of dimishing returns as you move up the recruting ranks. What is the difference between the no 1 and 15 pick? Very little. Therefore, your marginal rate of return would not be that much bigger than our highest ranked recruit.
Beat Duke, we talk about it for years. Get Clowney, fingers crossed on what happens next.
Ceteris Parabis, the basketball win would most maximize utility. I mean, if everything else stayed the same, the top recruit (most likely a DB) would be situated between not good players. That isn't what I would call "satisfaction."
You have to remember that Texas fans are just as aware as the rest of us that their team is coached by Rick Barnes, and that therefore there is no way in hell they were going to win the title, and probably not even beat Duke.
"So... either we can get started on bringing our program back from our mediocre-to-bad 2010 season, or, we can win one more bball game only to get our ass reamed by Duke. Duhh..."
Conversely, for M, one football recruit in next year's class isn't going to come close to fixing everything, but if we beat Duke, I think we had a good chance to make the four.
No brainer. I'll take the Duke win.
Football is more important than basketball, but you can't pass up a win over a #1 seed and Duke to boot in the tournament for possible wins later.
How else can you guarantee that you will get the player with the best name remaining?
But seriously, probably the Duke game.
A Duke win does exponentially more for the basketball program than any single recruit does for the football program. Easily, the Duke win would be my choice.
Hoke is doing a fine job of recruiting. And Mattison is a great guarantee we'll get good recruits.
Easily the Duke win. Not only do I hate Duke, but it's a guaranteed win, spot in the Sweet 16 and an easier matchup to advance farther. On the other hand, the recuit, no matter who it is has no guarantee and it's basically a crap shoot if he performs, wins games, or even stays with the program. I'll take the sure win over Duke 10 times out of 10.
I'm not sure how anyone could choose the recruit over beating Duke.
Sweet 16 with an extremely young team would help the program out so much.
Compared to getting a 5 star that we might have a chance with already, and for all we know that 5 star will be a bust.
So your options are high profile win and we're still reveling in the joys of March Madness or a possible contributer to 21 other starters.
Duike win brings a huge amount of recognition to Michigan - helps with everyrthing Michigan.
Without a doubt recruit... he'd be contributing for 3-4 years with a chance to earn us a Big Ten/ National Championship. A win against Duke advances us just 1 game in a tournament we would be extremely unlikely to win.
I'd think that'd be a very winnable game for this team...for that matter, UCONN or SDSU would have been as well out West...then another shot at OSU? Duke win, without a doubt...a win like that can spark something special...can everyone imagine what that would've done for the team's confidence going forward in the tourney?
I see what you're trying to say but I think they're already feeling confident after their 30 point win over Tennessee and hanging with Duke until the very end. On the other hand a big time recruit can make you into a National Champion ala Cam Newton, Tim Tebow etc
I hope "etc" doesn't just mean etcetera and is actually an acronym for "Denard in 2012" /knocks on wood
Cam Newton would have been quite a poor choice for that HS recruit. I'll take the sure thing which may well help recruiting too, at least for BB.
I will now go back to 6th grade and work on reading comprehension, Billy Madison-style...
Yeah, the recruit. If this recruit is the next BG, Lamarr, Denard, Woodson, Wheatley, someone like that, he will bring us many days of joy. The Duke win would give us one day of joy, with the chance of more joy, but the likelihood of another letdown in 1-2 games. But if we get one major guy, let's just use Clowney as the example, he will greatly improve the chance of joy for 13-14 Saturdays a year over the course of 3 or maybe 4 years. Plus, that improvement might pave the way for more Clowneys to sign on.
Plus, let's be honest, football trumps basketball any day of the week. Well, except for those days when there are basketball games.
And I was heavily invested in this years basketball team. Emotionally that is, I love them.
It's definitely more of an individual preference...I see how football is the bigger draw, but as a relatively recent student, if you wanted to, you were very close and involved with the team....you'd talk to them on and around campus, go to special practices/dinners with them, talk to them well before games etc... players and coaches would come to meetings and talk, and the athletic department did everything in their power to draw students...it was a very involving season and made one feel extremely close to the team...
I'm not a student.
Recruits sometimes underwhelm. When that happens, a 5-star is still usually a good player but not worth a huge post season hoops win. I'd need a morph uniform switch of a proven stud freshman who we'll be thrilled to get just 3 years with before he goes pro, to give up the huge basketball win.
Sometimes recruits underwhelm. But if you got to pick any player, and you picked the #1 guy on Rivals, you'd be almost guaranteed to get an All-American. Look at who the previous #1s are, and tell me if there are any on there you wouldn't want. Maybe Pryor, but still maybe not. All of those guys had much bigger impacts on their teams than one second round tournament win. Even TP - OSU doesn't win the Rose Bowl two years ago without Pryor. I'd trade almost any tourney win for a Rose Bowl win.
The #1 ranked recruit usually goes to a team that is already good, any correlation with wins isn't necessarily because of that one player. These teams usually have solid backup plans as well.
I believe a trip to the Sweet 16 for the first time since the 90s would have meant more to our basketball program (including a major benefit to recruiting) than one individual recruit would mean to our football program.
I would take Clowney, but that's it. Besides him, it's a win over Duke every time. He's simply the best high school player I've ever seen and I will be shocked if he doesn't end up a top 5 NFL pick.
Even the best football player in the country is just one starter out of 22. A win over Duke would have been a huge, statement moment. I would have been more torn if it were a basketball recruit. There, one guy can make or break your program. Take Darius Morris off our team and we probably would have been worse than last year's 15-17 squad.
Take Denard off the football team. I'm just saying, one great player can make a pretty big difference.
Even the greatest QB in the world can only do so much. John Elway never had a winning record at Stanford. Denard, for all his ability, couldn't prevent us from losing six games. One guy can't turn around a football program. In basketball you can sign Cazzie Russell and turn into a juggernaut. In football you have to gradually assemble a roster.
And in this case, people are talking about Clowney, a defensive end. He's not that important. We had probably the best DE in the country in 2008 and '09, and still sucked.
To make this an equitable trade, you'd have to throw in about five football recruits.
Wasn't the scenario in the poll that Texas would get to play Duke in the Sweet Sixteen, not that they would necessarily beat Duke in the tournament? Texas would probably give Duke a decent game but beating Duke is never a sure thing.
But yeah, I probably would pick getting to play/beat Duke in the Sweet 16 too, because of the comparative publicity and exposure it would bring to the program.
I'd go with the win against Duke by means of a Tim Hardaway Jr. game ending and 1 Alley Oop from Darius over that impressively ugly Kelly guy.
I'm just personally more excited about our Basketball team/program at the moment. I'm sure that will change as we get closer to the fall but the last 6 months have been pretty tough on me as far as football goes. I'm just slightly emotionally detached from the football program at the moment. Absolutely not trying to bring the front page malarchy into this. Just way more excited about the basketball team.
Half those comments are the MGoHipsters rehashing old, unanswerable polemics from the RR era. There are some good ones closer to the tail end if you want "real" MGoBoard analysis of Brian's post.
Not even a question
Gives us the #1 seed's path to the Final Four.
Can you imagine the size of the ring on Bielien's finger if he wins a Final Four?
Heck if I follow recruiting that closely. Uh... the best one that really wants to come to M.
Beating Duke may have accelerated the timetable for Michigan being "the" school for instate basketball recruits and relegating MSU to their former status of second fiddle. Michigan still needs to have one large, elite recruit sign with the Maize and Blue to open the floodgates. One recruit in football, unless it is a Charles Woodson, isn't going to mean nearly as much.
Since it is impossible to predict any recruit for a Heisman or having a Woodson-esque effect on the team, the basketball victory is a "slam dunk" chioce over one football recruit.
Are you kidding? Beat Duke every time. There's no guarantee the recruit will ever even play let alone dominate.
I get both sides of the argument, especially that every recruit is a crapshoot, but would you guys give up Denard Robinson or Brandon Graham for that Duke win? I definitely would not. Yes, who knows what Clowney will do, but he's the most hyped DE of the modern recruiting era, he has an extremely high probability of success.