Interesting Perspective by BHGP re: College Basketball.
In an excellent post over at Black Heart Gold Pants, Horace E. Cow makes an excellent point regarding the high volume of three pointers that are attempted by some teams (including us obviously), stating:
In men's basketball in the NCAA this year, players have made 34.5% of threes and 48.2% of twos. The average value, then, of a three-point attempt is 3*.345 = 1.04, and the average of a two is 2*.482 = .964. This fact has led many college (and pro) coaches to the reasonable conclusion that three-point shots are better bets than two-point shots, and that their teams should take as many threes as possible (Todd Lickliter was one of these coaches, actually).
Not all twos are worth less than threes, though: shots at the rim are usually made at a very high percentage (60-70%) and thus the average dunk or lay-up is worth 1.2-1.4 points, much more than the average three. Putting these two facts together (threes are better than most twos, but dunks are better than threes), coaches have developed what could be called a "hollowing-out" strategy on offense: threes and dunks are encouraged, anything in between in discouraged.
That's definitely very positive for Michigan, as the offense seems as if it's predicated on Morris driving and kicking to open shooters, or dishing to Morgan for an easy two. If the team shoots better than average from three point range (which they have in these past two wins, going 10-21 against MSU and 14-28 against Iowa, on the season Michigan is extremely close to average at 34.6% from three), Michigan will obviously do well, and if they don't, well, the losing streak speaks for itself, but this brief analysis shows that a team that shoots a high volume of three pointers and is able to make them at an average rate will have a better offense than if they shot more two-pointers.
This is a humorous chart, but it does prove a point: Michigan's offense is very successful at "hollowing-out" and having easy looks at the rim for Morgan such as these (via umhoops). Morris is the catalyst for this offense, and the way that he can distribute the ball as well as take it to the rim with good success makes him a perfect fit for the offense, and if he can develop a solid 3-point shot, he'll be Big Ten POY material in his career here.
Just thought this would be interesting to share and that Michigan doesn't run a "live or die by the three offense" as much as they run an offense that's statistically advantageous for a team to run, and as long as Michigan can improve shooting the three (which they will, presumably), they will have a great offense. Now for this thread to be buried behind all the NSD threads...
February 1st, 2011 at 5:51 PM ^
My bad. Won't happen again.
February 1st, 2011 at 5:57 PM ^
the new guy with 2 mgopoints must have had it up to here with the double posts!
edit: seriously though, welcome! but there are many other posters who are angry they didn't get to it first.
February 1st, 2011 at 5:51 PM ^
Site Search result for "BHGP"
First result: http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/bhgp-graphical-analysis-iowa-game
February 1st, 2011 at 5:52 PM ^
i need to re-up my prescription of crazy pills
February 1st, 2011 at 7:49 PM ^
Interesting stats on shooting but of course it is never as simple as it may seem. For example, inside drives and shots are much more effective at drawing fouls, something good teams use to their advantage. I expect us to be much better in that area next season as these young guys get more comfortable going to the basket.