Interesting DC Don Brown Statistical Tidbits

Submitted by Indonacious on

Really interesting stats courtesy Sports Source Analytics.
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SportSourceA

Since '10 among active DCs w/min 3 yrs exp, only Venables, D. Mason, Foster, & Shoop have created higher % of negative plays than Don Brown.

Top five FBS defenses in 2015 regular season that created the highest % of negative plays: #BCEagles #Mizzou #Clemson #NCState & #PennState

New DC Don Brown. His def forced an average 3rd down distance of 9.1 yards in 2015. Best in FBS.

Only 3 FBS defenses in '15 that forced opponents into average yards to go of 8.5+ yards on 3rd Down were: #BCEagles #Clemson and #PennState

The 5 FBS def that gave up lowest percentage of plays of 20+ yds in '15 regular season: #Buckeyes #Hawkeyes #PennState #Gators #BCEAagles

Top 10 FBS def giving up fewest pts per opponent's poss: #Wisconsin #Bama #Buckeyes #BC #Gators #Northwestern #FSU #UGA #Michigan #Clemson

The five FBS defenses in 2015 that gave up less than 20 total touchdowns: #BCEagles #Wisconsin #RollTide #FSU and #Wolverines

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LSAClassOf2000

December 21st, 2015 at 12:36 PM ^

Boston College's average TO margin was 0.25 with an overall margin on the year of +3. Consider 10 recovered fumbles and 13 INTs made (23 gained) versus 11 fumbles lost and 9 INTs thrown (20 lost), so basically 3/12 = 0.25, if you're interested in the math.

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RobM_24

December 21st, 2015 at 11:59 AM ^

I know what you mean. I'm sure it's possible that those just stick out more bc of the distance, but it sure seems like we've sucked at 3rd & Long. My brother and I watch games together, and we're always joking about 3rd&1 or 4th&1 is the best case scenario for our defense.

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Brhino

December 21st, 2015 at 11:19 AM ^

BC nearly matched Michigan's 3 shutouts.  It's just that they gave up a 4 yard touchdown drive to NIU and a -2 (!) yard field goal drive to Wake Forest.  

Joined: 09/08/2009

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alum96

December 21st, 2015 at 11:21 AM ^

Lots of good company in that list with Mason of Vandy, Shoop of PSU, Aranda of Wisc, Foster of VaTech, and Venables of Clemson.  If we can get a Shoop clone who can handle OSU a bit better than PSU has it would be a very good outcome.

Also interesting that both Shoop and Brown have extensive Ivy league time.  I wonder if they were ever on the same staff at any point.

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Bambi

December 21st, 2015 at 11:28 AM ^

Yes, let's shit on the one guy who is not 100% convinced by this hire but has real stats and reasons to back it up. If you're not blindly on board with everything that Michigan and this staff does, just get off MGoBlog because you're clearly not a true Michigan fan. I think that's the RCMB way of doing things, and that's obviously a great place to model ourselves after.

Joined: 10/12/2013

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ChuckieWoodson

December 21st, 2015 at 11:51 AM ^

Calm down, Bambi.  Just a little gentle ribbing.

Edit: Also, not considered "shitting" as I'm not the one maniuplating the data to serve my purposes (ok that's a bit grandiose, I admit)

Is he held to some higher standard?  Certainly not.  However, if I come on here and cherry picked certain data points and push them as a reference to back up my argument, that's not giving the entire picture.

Joined: 01/13/2012

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alum96

December 21st, 2015 at 11:55 AM ^

haha, thankfully this is the internet or I would have been drawn and quartered in a public square last night for daring to question anything.   If Brown was hired 12 months ago the website would be in shock.  Ddint become a genius in 1 year but perception is reality.

My other retort is Tony Gibson of WVA has the FEI #4 Defense... BC was FEI #5.   When I brought him up as a potential DC candidate 3 weeks ago it was mocked and laughed at by entire website. 

But if Gibson had been hired yesterday the applause would have been deafening. ;)

Gibson also had far better defensives in 2013 and 2014 than BC in a league with better offenses than the ACC.  But Gibson was a non starter while Brown is conquering hero.

Anyhow I am enjoying observing the psychology of it all - fascinates me.

I will own on first glance it boggled me as I only looked 3 yrs back but upon further reflection and data you see reasons why - decent success at UConn DC as well.  Maybe he is John Beilein of football were he is a bright mind who toiled for years at small places - usually those guys are found at some point earlier by blueblood programs but there are exceptions.  I also like that he is aggressive because I liked that Durkin was ...vs Mattison's bend dont break idealogy.

 

 

Joined: 04/28/2012

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stephenrjking

December 21st, 2015 at 12:36 PM ^

I've thought about the Beilein analogy with him as well. He has spent a career working up from lower rungs.

Point in this favor: We tend to think people get identified early, but sports coaching (and especially football, with so many coaches per staff) can and does miss on guys that people just haven't heard of enough. There's a fair amount of "who do you know" and "career momentum" that goes into what guys get jobs at big schools and NFL teams as opposed to lower divisions. 

For example, Gus Malzahn became an ultra-hot coach due to his work at Tulsa and Auburn, and if he gets put to the sword on the Plains next year he'll be snatched up by someone else in a hot second. But he was a just a solid high school coach in Arkansas until his team produced some top prospects, headlined by Mitch Mustain, and Houston Nutt decided to recruit him as an OC. Even then, questions remained about how good Malzahn really was, and his short tenure under Nutt really didn't work out (despite the team having a good year behind Darren McFadden). 

Malzahn got a second chance at lowly Tulsa, and it turned out that he was a really good offensive coach. But he was kind of an out-of-nowhere guy.

Same may be true for Bob Stitt, the Colorado School-of-the-Mines guy that all those high level coaches were quoted as admiring before his move up to Montana this year. Quality coach, never really given a chance.

Point is, there are smart guys at lower levels, working with lower-level talent, that don't have easy paths to the top tier. In contrast, there are guys like Scott Loeffler, who turned a backup QB position here into a coaching career by being on staffs that had good talent to coach. I root for Loeffler, but is there any question that his ability to get high-level jobs is related to the fact that he has always worked for high level programs?

Joined: 03/15/2012

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alum96

December 21st, 2015 at 12:49 PM ^

Yes agree on all this - look at these young OCs hired by rutgers and Maryland - getting opportunities in early 30s some guys never get and others not for 20+ yrs.

Just going thru my own history in workplace and coaching (at much lower level!) I think some quality people are completely missed along the way.  I bet we all see that in our workplaces whatever the career type. 

Sometimes you are content where you are @ that stage of life or not always chasing the brass ring .....somtimes your network is just not as good as others. 

And sometimes 1 decision at 1 point in life can turn your entire trajectory from a fast track high profile college coach vs a guy who had 30 yrs of success at say high school level.  But if that high school coach had taken the other fork in the road 23 yrs ago his career goes to an entire diff path.  Same in any of our workplaces.  

Also frankly some people are just better at self promotion - Beilein types are not "sellers" ...they are "doers".  Often "sellers" get noticed much earlier.  In all workplaces.

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Reader71

December 21st, 2015 at 1:05 PM ^

RE: Tony Gibson. You seem to really want to paint Brown as a one-year wonder, ala Gibson. Brown's resume shows consistently good defenses at schools with a talent disadvantage. This shows an ability to scheme really well so as to mitigate that disadvantage as well as coach players up into the system. Good signs. Which leads to point 2 about Gibson. M fans have experienced his ability to coach guys up. M fans were underwhelmed. Gibson might end up being Buddy Ryan, but M fans are using the evidence presented thus far. I wish Gibson well, and I think we should hire him as soon as he becomes Buddy Ryan, or Don Brown. I hate to continuously reply in disagreement with you because I enjoy your posts. And I don't think anyone will change your mind, which is fine. I just don't think you are making a good faith effort to let logic and evidence win the day.

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alum96

December 21st, 2015 at 1:31 PM ^

My ONLY point w/ Gibson is almost ALL of the cheering yest was due to a cursory glance at stats from 1 year at BC for Brown by most UM fans.  There were not many people here at 5 PM Sunday dissecting his UConn tenure - hell most didnt know where he coached pre BC as of 5 PM yest.  It was cheering based on 1 huge year - the exact same case you could make for Gibson. 

Gibson would have been largely dismissed depsite putting up a similar stat line in 2015.  In fact he was mocked 3 weeks ago a ton in a diff post despite posting similar 2015 data points to Brown.

I parallel that to a backup QB - the guy you dont see often (Brown) always holds more proimse than the guy you are familiar with (Gibson).

I am not comparing the 2 over longer periods - just noting the main reason MOST were excited yest could apply to either coach equally.

p.s. my other posts have put positive comments about Brown last nite and this AM both here and in diary so I disagree on your "not being swayed", etc comment.  You can see such comments even lower on this page.

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BigBlue02

December 21st, 2015 at 3:20 PM ^

Was Brown even on the radar as a possibility before yesterday? You act as if we weren't talking about him because we thought he wouldn't be good, but in reality this hire was a surprise to most so it might take a second to actually look at his resume. Nobody looked at his time at UConn because, up until yesterday, no one really thought he would be our D coordinator. Considering anyone who has an opinion about it has praised the hiring, I'm going to go with them

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stephenrjking

December 21st, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^

In my opinion, nobody on this board has produced more quality content than Alum96. He isn't a huge fan of the Brown hire, got singed for it, gamely continued the discussion, fine.

But the bashing is getting old. If you disagree with him on an issue, (and I think he's a bit too glum about Brown myself and said so in the first thread regarding the hire) fine. But turning it into a recurring thing is absurd. Alum is regularly producing, for free, front-page quality content that isn't available anywhere else. It's not like he's a certain celebrity tv presidential candidate that just says whatever hot takes come to mind; he is coming to his opinions through reasoned analysis. Even if some of it is wrong.

 

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