If Michigan loses to Michigan State does your confidence in the direction that the program is heading change?

Submitted by graybeaver on

I was thinking about how important this game is for Michigan this Saturday against MSU.  Not only is this game important in regards to Michigan winning the Legends division, but also a measuring stick in the progress that Hoke has made since being hired.  This is Hoke's third season at Michigan and historically a good coach at a school like Michigan that has tradition, great facilities, and deep pockets is enough time to build a super power.  That being said it is not like Hoke walked into a perfect scenario.  The team he inherited lacked depth up front and was built to run a system that didn't match what coach Hoke wanted to implement.  It looks like Hoke has finally been able to build some depth up front, but the players are young and raw.  Personally, I think the program is heading in the right direction. Dave Brandon should allow Hoke to coach for the duration of his contract as long as Michigan wins 9 games and is competitive with MSU and OSU.   Now in year five if Michigan has not won a Big Ten championship then it will be time to look for another coach.  The team will be loaded with talent and experience in 2016 for a new coach to step in and succeed immediately. 

FrankMurphy

October 29th, 2013 at 2:46 PM ^

Very few of the players who Hoke actually recruited are upperclassmen. The upperclassmen on this team (who number much fewer than what Michigan is used to) are all either survivors of RichRod's recruit-hemorraging final classes or part of the hybrid 2011 class that didn't even crack the top 20. Hoke only has two full recruiting classes under his belt, which were ranked #7 and #5 per Rivals.

I know it's frustrating, because this program was a rock of stability for most of its existence and yet it seems like we've been in transition mode forever. And yes, everyone hates the fact that there has been a significant gap between Michigan and Ohio State for quite a while (minus the '11 season). But the personnel issues that this program has faced dating back to the late Carr era are well-documented. Carr started to tail off in the latter half of his career and the (perhaps reactionary) RichRod hire turned out to be an epic blunder from which the program hasn't yet fully recovered. That's why we are where we are. Final judgment on Hoke can only be rendered when we've cycled through one full class of Hoke recruits.

markusr2007

October 29th, 2013 at 4:08 PM ^

than it provided Rodriguez.  You typically need 4 to 5 years to recover from the previous admin and buid up your own.  Getting pissed off and grabbing pitchforks at year 3 (UM will probably finish 7-5 to 8-4) just increases the likelihood of travelling down the infamous Baylor experience. Patience.

bighouse22

October 29th, 2013 at 5:53 PM ^

Coach Hoke and the staff deserve more time based on their perormance in the first 3 years.  I also agree that the team is relatively young and the players still have room to develop, but it should not be overstated.  There needs to be some progress this season.  If the team loses and takes a nose dive, it will definitely diminish his prior accomplishments.

Even though I think he needs time, I think it is worth noting that Hoke's best season was his 1st with Rich Rod's players.  RR was not afforded the opportunity to coach seniors because of the horrible performance in the Big Ten, against the main rivals and trainwreck when they got into a bowl game. 

Coldwater

October 29th, 2013 at 2:37 PM ^

It's must win for me. Hoke has to show the team is in a position to win the league title in year three with a mix of his guys and RR guys. You can't let State bitch slap you around. Especially when you bade your entire coaching mission state as: Be Physical!

StephenRKass

October 29th, 2013 at 2:45 PM ^

We could have played hard, had no turnovers, and still lose, say 23-21.

Or, we could play terribly and lose big.

Almost worst, we could play terribly and still win. (unlikely.)

Of course, like all Michigan fans, I want to see us win. But to lose a close, well-played game on the road is vastly different from losing a blowout because a game was called poorly and the team wasn't put in the position to succeed.

To answer your question directly:  a loss to MSU will NOT cause me to lose confidence in the direction the Michigan program is heading in. I believe we're heading in the right direction, and we will see this more in 2014, and see it completely by 2015.

umchicago

October 29th, 2013 at 2:53 PM ^

i think it would be more important in how we lose.  if UM gets embarrassed, that could be a problem.  if we lose a close hard fought game, i don't see big problems.  sparty is pretty good, and they are at home.  but let's just win and start our typical win streak against sparty.

BlueHills

October 29th, 2013 at 3:04 PM ^

Here's the kind of perception about Michigan that I find troubling, a quote from today's Washington Post's Feinstein article on the top four teams:

"Here's another possible twist: Alabama and Oregon are far more likely to lose than Florida State or Ohio State. The Buckeyes play no one - and that includes Michigan - the rest of the season (italics supplied)."

While I think we are certainly someone, how does being perceived as no one affect recruiting, bowl invitations, etc.?

Brady Hoke called his team inconsistent - this isn't my value judgment, though I said exactly the same thing here after PSU. It's my belief that inconsistency is a sign of coaching problems.

This team may not be perfectly loaded with talent on defense, but it certainly has what it takes to slow MSU's offense down, if a Purdue can do it.

The offense clearly is potentially explosive, and despite MSU's defense, has the ability to score points; maybe not as many as it does against lesser defenses, but two or three touchdowns are not out of the question. And with a decent defensive effort, Michigan should be in the driver's seat.

So it seems to me that the difference between winning and losing this weekend is on the coaching staff. Getting the team mentally prepared, physically prepared, and put in a position to win is what coaching is about.

I'm fine with a close game, or even bad breaks causing a loss. But with this team, it's pretty obvious when they aren't being put in a position to win. And if it's that, yes, I will further lose confidence in this staff.

M-Wolverine

October 29th, 2013 at 3:26 PM ^

That is board would be completely unreadable if not for Space Coyote.  I'm not sure how he keeps doing it.

markusr2007

October 29th, 2013 at 4:50 PM ^

MSU has to win it to control their own destiny.  If they lose to UM Saturday, then MSU will requierd help from others to beat UM to get to the title game.

If Michigan loses Saturday, then reaching the title game is probably gone bye-bye, but they can go out and wreck other people's pathetic BIG10 seasons (and maybe Ohio's aspirations) with malice aforethought.

I'd like UM to win this rivalry game because I think the seniors deserve it.

Pit2047

October 29th, 2013 at 5:14 PM ^

You can pretty much throw out anything from before the Rich Rod era in regards to Hoke's teams because it is no longer relevant.  People can look around the counrty and in this conference at other teams doing things well but the fact is Michigan is not at that point yet.  In 2011 we had a strong senior class that took this team, put it on their backs and carried it to a Sugar Bowl, we had a senior class that hadn't beaten a Big Ten rival and refused to lose.  That were also a TALENTED senior class and you can talk about Player Development all you want but talent and stars (which measure talent to a degree) matter.  This is a program with very little stability and program direction right now and that means we have to create whole new one which takes years, not a season and a half.  2011 was the outlier, starting last year we started the rebuiling phase, Hoke wants to take us right back to what we where before, what Bo molded this program to be, a Huge, Tough team that plays extraordinary defense and can run the lights out of the ball because of a fantastic line.  We were the definition of MANBRAWL.  That is what we where for almost 40 years before a sizeable section of the fanbase grew tired and weary of conservative play calling and losing to Ohio and called for a change.  The administration answered and Rich Rodriguez and riding in on a white horse to change the program and make it more exciting for fans.  He basically made Michigan into a bad Big 12 team, an all offense and spread oriented team that can't stop anyone to save their lives.  During his three years he effictively destroyed almost every bit of identity Bo Schembechler, Gary Moeller and Llyod Carr had built for almost 40 years save for one senior class that survived the devastation.  RR seemingly targeted everything that made Michigan great and demolished it.  He took a great defense and made it the worst we have ever seen, he took one of the most productive OL factories in football and deprived it of nourishment (recruited almost no one), he reversed MANBALL, and it took him three years.  So when Hoke came in, he had to reverse what RR had done.  Some changes happened rather quickly like the defense becoming respectable, but some take time, like rebuilding the OL.  That takes at least 3,4 maybe even 5 years depending on how players pan out and are developed.  OL is like no other position on the football field, I don't care what training you've had in high school it is "Lion's winning a Championship" rare to have a guy come in and start right away, ESPECIALLY without EE.  It has happened before and probably will again but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.  On the OL you have to have every single person execute their assignment or you get nowhere offensively, which is what has happened the last two years.  2012 we had basicaly 1/2 an OL on the interior 3 spots, this year we've improved to 1 1/2 if your generous.  Basically we have no guards on this team and we have RR to thank.  OL need about 3 or 4 years in most cases to develop which is why they all redshirt.  If you think that's an excuse then take Glasgow, if he was anywhere near this good last year he would have played. But, more likely he improved leaps and bounds from last year as OL are wont to do and now he is one of the best we have.  ALL of our line should be on this path but roster needs have forced otherwise.  We need to be patient, once the OL comes around and matures, then we will have our team back.  Until then no amount of firing and complaining in the world will fix our football team.

uminks

October 29th, 2013 at 11:14 PM ^

That Bo took a cream puff Michigan team and transformed it into top 5 team within 2 years. Under Chalmers, Michigan was a near .500 team through the 60s,'64 was a lucky season due to the play of Timberlake at QB. OSU thumped them in Chalmers final year. Sometimes a great coach and his staff can transform a team quickly. That '69 upset really helped recruiting but also not having a limit on scholarships helped as well. But I was kind of amazed at how fast Bo turned Michigan around.

Very talented coaches and their staffs can turn around programs fairy quickly, even though their players are young. I was kind of hoping Hoke would take this trajectory but I still think he should be given through the 2015 season before we throw in the towel on him. I think that the odds are 70/30 that Hoke will be a good coach and get back to winning 10 games per season with plenty of BCS bowls, winning the B1G every third year and perhaps winning a National Championship in the new playoff format. If we are still loosing 4 games per season in 2014 and 2015, then it may be time to look for another coach.

Zok

October 29th, 2013 at 5:46 PM ^

Q: Which coach needs to have a good November???

Rittenberg picks HOKE



There are some big-picture questions to be answered about Michigan in November. What is the state of the program right now? Where are the Wolverines headed under Hoke? The recruiting success is undeniable, but it doesn't matter much if it doesn't translate to championships. The great thing about Hoke is he has made the expectations so clear for the Wolverines: Big Ten title or failure. By Hoke's own standards, he has failed for two seasons and the program has failed for nearly a decade. The Sugar Bowl championship in Year 1 was nice, and so was the streak-ending win against Ohio State, but Michigan benefited in both cases from extremely favorable circumstances. This is the month for the Wolverines to truly show they're taking the next step. They'll have a very hard time winning the division without beating Michigan State on Saturday. They could be challenged by Nebraska, Northwestern and Iowa before facing arguably the best Ohio State team they've seen since the 2006 season.



Hoke isn't coaching for his job, a national championship or a dramatic turnaround from a long losing streak. But he needs to show in November that Michigan is taking steps toward a championships on the field, not just on the recruiting trail.

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/87727/take-two-b1g-coaches-seek-strong-finish

 

uminks

October 29th, 2013 at 10:31 PM ^

PSU is not a very good team and we should have won that game by at least a couple TD's! I thought ND would beat Michigan but they did pull that game off. I also predicted that MSU and OSU will beat  us, along with one of the road games, NU or Iowa.

I just hope we play tough and don't let the spartans push us around again. If we play well, we could win. But I'm thinking MSU will win 27 vs 24. It may be 20-3 at halftime and Michigan will try to come back in the 2nd half.

I would like to see the young players develop this year. But overall this will be an 8-4  or 9-3, We will be on an upward trajectory and in a ouple years we will be winning 10 games a year.

deebeeinCanton

October 30th, 2013 at 8:24 PM ^

A better question might be how would your confidence have suffered if Akron didn't screw up at the end of the game and not punch the ball into the endzone.  The Horror II.  (Maybe III).  Or if the Indiana quarterback didn't hurt his hand and ruin their possible comeback.