after watching lots of bowls this week, i have been wondering what would have happened if the ones that got away had not gotten away. i am referring to the illinois game (1st thru 4th and 1 to seal the game) and purdue game (missed PAT, etc) as the winnable games that UM didn't win. you could obviously choose to throw in msu and iowa as those were close, but i don't have the same sort of regret about losing to those two (anger, not regret).
scenario 1 - michigan wins 1 of those games. this gives them a 2-6 conf record, 6-6 total and because iowa goes bcs every b10 team moves up a bowl, the pizza bowl goes to michigan where they face off against ohio. ohio got down early 21-0 to marshall and managed to come back before losing 21-17.
scenario 2 - michigan wins both of those games. this gives them a 3-5 conf record, 7-6 total and because the conference tie breaker goes to better total record, michigan goes to the insight bowl to face iowa state. iowa state won this one 14-13 in a pretty evenly matched game, statistically.
there are obviously many intangibles and reasons why we can't simply plug michigan in, but this is hypothetical so i am gonna. i know national rankings are a bit flawed, but this has really been too long a post already.
hypo pizza pizza bowl - UM v OU
OU (78th O, 46th D) lost closely to Marshall (96th O, 68th D)
michigan had the 44th O and 82nd D. this tells me that UM scores more than marshall, by a 10-14, but lets up more points by a little, 3-7. bottom line - UM wins pizza pizza bowl.
hypo insight bowl - UM v ISU
ISU (103rd O, 99th D)was even with Minnesota (101st O, 61st D).
michigan had the 44th O and 82nd D. again, simplistically, michigan scores many more points, 14-21, and allows more 10-14. bottom line - UM wins insight bowl.
i know this is very remedial, but i really really miss michigan football. i just wish michigan would have been able to pull out these wins against non bowl teams.