fair point that
HS Rankings Represented in AFC/NFC Championship Game
How in the hell was Urlacher recruited as a WR?
I dont know. But I Do know he kicked too! Dude did it all in college!
If it helps any, he was recruited as a WR with a very nasty streak.
He played safety in college and not LB.
You are correct. He also had a very late growing period and then made the switch to lb and the rest is history.
On a different note.
I'm so tired about hearing how people are surprised three starts become so great but they are projected as all conferance players.
Can you imagine the fear he would put into CB/S's in the NCAA? I would feel very bad for whoever was covering him.
Kris frost was recruited as a WR...
He also lined up at fullback and returned kicks. As the best player on a mediocre (slight overstatement) New Mexico team, he did everything.
was a freakish athlete who played S, WR, RB for New Mexico. He had a late growth spurt that enabled him to play LB in the NFL. He can still run even at 260 lbs. The only way to neutralize Urlacher is to run at him, but the Bears front 4 is too disruptive for the team to try to run at him.
Played Safety in college.
To answer your question, someone had an interesting post a few days ago referring to an article where they looked at the top 34 NFL draft prospects and their rankings coming out of high school. It may be of interest to you. Here's the article: http://www.theringer.com/Article/News/55?title=The-Inexact-Science
To my point below, yes this article is exactly the type of analysis I was pointing to.
(sorry I missed it while I was typing the response)
I can't believe that this argument persists. The Rankings are reflective of potential. 5 Star players aren't guaranteed to succeed but they tend to have a greater chance than 1, 2, 3, or 4 Stars. I submit the table below, showing the 5 Star players from the class of 2005, as proof:
|CB||5||Demetrice Morley||Dismissed from School|
|WR||6||Fred Rouse||Dismissed from School|
|DT||9||DeMarcus Granger||No Professional Career|
|OL||13||Reggie Youngblood||No Professional Career|
|CB||17||Jamario O'Neal||No Professional Career|
|RB||21||Toney Baker||No Professional Career|
|DT||22||Callahan Bright||Never Enrolled|
|RB||23||Kevin Grady||No Professional Career|
|OL||25||Dace Richardson||No Professional Career|
|LB||31||Luthur Brown||No Professional Career|
|DT||33||Jerrell Powe||Proj. 3rd Rd. 2011 Draft|
|RB||35||LaMarcus Coker||Dismissed from School|
|WR||36||Selwyn Lymon||Dismissed from School|
|DT||38||Marques Slocum||Dismissed from School|
|LB||39||Darius Dewberry||No Professional Career|
|DT||40||Melvin Alaeze||Never Enrolled|
|CB||41||Derek Pegues||No Professional Career|
|RB||43||Jason Gwaltney||Dismissed from School|
|CB||44||Avery Atkins||Dismissed from School|
|S||47||C.J. Byrd||No Professional Career|
|OL||48||Dan Doering||No Professional Career|
Facts from the Table:
- 27 of the 50 players from the list are on NFL rosters (54% success rate).
- 7 players were dismissed for either academic or disciplinary reasons.
- 2 never enrolled because of clearinghouse issues.
- 1 just completed his college career and is expected to be drafted this year.
Interesting facts not on the table include:
- Former Wolverine Marques Slocum was an undrafted free agent of the Washington Redskins.
- Avery Atkins committed suicide after being dismissed from Florida.
- Scout classifies the top 50 players as 5 Stars. Numbers 51 and 52 that season were Darren McFadden and Ndamukong Suh.
In summary, I would rather have higher rated players, because the chances are they will be very good. However, just because a player is not ranked 5 Stars it doesn't mean he won't be successful.
Aren't you guys a little surprised to see 14% "dismissed from school" rate for these 5-star recruits? IT would seem that these kids threw away their potential....
I assume it's a combination of arrogance and poor study habits. I wonder if the number is better with lower ranked recruits?
Think about how many 3 stars there are vs. 5 stars. It is completely erroneous to take a sample size of 4 NFL teams and show that rankings don't matter bc there are not that many 5 stars playing today. There are only a couple dozen 5 stars per year and hundreds of 3 stars, so yes there are a lot of 3 stars in the NFL.
Its been done in other posts, articles, etc and i am too lazy to look it up, but in terms of percentage - yes rankings matter a lot. 5 stars are way more likely to make it to and succeed in the NFL than 3 stars.
Most have been on this site. A higher recruiting rating increase chance of success. It is not causation in any way, just as being the number one draft pick in the NFL doesn't mean you will be a great player. But it does mean the chances are higher that you will be.
Thanks. I would of thought that if plenty of 3 stars make it into NFL then you probably wouldnt get a significant correlation in the relationship cause the variance would be too dispersed across the spectrum of 3, 4, and 5 stars. If there is a significant correlation, particularly over time, then the rankings make sense. It's just that the anecdotal responses illustrating successes of 3 stars (Mike Hart, AJ Hawk, etc) make it seem most are diamonds in the rough. Obviously, player development, position change, and other factors impact success of any given player. Was just curious.
You never know how the kids are going to develop after getting "professional" grade strength & conditioning.
But I hope it's far less prevalent in college than in the pros. That's a somewhat realistic hope, right?
My brother had a copy of the 1997 Wolverine preview issue. The last page had the "top 100" recruits for 1997 (high school seniors). If anybody has a copy take a look as it's pretty funny - only about 3 of them did anything in college or the pros.
Ya just never know......
I'll bet the information explosion has made recruiting today a whole lot different.
My favorite WTF position switch involves Warren Sapp - he was recruited as a tight end and he could potentially end up as a hall of famer at defensive tackle. Good times.
is a lock to go to the HOF. He was a dominant 3-tech tackle for the Bucs and a perfect fit in Dungy's system.
I'd also be interested in seeing an analysis that takes position into account. Do certain positions project well out of high school?
I think I've read that Olinemen are the hardest to project. I'll bet it's because their bodies have to change so much over four years.
Clay Matthews was an unranked linebacker in the class of 2004 coming out of high school. He walked-on at USC and used the weight room to transform himself.