How would Michigan match up with Houston?
ESPN is predicting Michigan vs. Houston in the Sugar Bowl. If this happened, This is ridiculously premature speculation and there is a significantly more important game coming up next week, but since we're fans, we can actually talk about what might happen if we win that game without the team losing focus. I know that the goal is to beat Ohio fergodsakes, but a BCS bowl win in Brady Hoke's first year would also be nothing short of tremendous.
So I'm wondering, how would Michigan match up with Houston? Houston puts up insane passing numbers, but does so against inferior defenses. Michigan has not really been torched through the air since the Notre Dame game, and it seems as if the defense has improved since then. Would Michigan be favored in a matchup with Houston? Is Houston's offense really the best in the country, or is it inflated by playing in Conference USA? Michigan's passing defense is 14th with 184 yards per game. However, Houston's offense is insane. Houston puts up an absurd 447.5 yards per game in the air, which is more than Michigan puts up in total offense. Their total offense is 618 yards per game, with 53.1 PPG. Their quarterback is makes 2010 Denard look like Joe Bauserman, statistically.
How would Michigan match up against Houston? Would you favor us to win?
November 21st, 2011 at 1:53 AM ^
Houston is insanely overrated based on the level of competition they've faced. They've faced one team from an automatic bid conference, UCLA, and barely beat them. However, anything can happen. I think Oklahoma lost to Boise because Boise didn't take them seriously. I don't think Hoke will let the team take anyone lightly. Ever.
November 21st, 2011 at 4:23 AM ^
er, Oklahoma didn't take Boise seriously....derp
November 21st, 2011 at 9:17 AM ^
What about Alabama vs. Utah? Wisconsin vs. TCU?
Your viewpoint is insanely out of date. Free your mind, son. These undefeated teams that play inferior opponents can be quite good. Also, from their perspective - how many times will they get to play in a BCS game? They'll be bringing everything they have got.
November 21st, 2011 at 9:32 AM ^
Boise and TCU look like good, complete football teams.
Houston looks like Hawaii: Beat zero good teams, run the table, get into a BCS bowl solely based on the fact you finish within the guidelines and there is no other non-AQ, get destroyed.
Edit: In all seriousness, Houston's best win is 38-34 over a 6-5 UCLA team that has lost 4 games by 20+ points that hasn't been remotely good in years. At least Boise, Utah and TCU attempted to toughen up their schedules.
November 21st, 2011 at 9:39 AM ^
You are going to use the ONE bad example of a Non-AQ school in the last 5 years against me? Shame on you.
Further shame on you for bringing up that UCLA game. It was their first game of the season. I think they've gotten a little better since then (it was their third lowest point output of the year, and second most points they have given up). Remember 2008 when we almost beat Utah at home in the first game of the season? Remember when Utah went undefeated that year? Not the same team that played Michigan in that Bowl Game. Come on guys...
November 21st, 2011 at 9:46 AM ^
He's not saying that NO non-AQ school can be good. He's just saying that THIS one doesn't appear to be particularly good.
November 21st, 2011 at 10:03 AM ^
It's a bad example other than "Both offenses are very very pass happy".
1) That was the Sugar Bowl. A flight from Atlanta to NOLA is nothing. A flight from Honolulu to NOLA? Different story.
2) NOLA is quick flight away from Houston.
3) The Sugar Bowl is played indoors, which should help Houston's passing game. (I only say "should" because that didn't work for Hawaii - but I blame that on the travel and them "just being happy to be there")
November 21st, 2011 at 10:19 AM ^
Did Hawaii arrive the night before the game? Two days?
Exactly like Houston, Hawaii was known for their record-breaking quarterback, going undefeated and beating exactly no one. Once they faced a real defense, they got beat 41-10.
I would be amazed and gladly admit I am wrong if Houston were to beat a respectable opponent (I think they would stack up just fine against Louisville), but I just don't see it.
November 21st, 2011 at 11:32 AM ^
They arrive a week before the game. The flight doesn't mean anything.
And you say Houston will bring all they can to prove they belong there, but then say Hawaii was just happy to be there. How do we know Hawaii wasn't going all out to prove they belong and Houston won't just be happy to be there?
November 21st, 2011 at 10:09 AM ^
Utah also beat a very good TCU team that year as well as a solid BYU team.
Houston has nobody on their schedule.
Their calling card is their pass attack.
This is the rankings of the pass defenses they've played
17, 53, 63, 72, 91, 96, 102, 113, 116, 117.
Minnesota is number 62 btw.
Total defenses for their opposition.
45, 52, 58, 74, 79, 89, 101, 102, 113, 118.
Minnesota is 93.
So they are known for their offense, namely their passing offense, but have faced maybe 2 defenses you could call respectable all year. Granted one of them was ECU and they killed them 56-3, but ECU is a 5-6 CUSA team.
November 21st, 2011 at 10:14 AM ^
Any idea where Northwestern is ranked?
November 21st, 2011 at 10:16 AM ^
Total defense: 84
Scoring defense: 65
November 21st, 2011 at 1:54 AM ^
Our stats were inflated too when we played the Minnesota's of the world. I think it's nearly impossible to tell how good Houston really is.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:02 AM ^
I agree with the second sentence...
But Minnesota's the only B1G team we play that won't make a bowl game, unless HoosierQuest fails this weekend. Even WMU, EMU and SDSU are all above .500, for what it's worth. Michigan has maybe 3 quality wins between ND, Nebraska, and Illinois and NW...but that's at least something. The B1G may not be very good this year but we've been competitive in every game.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:28 AM ^
having 8 of our schools defenses ranked #28 or higher and 3 of them in the top 10 speaks to the stregnth of the conference (amongst other things)
November 21st, 2011 at 2:49 AM ^
Definitely. I think if we have to rank the conferences it's clear to me that SEC is the best, but why isn't the Big Ten second? Just because there isn't a clear-cut best team in the conference, or even a top two or three, doesn't mean the conference is awful. I'd put the Big Ten on par with the Big 12 and Pac 12 this year.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:54 AM ^
Or it may speak to that fact that the offenses in the Big Ten aren't that good this year. I am beginning to think it may be a little of both, but I think it is a knock on the offenses more. If you take a look there just isn't a whole lot of talent on offense for most teams in the conference. I think it is a safe assumption to believe that the offenses are more down this year than they have been in any recent year.
November 21st, 2011 at 8:39 AM ^
Besides Denard and perhaps Russel Wilson, what QB's in the B1G does a team fear? Who are the big playmakers in the conference? I think the conference is this year is historically weak at QB and playmakers overall.
November 21st, 2011 at 12:25 PM ^
It's hard to deny that Cousins is quality.
doesn't strike fear into their hearts but he can make them pay.
November 21st, 2011 at 8:49 AM ^
That is a good point, you need only to look at QB and RB play to see how far the conference has fallen. How many NFL quarterbacks are there on the B1G teams? Maybe COusins and Russell Wilson? And same at RB who knows if Monte Ball will be any good?
November 21st, 2011 at 8:57 AM ^
This.
If the SEC were claiming this, with 10 teams bowl eligible, we'd be hearing nothing but "parity" and "top to bottom strength".
Because it's the B1G, however, we're told it is top to bottom weakness, and the d's only look good because the offenses are down.
November 21st, 2011 at 10:22 AM ^
I really don't agree with your conclusion. Have you seen the QB play in the B1G this year? Who is going to get qb of the year? Russel Wilson?
Cousins is not playing really well. Denard is nothing like he was last year, Miller throws 10 passes a game. T-Magic is on par with Drob. Gray is meh, McGloin is a walk on and PSU only avergaging 21pts/games. Scheelhause? No.
The offenses in this league are turrible, just turrible.
November 21st, 2011 at 9:10 AM ^
with every thing you said, but I actuall think we are going to find out the B1G may be better than we think. Alright, Hypo:
1. Wisconsin v. Stanford - Both very physical football teams, both play effective bend but don't break. Wisky has a somewhat suspect secondary that Luck could pick on, but the last time Oregon face a mobile quarterback if was like 14 days ago and they were getting beat by 3 touchdowns. Wisky by a touch.
2. Michigan v. Houston - We don't stand a chance at shutting down Houston through the air, but they don't stand a chance of stopping Denard at all. Meeeech by two touches.
3. State v. Arkansas - Tough, I will give you that. If the MSU secondary remains healthy for the remainder of the season, may be a toss-up. But because F State, the Hogs by a field goal.
4. Penn State v. S. Carolina - Call me crazy, but really any team that could be in this slot right now agains the OBC I am giving them the nod. Carolina is gassed, withouts its gamechanging running back, and PSU is stout. Lions in a close one.
5. OSU . Florida - Really who cares, but really, who is Florida right now. I got Ohio here, but again, who cares.
I see the B1G fairing better than expected in the post-season. True, if Bama v. LSU is the championship game, it may not be a fair test, but I am not buying the B1G as garbage theory.
November 21st, 2011 at 9:18 AM ^
If you think Arkansas would only beat state by a field goal, you haven't been watching any Arkansas games this year.
November 21st, 2011 at 9:22 AM ^
probably 3 full Arkansas games this year. I think our belief about State is influenced too much by the Alabama game last year. That was too much too soon for State, but I don't think it is indicative of their team or their chances this year. I think State is pretty damn good. I think Michigan is good, and State took care of Michigan with room to spare. But this highlights my point, I think we assume we are watching two different "brands" of football and that the B1G cannot possibly compete with these teams. I disagree.
November 21st, 2011 at 9:48 AM ^
My point is this - you are assuming the #3 team in the nation would only beat State by a Field Goal is ridiculous.
- Dantonio SUCKS in bowl games. Loss by 3 to BC in Champs Sports Bowl. Loss by 12 to Georgia in Capital One Bowl. Loss by 10 to Tex Tech in Alamo Bowl. Loss by ~ 500 to Alabama in Capital One Bowl.
- Michigan at Home is not the same Michigan team on the Road. This is blatantly clear. I also think the timing of the MSU game has hurt us, as the team is clearly better now than earlier in the season. I am not putting a whole lot of weight into "Michigan is great, and State beat us, so that makes them excellent" meme.
- [Edit] Third point - Dantonio spends approximately 10x more effort preparing for Michigan each year than his bowl opponent. Whatever State does against us should be discounted based on that fact alone.
Anyway. If you want to take State +3 in a bowl game, I will send you my email and we'll set up a bet via escrow.
November 21st, 2011 at 12:20 PM ^
I actually think we could stop Houston through the air. Keenum doesn't do very well passing when he's pressured. Enter: Mattison. I think that Floyd and Countess are the 2 best corners they would face all year.
November 21st, 2011 at 7:58 AM ^
It lost to USC the less margin than Oregon.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:01 AM ^
I think Michigan has too much talent and speed. I see us more as a battle tested team compared to Houston.
November 21st, 2011 at 3:08 AM ^
Exactly. Who's is Houston's best win? A 4 point victory over UCLA in the first week of the season. That is a ridiculously unimpressive schedule, that includes a one-point win over Louisiana Tech.
November 21st, 2011 at 4:48 AM ^
Time has been our friend this season. Given the extra practice time, the coaches could really cook up some interesting material on both sides of the ball. And for the players it's just more time in the new system. I think Michigan could really do some dirt in a bowl game, even against a team like Oklahoma or Oregon that's falling from contention: making a statement vs. mitigating dissapointment is a favorable matchup.
November 21st, 2011 at 8:55 AM ^
"Extra practice time" Yikes! I hope the Freep doesn't read that. I doubt they'll be able to figure out what you really meant.
November 21st, 2011 at 5:56 AM ^
We got that beeeeonegeeeee speeeed.
November 21st, 2011 at 8:21 AM ^
That's great man. I had to read it a couple of times before I got it.
November 21st, 2011 at 10:22 AM ^
well played, sir.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:01 AM ^
I would like to say very well but look at the mid-major teams that have played AQ teams in BCS bowls:
-Boise State beats Oklahoma in huge upset, 2007 Fiesta Bowl
-Hawaii gets properly slaughtered by Georgia, 2008 Sugar Bowl
-Utah beats Alabama in huge upset, 2009 Sugar Bowl
-TCU stuns Wisconsin, 2011 Rose Bowl
All four times the AQ team and their fans likely assumed they got an easy draw. Three of those times they got popped.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:20 AM ^
That Hawaii team is as close as it gets to this year's Houston team, offense and defense-wise. Size, QB pressure, and ball control beats them
November 21st, 2011 at 2:46 AM ^
last year Georgia Tech lost to Air Force, and Georgia lost to UCF.
November 21st, 2011 at 3:03 AM ^
lol Georgia Tech vs. Air Force. That game must have had more options than a hedge fund. (zing!)
November 21st, 2011 at 2:06 AM ^
Case Keenum hasn't faced a defensive line like ours. Our guys go at it and create chaos and I don't think Keenum will be as comfortable as he has been for 11 games now. On the other side of the ball, Houston's run defense isn't very good. We run the ball extremely well. I don't think Houston can stop Toussaint or Denard, and we can use those two to control the clock and keep Keenum off the field.
It's a lose-lose for us. I'm sort of hoping to face a Stanford or something. I think they're overrated and would like to see us beat Andrew Luck.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:07 AM ^
I don't understand how everyone is so enamored with the win over Nebraska. Yes they were ranked and yes we won handily. However, we overlook the fact that they committed inexplicable turnovers and have lost at home against Northwesten. Also, OSU should have beat them if not for an epic meltdown and our offense has not performed against anyone with a servicable defense.
I'm surprised at the number of people here that feel that like the OSU game is a mere formality en route to a possible BCS game. Let's take a step back and realize that NU isn't very good, and we're not exactly dominant ourselves.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:17 AM ^
Planting a helmet directly on the ball and a textbook strip-sack are not "inexplicable turnovers." Those are great plays by well-coached players. The other kick-return fumble was a bit weaker, but it's the sort of thing that happens frequently in football. The only really wacky play was the fumbled snap that lead to the blocked punt. Pretty sure we still win without that.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:26 AM ^
We dominated a really good team in every facet of the game.We built off a big win in Illinois by playing even better. There were a couple of mistakes, but the team is starting to play some of its best ball. I wouldn't say that people are overlooking Ohio so much as they're more optimistic about our chances against them, more so than the last few years.
Furthermore, the OP was posting about a scenario that ESPN and several other prognosticators have predicted. This is a hypothetical match up until we beat Ohio and get paired up with Houston. I do hope no one is overlooking Ohio. I like our chances, but they've been unlucky in a couple games and are a game opponent.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:28 AM ^
Some people are never satisfied, I guess.
November 21st, 2011 at 8:24 AM ^
It's nice to complain and read about about victory not being good enough.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:34 AM ^
The topic is brought up because both ESPN and CBS are currently projecting a Michigan-Houston Sugar Bowl, not because the OP or others think the OSU game is a formality.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:37 AM ^
Our offense has not performed against anyone with a serviceable defense? Really? What about Illinois, which we scored 31 points on and who is 9th in total defense? What about Notre Dame, which is 29th in total defense, which we scored 35 points on with over 400 yards? The only good defense we've struggled against is MSU (Iowa was not a great defense, but we struggled there anyway because of Borges' playcalling, drops by receivers, and terrible, terrible officiating).
Nobody, but nobody on here feels liks the OSU game is a formality before a BCS game. I would MUCH rather have an OSU win than a BCS win (fergodsakes). That game is much more important than bowl position or outcome. And OSU remains a very dangerous team, with talented playmakers on offense and defense who can sometimes play well enough to beat Wisconsin but sometimes play poorly enough to lose to Purdue. But is there some kind of idea that if we start talking about any game other than the one next week we will lose 'focus', as if what we said on this board had any impact whatsoever on the outcome of the game? Are you trying to not get 'complacent' as if how you feel will matter to whether the game is won or lost? Give me a break.
Isn't the hallmark of a great defense the ability to make another team play like crap? The hallmark of a great offense the ability to make an opposing defense look stupid, slow, and weak? And Michigan did a great job of both of those things yesteday. Nebraska helped widen the margin of victory with mistakes, for sure, but that shouldn't take away from the fact that it was the best performance by a Michigan team since at least the Capital One Bowl, and probably since Notre Dame in 2006.
November 21st, 2011 at 8:45 AM ^
Thank you. I hate the response that we shouldn't overlook the next game. Unless some of us on the board are players too, it's not going to effect the game's outcome. Plus it's fun.
November 21st, 2011 at 2:41 AM ^
Michigan has put up some numbers on a few servicable defenses. Illinois is the #26 defense in the country and in the top 5 in TFL, Nebraska has the #21defense without their star DT, Notre Dame has the #18 defense, and Sparty has the #4.
November 21st, 2011 at 7:53 AM ^
STFU
and
GTFO