How Teams With Top 30 Offenses and Sub 100 Defenses Have Fared NCAA Tournament

I'll be a bit surprised if we make it to the Sweet Sixteen.

Though I wish whoever compiled the data would've shown how these kinds of teams perform relative to their seed and how that compares to teams with an equal offense/defense balance and those with subpar offenses and superb defences.

1st in offense and 80th in defense.

2014 Michigan and Duke are on that list.  Likely meeting in the Sweet 16.  Interesting to see how that turns out.

So of the teams seeded 4 or higher, 4/9 of them went to the sweet 16 or farther.  That seems...about right.

I only see one Beilein-coached team on there (not counting this year's) and it's the 2005 WVU team that went to the Elite Eight.  

I can't find RR's 2010 team on here and I know they fit the criteria.

<ducks>

This is really misleading for the reasons Brian talked about it. The difference between the 1st and 2nd best offense vs. the 9th and 10th best offenses aren't the same. Michigan is ELITE on offense, not just a top-30 decent offensive team. Also, we are borderline sub-100. Just tooking a quick look, it seems the really elite offenses often made it to the sweet 16, and a lot of those teams have defenses at a far worse rank than Michigan's.

For teams in this category. Just eyeballing it, nine this year. Don't see any other close years.

I don't think we have a Dwyane Wade on this team (as much as I love LeVert and Stauskas)

I really thought we defended better than we have all year against Ohio State and Michigan State. We just couldn't rebound against MSU. We forced misses, but they just rebounded them and got more opportunities.

Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade's teams are both on the list.  As is the team of KEVIN PITTSNOGGLE

Even so, I do like our chances of getting to the Sweet Sixteen bracket - currently estimated at about 62%. While Wofford and the other two potential opponents in the way (Texas and Arizona State) all have better defensive efficiency numbers than us, our offensive efficiency is far above all of them. We defenitely have this going for us, and that being said, there is not a lot of separation between teams even dozens of spots apart. At least to the point where we might very well meet Duke should we survive, we match up well enough all the same with those who might be in our way. 

When this happens, I think it means that either teams bomb from 3 or have a King James type player who scores a ton, but doesn't play much D.Over the course of the year, making a bunch of 3s is obviously high variation, but averages out.

Just curious, where was last year's Michigan ranked in this?

There are 9 such teams in 2014, compared to 5 in 2013?  Seems like 2014 is already breaking some trends.

For whatever reason, this team can consistently light up any kind of defense on even an average night.  We only have to play average defense (i.e. 100ish ranking) to win a game by double digits.  I think a Final Four appearance would be a surprise, but its all about matchups.  We are unlikely to play a top 75 offense in the first two rounds, and our third round game is likely against a team with a 104 defensive efficiency and nearly identical offensive efficiency rating.  These stats don't matter until we get to Wichita State/Louisville... which will require a lights out game from 3 for us to advance.

For the record, what was our stats last year?

We are not built for a deep tourney run in most years...this year the draw sets up nice for us, but usually teams like Kentucky or Oklahoma St. end up in the 7/10 game rather than the 8/9 game because they want to reward the #1 seed.

IMO, we lucked out and got a favorable draw...most agree that we should be in the Sweet 16 and I think we're an Elite 8 team because I think we play Duke similar to how MSU just played us...I think we just have an extra gear because of the redemption/revenge factor. After that, who knows who we draw and at that point you're going to play a very good team regardless of your draw or region. At that point it's just about who plays the better game because usually both teams are damn good.

That said, I think this team would've been a PRIME upset candidate if we had a tougher draw. We don't play defense, we're not a tough team and we struggle rebounding. If we shoot the ball well, we can literally beat any team in the country (including every 1-seed) by double figures. If we don't...we can lose to 90% of the teams in the tournament field.

And some of you may say "well isn't that every team?" No. And look no further than last year. We struggled shooting the ball in the first 3 games and found ways to win them all. It wasn't until the Florida game when we got hot and started hitting from everywhere. If I'm not mistaken, we shot better in the last 3 games than we did in the first 3. Obviously the last 3 had much tougher competition.

So you can win games when you don't shoot well. Especially when you're a solid defensive team.

One advantage that I think helps us more than most is we finally get out of conference and we're tough to prepare for. Teams aren't familiar with us or our style and they don't have anything to compare to in their league. Meanwhile, we face a million different styles so we can go from a VCU pressure to KU's height to UF's bulk to Syracuse's zone and still be okay.

One more thing...I also like us in the Duke game because Beilein has a week to prepare. We'll be ready.

So in short. In most years...I think this metric is accurate and it wouldn't shock me if this Michigan team wouldn't make it out of the 2nd round. THIS year, I think we lucked into a favorable draw and we make it to at least the Elite 8.

Of the 9 teams seeded 4th or higher, 4 of them were able to make the sweet 15. 

The teams seeded 5th or lower performed really bad.

I like UM's draw.  I think making the FF is a bit of a stretch, not that it's impossible, but I think they have a good chance to make the second weekend. 

Majority of the offense heavy teams seem to be loaded on the West and Midwest side of the bracket, it seems. 

Just as I would suspect. A lot of shitty outcomes

If our shooting gets hot enough we could ride it all the way to the finals. If it doesn't, Texas could beat us with an extraordinary game of their own. I think we'll do well enough to get Duke and I'll take us in that rematch. After that, who knows?

Teams can get into the paint on this team seemingly at will and they are not particulary big or physical. They have an incredible amount of talent but physical, pesky teams give them trouble.

I assume the numbers in your table for all non 2014 teams are KenPom's end of year rankings, meaning final numbers after the tournament has concluded. Look at the jump Michigan's defense made in KenPom's rankings last year before the tournament started and after it ended, almost 30 spots up if I remember correctly. I imagine that teams with a top 30 offense and 100+ defense entering the tournament that have gone on to make a tournament run ended with a top 100 defense. These teams will not be listed using your method. This data is potentially very misleading and cause for unnessecary concern. 

most of these are 1st or 2nd round exits which is obviously the most common thing to happen in the tournament. I would assume a similar chart with elite defenses and awful offenses might be similar, perhaps a couple more that advance to the sweet 16/elite 8/etc but i'd think it be very similar as an overall percentage. 

What scares me is a team like mizzou from a couple years back that had the number one offense was seeded 2 and lost in the first round.  That is just the type of team that we are, wofford is better than charlotte and texas/asu is at least as good as the middle of the big ten and we lost to indiana and beat purdue by 1 with off shooting nights.  The biggest problem I see for us is not having a trey burke or jabari parker, a guy who when the threes are not falling can still take over a game and score 20.  Stauskas is great but won't break 20 if his jumpshot isn't falling. 

Also people comparing us to last year, it doesn't make sense, there will be no mitch mcgary this year, last years team loses to kansas without mcgary last year so looking at how the teams entered the tourney is going to give you a false sense of hope.

What I am confused about is WHY we dont play good defense, or even average defense for a team with these sort of players - at least when our starters are playing. 

Walton should be a good on the ball defender, Caris should be, and GR3 should be (when not facing a physical opponent which is 60%+ of the time).  Morgan is a good defender.  I realize Nik is not great.  But of our starting 5, 4 should in theory be pretty darn good at what they do yet that 3 game display in the BTT was some of the worse defense of the year.   I do realize Irvin is not a good defender, Spike gets overpowered a bit, and Horford is... well Horford - but when our starters are out there, the defense should be adequate.  And before people say 100 out of 300 is adequate, I mean adequate versus BCS conference peers, which I'd put at 50-75.

That said the draw offers no excuses in the first 2 games.  They have to beat 1 team that is top 15 / not in a tailspin late in the season to get to the Elite 8.  If they do that it will help the chart out above but yes we saw with the OSU game (the only game we shot well of the 3 in the BTT) that even when we shot the lights out of the gym early, OSU was still within 12 because they got to the lane just about anytime they wanted and there are a lot better offensive minded teams than OSU out there and I believe that is where the eventual undoing should be. 

Is there a spreadsheet version of these?