There will be one team from the Big 10 and that will be the winner of the championship game. We would need to win our last two and have State lose their last two just to get into the championship game which we would need to win.
How realistic are Michigan's BCS chances?
The Big Ten has had a second at large team every year since 2005, and there has been some pretty bad ones, including a 3 loss 13th ranked Illinois team in '07. Adding the 5th BCS game virtually guranteed B1G & SEC would get a 2nd team except in rare circumstances.
There was no non-auto teams at-large births in 2005. In the history of the BCS only one time has a non-auto qualified team won an at-large from outside the B1G, SEC or ND and that was in 2000-01 with a 10-1 Oregon State team. Combined (ND, SEC, B1G) non-AQ at-large births vs. other conferences its like 16-1. Plus you add the fact that in this hypothetical world we just beat Nebraska and OSU on national TV two weeks in a row plus its Michigan fergodsakes and I really like chances of getting an invite over Standford in particular.
I dunno though, TCU just freed up a spot for everybody, who else would get it? Maybe ACC, not the Big East. At which point it would be between 2 loss Michigan and a combo of Stanford, Oregon, OSU, and OU
Edit: Nevermind I totally forgot about Houston
If we win out, we would
A) be 10-2, with 3 quality wins (ND, NEB, OSU), and
B) probably be #2 in the B1G in overall record
So I would say pretty good. The B1G might not send 2 to the BSC, but if it does we would probably get the second spot. Bowls usually like the best non championship game team over the loser of the championship game, too.
Beating OSU won't qualify as a quality win this season (God, it feels good to type that!).
Note to the OP: MSU, Nebraska and UM are in the Legends division not the Leaders. Simple way to remember: UM's slogan is "The Leaders and Best" so we are, quite naturally, in the Legends division.
I meant to neg you. Beating Ohio always qualifies as a quality win. NO INDICATING CONTRAST ABOUT IT
I always want to kill Ohio, but whether they count as a good win or not has nothing to do with us or our rivalry. Do you really think if OSU was making a presentation to the Fiesta Bowl in 2008 they would list "quality teams we beat: Michigan"?
They're a hated rival, that doesn't make them a quality win.
Wouldn't it have been hilarious if, at the debate the other night, Rick Perry had said, "Opps"?
Though we haven't looked like a BCS team, I would say if we win out our chances are 100%. Boise lost, and when it comes down to it, bowl organizers pick a team that travels well and will make them money (us) over a one-loss or two-loss team who won't
and there is a huge pent-up demand from the Michigan fan base for a BCS bowl game.
not going to happen 5% if they win the last 2
There is a nonzero chance of a BCS berth. But lets get to 10 wins before we even talk about it.
As an a less than 5% chance. Shoot, less than 1% chance. Insert Dumb and Dumber quote. I mean, yeah, it's possible...but a LOT of stuff would have to happen. And I'm not banking on any of that.
A lot of stuff like Michigan winning their next two? What else would need to happen? Other than possibly OSU beating Oklahoma (which they're favored to do).
I don't know about Oklahoma/Ok State. I feel like Ok State has a low enough profile that one loss might eliminate them from a BCS bid whereas Oklahoma might make it if they lose to Ok State.
True, I posted that thinking about a two-loss Oklahoma vs. a two-loss Michigan. We get in 99/100 on that, IMO.
I hadn't even considered OSU getting left out.
I really don't know about it either way. I know Stanford and Oregon have a great shot. The Arkansas/LSU/Alabama/Georgia group will have to seriously bone something up to not get two teams in. Houston or Boise probably get in. Oklahoma and Ok State have a great shot. No way two ACC teams get in and the Big East might sell their BCS bid for a bag of Tostitos and a guarantee that they won't have to pay for $5 million worth of tickets.
If you add those chances up and combine them with Michigan's drawing power, it becomes really unlikely Michigan isn't asked to a game at 10-2.
You're insane if you think the #2 team in the country, with the #2 offense in the country, losing in the last week of the season to a top 5 team gets passed by a middle of the pack B1G team.
If we don't play in B1G title game, we can't lose it, so we'd definitely be in, though as an at-large.
The SEC is loaded. Alabama and LSU are probably locks for BCS Bowls. I'd say Georgia, South Carolina, and Arkansas would also have a better chance of making it to a BCS game than a 10-2 Michigan team. If more than 3 SEC teams are allowed in BCS games, it would be tough to see Michigan in there.
My understanding was only 2 from a conference can make it
Only two teams can go from a conference.
SEC is good
but even they have to adhere to the two-teams-per-conference limit
they are limited to 2
No I'd love to go to a BCS game, but the Big Ten will get 1 bid and Michigan would go to the Capital One Bowl if they win out.
fergodsake just beat Ohio
This year they ARE our BCS game.
Loser of tonight's game, Houston, Oklahoma, and Alabama are your at large bids.
I'm inclined to agree, but if Stanford beats Oregon tonight, the ducks only have one impressive victory (Arizona St.) and two losses. They might snag a BCS bid...but maybe not.
Also, they'd still have to beat USC next week.
with the 112th ranked SOS (#21 in the predictor)
SMU was #45 with the 72nd ranked schedule (#57 in the predictor)
Tulsa was #22 w/ the 33rd ranked schedule (#38 in the predictor)
Houston doesn't have it wrapped up yet. But it looks like we'll need Boise to fall below #16, as it doesn't seem as if the Big East will get a team up to #16.
Missouri beat Kansas in the regular season. Then Missouri lost in the Big XII title game and Kansas ended up going to the Orange Bowl with a 10-2 record. So it's possible.
The Big 12 gets both Oklahoma and Ok. State. The Pac-12 gets Oregon and Stanford. The SEC gets LSU and Alabama. B1G, Big East, ACC get conference champs. The last at-large spot will go to Houston, or the loser of the ACC championship game if both Va Tech and Clemson get there. The Sugar Bowl gets the last pick, so it's all about who they want the most.
• Oregon still faces USC after the Stanford game tonight
• Stanford still faces ND
• Houston could lose to either SMU or Tulsa
• (but I'd still worry about Boise snagging a Top 16, Big East-aided auto-spot)
Clemson still plays South Carolina before the ACC champ game
VT still plays improving Virginia in a rivalry game
I believe Michigan has a 100% chance if they win their last two games. 0% if they lose one.
That said, I can't think of any team that should end up in the BCS that I'd be comfortable with Michigan playing. Maybe Houston. I don't know if Michigan can hang with the scoring machines out West and they wouldn't score against Alabama/LSU.
Michigan just isn't an elite team yet.
The Big East. I think Michigan could win that game; but how likely is it that we would play them though?
Northwestern. Northwestern has lost a few headscratchers this year but they've won a few too. They always put up at least 4 scores so I think the last game at home against sparty will be something of a shootout and they'll be playing with momentum after a likely 5th straight win so I think they can make a game of it and help sparty lay an egg. If we win out and Sparty loses to Northwestern (not too much of a stretch) then our chances go way up.
Doesn't matter if Sparty loses again. Someone will lose the Big 10 title game. That team won't go to the BCS with 3 losses (minimum). A 10-win Michigan team with wins over Nebraska and OSU will get to a BCS game. They're too attractive from a bowl organizer standpoint. The official Big 10 runner up will end up in the Citrus Bowl.
a 1 loss Alabama who doesn't play in the SEC Championship, next to a 2 loss Arkansas with losses only to #2 Alabama and #1 LSU, and a top 10 2-loss South Carolina if they beat Clemson while we're a (maybe) 15th ranked 3rd place B1G school after winning out. I know we're a big revenue generator and that may trump all, but it still seems like a longshot to justify putting us ahead of a possible 3 top 10 schools with equal wins and better quality opponents in 2 or fewer losses. If we make it to and through the B1G Championship I would definitely agree.
How does it help Michigan get a BCS spot if MSU loses to Northwestern?
we have a good chance of making it. I'll also be happy with the Capital One bowl though.
....I would think that, considering conference records as well, our chances are not all that good. We would need some improbable collapses to have a shot, and we face one of the teams that would require an improbable collapse.
Very, very small.
Outside of the auto-bids, the BCS is largely able to pick whomever they want for the bowls. So if UM is anywhere close to the required rankings - top 14 I think in the BCS - they'll definitely be considered. UM travels well, and there are slim pickings beyond the auto-bids; I only see Oregon/Stanford loser, maybe Texas, and that's it.
Of course, win 2 more games and then let's see what happens.
Texas has 3 losses after today to Missouri; plus they have to play a still dangerous Kansas State team, Baylor, and go to College Station, no way they're getting through all that or with their 3 losses.
What I think it would come down to is 10-2 Michigan against a 11-1 OSU or a 10-2 OU. I think the SEC and PAC have locked down 2 bids, so all that's left is how OSU/OU finish.
I disagree with anyone that thinks we're a lock if we win out. There should be plenty of respectable 1 loss teams to fill it, and if there aren't the odds of UM being the best of the 2 loss teams aren't great. The chanes are less than 10% i we win out. If we don't win out, it obviously drops to basically 0%.
With that said, it's beatiful to know there are 3 games left (counting bowl) and the team has already exceeded their win total from last year, under a brand new coach bringing in a likely top 5 recruiting class.
10-2 with marquee wins to end the season will get a second team to the BCS. That second team will be Michigan. Pollsters always remember how you ended the season more than how you began it. Also, Michigan "travels well," and the maize and blue uniforms with the iconic helmet influences a lot of decision-makers.
The bowls are a beauty contest, and a 10-2 Michigan would look very, very good to the bowls. I'm selfish enough to be perfectly happy if they come down to the Tampa Bay area for the Outback Bowl, though.
I know this is long but that's because I actually was in the process of writing a diary about this very subject and decided to just add to the discussion here.
There are two things that need to be taken into consideration 1) Michigan's chances to win their division and ultimately the conference and 2) The Rest of the BCS equation.
Michigan has to win out and MSU has to lose out just to make it to the title game and then win the title game to secure an auto-bid. This is extremely unlikely so we will work on the assumption that Michigan still wins out and examine M's chances to secure an at-large bid.
Look at it this way. The BCS has 10 available spots - two each for the national title game, Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, and Sugar Bowl.
Only two teams from any conference may go to the BCS.
There are 6 AQ conferences, independents and random crashers to consider here-lets take them one at a time.
SEC - LSU and Alabama are pretty much locks for 2 of the spots leaving 8 spots
Big 12 - You can almost guarantee Oklahoma and Ok. State are going to a BCS bowl leaving 6 spots
Big East - There is almost no way in hell the Big East sends more than its conference champion so that leaves 5 spots
ACC - It is unlikely the ACC will send more than the conference champion that will probably come down to either Clemson or VaTech leaving 4 spots
Independents - No independents *cough* Notre Dame *cough* are making the BCS this year leaving 4 spots
BCS crashers - With Boise States loss that leaves Houston as the only possible qualifier and they need to move up to 8 from 11 (I think someone correct me if I'm wrong) in the BCS standing. Considering the fact that many ahead of Houston will lose or have lost just today it is a distinct possibility, however their strength of schedule in the computer component of the BCS may keep them out of it. This is the biggest wild card of the entire BCS conundrum. I'll go ahead and say they make it so that leaves 3 spots
B1G - The conference championship will probably be MSU against Wisconsin. Unless God really is an MSU fan (he isn't) they won't pull off another miracle and Wisconsin gets the B1G autobid leaving 2 spots.
Pac 12 - This can likely go two ways
Scenario #1: If Oregon wins tonight the Pac-12 probably sends both Oregon and Stanford to the BCS leaving only one spot for the B1G and assuring that Michigan is not in the equation for an at-large bid
Scenario #2: If Stanford wins tonight the Pac-12 may send only the conference champion (Stanford) to a BCS bowl leaving one available BCS spot for an at-large bid.
Again we are working on the assumption that Michigan wins out against Nebraska and OSU and is fighting for an at-large bid so if Scenarion #2 plays out an at-large bid to the BCS probably comes down to a choice between Oregon or Michigan. Which team's fanbase is going to travel better is a question that the bowl selection committees will take into account and if that is the case Michigan's chances of being selected are pretty good.
That's a lot of things that have to swing Michigan's way for them to make a BCS bowl so I would have to say the overall chances of making a BCS bowl are pretty grim.
Aside from rooting for M to win out (which if you aren't doing anyway makes you a monster) people should be rooting for Stanford tonight to diminish Oregon's chances of taking an at-large bid. People should also be rooting for Ok. State to beat Oklahoma - guaranteeing Ok. State a spot and decreasing Oklahoma's chances at an at-large bid; if Oklahoma wins it pretty much guarantees both take a BCS spot. Finally we should also be rooting for Houston to boot one of their remaining games which would likely open up one more at-large bid and give Michigan a much more realistic shot at the BCS. Stranger things have happened, but if I was a betting man I'd say Michigan isn't going to a BCS bowl this year.
This is basically what I was trying to say in my OP. I 100% agree with this.
Just about Houston though. It's top 12, not top 8. But when researching, I also found this on the BCS site.
3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:
A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.
Part B is the important part. This means that unless the Big East team moves ahead of Houston, which they won't, Houston just needs to finish inside the top 16.
Also, I just realized this, but Houston will have to play #22 USM in the C-USA championship game. That is another team they have to get by. This makes it much harder for Houston to get in, but if USM wins out and then beats Houston, they could potentially get a bid. And since the Big East is so awful, they'd only have to move into the top 16, which is very realistic. So the Big East being so awful could come back to royally screw Michigan if USM wins out.
Nice job laying out the possibilities. However, I just watched Oregon crush Stanford am not so sure that Stanford team would get a BCS berth over a hypothetical 10-2 Michigan team.
Granted, an 11-1 Stanford team would have a better record, be ranked higher, and have the Heisman Trophy favorite on the roster. But Stanford doesn't have any real quality wins (I am not particularly impressed by USC these days), and they don't even fill their own home stadium let alone flock to bowl games.
If ever there was going to be a season where the Big 10 sent only one team to a BCS game, this is the year. This won't be our year for a BCS bowl bid. We'll play on New Years Day and we'll probably get a match-up that gives us a realistic chance at winning the bowl game. That would be pretty good for Hoke's first season.
Next year, we can aim higher.
Right now, beat Nebraska, beat Ohio....PLEASE beat Ohio.
The upcoming Rose Bowl isn't on New Year's Day, and neither are any of the bowls I think you're referring to.
I confess, I haven't checked the bowl schedule to see what games are played when. I was looking at a Capital One bid or something along those lines as a likely slot for Michigan this season.
He spends more time doing this than most of us do.
In this Nov 7 update, Palm projects
Title game: LSU vs Stanford
Rose: Wisconsin vs Oregon
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs ?
Sugar: Alabama vs ?
Orange: Clemson vs ?
Boise State and Cincinnati still have to go somewhere, so only one at-large spot is open.
What then does Palm think the Fiesta would do with the next choice?
The Fiesta gets the first choice of selections for its game in this year's rotation, followed by the Sugar and Orange. The Fiesta can chose from Boise State, Cincinnati, Houston, Michigan, Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech.
Michigan blows all of those other teams out of the water in terms of fan base and marquee value. Not even close. Also, Michigan's fan base would not be jaded by a recent run of success, as sometimes happens with other schools.
and then finishes with
Them's the breaks. Note that if either of the other bowls had first choice instead of the Fiesta, Oklahoma State would almost certainly be that choice. Also, if the Fiesta did decide to choose Boise, OSU would almost certainly end up in the Sugar.
Again, Michigan "blows all of those other teams out of the water in terms of fan base and marquee value".
Scrap this, I missed Houston in my original count. We have to win out obviously, and have Houston, Alabama, Oklahoma (assuming they lose to Ok State), or Oregon (assuming they lose to Stanford) have to play themselves out of an At Large bid.
I really liked our chances before the 2nd loss, but you know there's always possibility. So let's beat Nebraska and OSU please!
The games should be played on December 31st! What are they doing playing them on Monday?
We went from not winning another game to the BCS.
the use of "HOWEVA"? Can't seem to read a post on here anymore without someone thinking it's clever.
so I'd say we'd have a decent shot if there is only one other 2 loss team in the conference at the end.
Our chances are pretty slim. Of the 4 at large bids one of them will probably be going to UH or SoMiss. Another will surely be going to an SEC team. That leaves 2 spots with us, Stanford, OU/OkSt, and Clemson/VT. A lot would have to happen for us to get in, not the least of which is us winning out. A 10-2 season and a Capital One Bowl against Arkansas or Georgia would be nice.
Let's get our heads out da clouds.