So I know this is really premature, and Michigan would have to win out to even be considered. The most important thing is winning the rest of the games, beating OSU and Nebraska.
HOWEVA, lets assume we win out. How realisitc are our BCS chances? Odds are MSU wins the Leaders division, and at this point Wisky controls their own destiny, and I expect them to win out and have a rematch vs MSU in the championship game. I would bet on Wisky winning then as well. MSU would then have a 3rd loss, and I think if we win out we would jump them in the standings.
There are 4 at-large bids. 1 will go to an SEC team. None will go to a Big East team. That leaves, B1G, ACC, BIG 12, PAC-12, and non AQ.
Houston will probably get a bid, they're ranked 11th and have 6-4 SMU and 7-3 Tulsa left, both of whom they should beat.
From the PAC-12 the only teams are Oregon and Stanford. If Oregon wins, both teams will have 1 loss, and Oregon would control their own destiny. At this point, Stanford probably gets an AL bid, and there are 2 PAC-12 teams. If Stanford wins, they clinch the North and get a bid. Oregon would have 2 loses at this point and be out of the championship game. They still would have to play USC as well. If they get passed USC, they should get an AL berth. (Obviously, this is also contingent on whichever team makes the championship game winning as well.)
From the ACC, Clemson is already in their championship game, and Va Tech is the favorite to make it as well. This can be kind of tricky to predict. If Virginia makes the championship game, Michigan should hope Clemson wins so Virginia doesn't steal a spot and potentially let Clemson or Va Tech get an at large. If Va Tech wins out and the two play each other, does the loser get an at large berth? I personally think if Clemson loses, they'd have a better shot at an AL than if Va Tech lost. Best case scenario for Mich though is Clemson losing to South Carolina to end the season and then losing to Va Tech in the championship.
From the BIG 12, the only two teams with a chance are OSU and OU and it comes down to Bedlam. If OU wins, both teams probably get in. If OSU wins, they're probably in the NC game, and OU probably still gets an AL berth.
From the B1G, I briefly went over this earlier, but the championship will probably be MSU vs the winner of Wisky vs PSU. Once again, I think Wisky will win that, giving PSU their third loss. I think that would knock them out of an AL berth. Then from the leaders, Nebraska would be out with their 3rd loss (assuming we beat them), leaving us with two losses. Then I would think Wisky would beat MSU in the championship game, but even if MSU wins, I would think the loser with 3 loses would be out of consideration.
Yes, I know this is long, complicated, convaluted, and doesn't matter if we don't win out. But assuming we do. What do you think Michigan's chances are for an AL berth? After going through all of this, I still don't think we have amazing chances, but better than I originally did. Of the three non-SEC spots, I think at this point Houston, a PAC-12, and a BIG-12 teams are the front runners. But if one of those three were to stumble, I think we'd be next in line. Agree? Disagree?