How much longer will Michigan be able to recruit well without winning?
Recruiting hasn't taken a noticeable hit yet, IMO. So I'm wondering, how much longer will recruits bother visiting Michigan before they just toss their Michigan offer into the "thanks but no thanks" pile?
We're starting to get to the point where, in the mind of high schoolers, Michigan is a program of the past. Our last national success was 2006, and I guess the Capital One Bowl against Florida. For next year's high school seniors, that will have been during their freshmen year. If Michigan hasn't been good during your whole high school career, do they still pop up on your radar?
I'm sure tradition and academics will always have some sway, but how much and for how long?
January 9th, 2010 at 3:14 PM ^
It is Michigan and always will be we are like ND no matter how bad it gets there are always good recruits that want to come to Michigan.
January 9th, 2010 at 3:24 PM ^
While I agree with your point it makes it hard to read when posters don't use punctuation to build in pauses in what they are saying but continue making points until all their points are made and they have nothing left to say and they are done and then stop typing.
Sorry...it's just one of my things.
January 9th, 2010 at 4:13 PM ^
are enough to attract great talent.
January 9th, 2010 at 8:05 PM ^
Punctuation please.
January 9th, 2010 at 3:15 PM ^
enough said
January 9th, 2010 at 4:20 PM ^
Dumb question
No it wasn't.
January 9th, 2010 at 7:36 PM ^
I mean it suggests we will continue to be bad, that the author presumes a poor season is upcoming. To me at best it should be stated as an off topic question; I can understand how some of us might be annoyed by it.
January 9th, 2010 at 11:00 PM ^
To me at best it should be stated as an off topic question
A question about the Michigan football team's ability to recruit football players should be stated as an off-topic question?
January 9th, 2010 at 3:16 PM ^
because you assume we will continue to struggle. I think we're primed to win 8-9 games this year and look what happens to recruiting when big name teams get hot. Alabama last year had a few last minute 5 star commits because they were the hot team. I think our recruiting goes nowhere but up from here.
January 9th, 2010 at 3:21 PM ^
I wonder if Alabama fans thought the same thing when their program was struggling? They lost scholarships, were losing to Auburn, hiring coaches that liked the strip clubs, etc. Seemed to turn around for them, so I am of the opinion that if we keep recruiting well, develop those players, and have some coaching stability we will be just fine.
January 9th, 2010 at 4:18 PM ^
I am of the opinion that if we keep recruiting well, develop those players, and have some coaching stability we will be just fine.
Great. Unfortuntely, you didn't answer the OP's question, which was, can we continue to recruit well if we don't start winning again.
January 9th, 2010 at 3:20 PM ^
but maybe not as big nationally as it once was. Just look at the top recruiting classes, these teams play in big bowls and contend for conference and national titles. Michigan needs to get back into that spot light to contend with the Florida's and USC's of college football.
January 9th, 2010 at 3:24 PM ^
Not gonna Neg you because you have been a great poster in the past, but I think you are "fear" baiting here.
Michigan is a still a big name program. Despite what we think because we are spoiled, we HAVE been successful recently. We missed our first bowl game in over 30 years only recently for god's sake!
Look at: Alabama, USC, Florida, etc. All schools had rough patches recently and now they are considered elite.
We'll be alright in recruiting, I can assure you of that.
January 9th, 2010 at 4:22 PM ^
Given that the question was "will we continue to recruit well if we keep on losing," it's not actually moot (or stupid, for that matter) until the team starts winning again. I think we turn it around this year, but the OP's question is completely legitimate.
January 9th, 2010 at 4:49 PM ^
I appreciate you holding off on the neg based on your opinion of me. I like you too.
I don't think our recruiting will ever be terrible, but it's my opinion that we are indeed starting to slip from the top echelon.
Since 2002, here's the number of 5*/4* recruits we've signed. Total class size is in parenthesis.
2002: 1/10 (21) 2003: 2/11 (17) 2004: 1/12 (22) 2005: 1/10 (23) 2006: 2/9 (19) 2007: 2/5 (20) 2008: 0/17 (24) 2009: 1/13 (22) 2010: 0/5 (24) ***(Commitments to date)So we have 24 commits to date - the same amount as we signed in 2008. Though, you'll see that compared to 2008, the amount of star power is significantly lower in this class. I understand that recruiting lower ranked kids might be part of RichRod's strategy, so maybe it's by design. I also understand that this class isn't done yet - I could easily see us adding Parker and Wilson, thus boosting our ranking. Finally, I also understand that Rivals ranking aren't the end all be all. But in my opinion, the above data does make me stop and think for a moment. I'll off a bright side to those who think I am purposefully being negative (not you, RO) - the 2008 class was a pretty strong one even after you subtract out the four 4*s who are no longer on the team. Therefore, RichRod will have a pretty solid junior class to work with
January 9th, 2010 at 5:49 PM ^
Recruiting has already been impacted this year IMO, and also in the opinion of Brian and others. So the answer is that if we don't step up this year that we will be not have a good recruiting year next year--defining "good" as the usual Michigan standard.
January 10th, 2010 at 12:10 PM ^
I can't believe the number of Kool Aid drinkers on here. Their whole answer is "We're Michigan, we'll be OK". That's just not good enough.
Your question is a good, legit topic. We've already seen the recruiting gap between UM and OSU grow in the Buckeyes favor. PSU has been able to make gains in the past few years, too. Hell, even Sparty is creeping up on Michigan in terms of recruiting. Your chart shows in noticeable drop in 4 and 5 star talent.
Michigan is still a relevant topic on ESPN but mostly for bad things (lawsuits, practice time...) and rarely for accomplishments on the field. Don't get me wrong, I don't think that all is lost.....but this year is critical. You can't live in the past forever.
History has shown that all major programs have downturns (PSU, USC, Alabama, Nebraska....) and they make a resurgence at some point. Like an economic recession, there must be a gameplan to rebuild. Just saying "We're Michigan" does not constitute a viable gameplan.
January 9th, 2010 at 3:24 PM ^
We're going to win this year, so this is a moot point.
January 9th, 2010 at 3:30 PM ^
it would take Michigan Football no less than 21 years of straight losing seasons before they stop recruiting good players. its tenure. its tradition. its Michigan Football....
January 9th, 2010 at 3:33 PM ^
Do you mean winning seasons or winning enough to be nationally relevant, i.e. always in BCS and/or top 10 at the end of the year?
January 9th, 2010 at 6:01 PM ^
In precisely 62,398,457,493,204 minutes from this post.
January 9th, 2010 at 3:42 PM ^
your question is like how long can i keep eating big macs without getting a heart attack? one is a direct result of another.
January 9th, 2010 at 3:50 PM ^
We were one game away from playing for the NC in 2006 (2007 BCS NC Game) and we beat the defending NC Florida team in the 2008 Capital One Bowl (which team turned around and won the NC again in 2009, the following year). Yes, we have had two horrific seasons, but it takes more than that to wipe away 100+ years of elite level history and tradition. We will be back nationally as soon as we make our next BCS game and then, for everyone except Michigan fans, the past two years will be forgotten.
January 9th, 2010 at 6:34 PM ^
When that time comes, I, a Michigan fan, plan to lobotomize myself to also forget the 2008 and 2009 seasons.
January 9th, 2010 at 3:52 PM ^
I guess I'm going to go against the crowd here:
This class is significantly worse rated than those that preceded it. More losing will show more sliding.
January 9th, 2010 at 4:17 PM ^
It's not so much the losing that hurts recruiting as the uncertainty that surrounds the coaching staff, and the perception that Rich Rod and co. are doing a poor job. And the best way to fight back against that is, duhr, to win.
I think most would agree that Michigan is still a very attractive place to play. With the stadium and facilities renovations completed this year, I think it's safe to say Michigan remains an elite national program (top 10-15), in spite of recent on-field struggles. Michigan is a great school that invests a lot into fielding a winning team. Recruits recognize that.
But I agree (how can you not?), this class is not as highly rated as a typical Michigan recruiting class, and we can take that for whatever it's worth. However it is safely in the top 20 so I don't think anyone can complain too much.
It is kind of funny, though, to think that, say, 18 months ago, most Michigan fans would have identified Devin Gardner, Marvin Robinson, Jeremy Jackson and Ricardo Miller as the most important 2010 recruits. When it turned out some of those guys weren't as highly rated as we had anticipated they would be, I think people were disappointed. But I think it's a credit to Rodriguez and his staff that they were able to secure those commitments with zero drama.
On another note, there is no Rivals 5 star prospect (yet) from the 2010 class that is Big Ten bound.
January 9th, 2010 at 5:54 PM ^
It's simply a fact that, if you follow recruiting rankings, this class is worse than those that preceded it. Brian has written as much also. Funny that that wold be a controversial statement.
January 9th, 2010 at 3:58 PM ^
i think that we have to make a bowl this season.
the first thing we need to do is win the games we should win. no more embarrasing losses. uconn, mass, bg, indiana, msu, illinois, purdue, and (maybe) notre dame. we need to win the games we should win.
the second thing we need to do is win at least one of the games we shouldn't - against osu, iowa, wisc, or psu.
9-3, or 8-4 next season = things are right where we want them to be.
January 9th, 2010 at 4:04 PM ^
I have to agree with chitownblue2. I've already noticed a dip in the quality of recruits that Michigan's has gotten this year. There are only a few guys for the 2010 class that I'm excited about. Winning brings winning, and losing brings losing. Losing is a viscious cycle and I hope Michigan doesn't get into that trap. If Michigan has another bad year in 2010, expect a Nebraska like future.
January 9th, 2010 at 4:29 PM ^
What identity does Michigan have right now? It used to be that we recruited the smart pro-style player who wanted good academics. I could go on forever but Brady, Long, Hutchinson, Dhani, Henson, and Long all come to mind. Now our identity is what? A below average spread team that does not play defense. I agree, we need to win now or go with the formula that made us successful historically.
January 9th, 2010 at 4:49 PM ^
Bo would say:
"THIS IS MICHIGAN, GODDAMIT! THERE IS NO LOSING AT MICHIGAN!"
...or something like that.
My point here is that so many of us are so traumatized by the last two seasons that we are in danger of percieving them as "normal" instead of as the aberrations they were. The patterns of both RR and UM dictate at least eight wins next season and probably nine.
Also, since I have posted the same opinion numerous times in the last two months, I agree with the post that said all they really have to do is improve enough to beat teams on the level of Illinois, MSU, and Purdue. I fully believe that Michigan is more than capable of that small increment of improvement. That improvement alone gets eight wins.
The only two scenarios where this doesn't happen are if nobody improves on defense or they don't get enough health, depth, or quality out of the QB position. Does anyone really think this will happen three years in a row? I don't.
Therefore, all speculation about RR's future, other than how many MNC's he is going to bring to Ann Arbor, is indeed moot.
January 9th, 2010 at 4:54 PM ^
If it's half as long as notre dame we should be fine.
January 9th, 2010 at 5:56 PM ^
That Michigan just spent 40 years bringing in Top 5 talent every year.
That is simply not true. I am going to guess that if you went back and averaged the final rankings for Michigan's recruiting classes over the last 20 years (pretty much since the days when the NCAA started paring down the scholarship numbers)--you'd find Michigan with a ranking of somewhere between 10-20.
Michigan's classes have always seemed to be top heavy with a bit of a falloff as the numbers grew.
According to Scout team rankings that go back to 2002:
Year/rank
2002: 19
2003: 8
2004: 5
2005: 2
2006: 9
2007: 10
2008: 6
2009: 14
2010 (so far): 12
According to Rivals over the same time period:
2002: 16
2003: 17
2004: 5
2005: 6
2007: 12
2008: 10
2009: 8
2010 (so far): 18
I think we've been a bit over the top when describing the talent UM brings in annually. Also--it would be damn hard to go back 20 years--those records would be hard to find unless you got more patience than me.
Now I don't believe UM (or anybody) needs Top 5 and maybe even Top 10 talent EVERY year to be a perrenial power. You DO need talent, but you need player development and you need, also, to be able to identify talent that doesn't have a shitload of stars next to its name.
I have my (well documented) beefs with Rodriguez and his most ardent supporters, but he has shown the ability to get talent here, and he has shown the ability to close late in the process.
The THING will be: Exactly how good a coach is he? WILL his system translate to a consistently higher level of football like the Big Ten?
Some other questions I ponder: Will his "eye for talent" be better here because he can go after higher-quality players across the board here than he could at WVU? In other words--a flyer at WVU--a flyer at UM--is there a difference in the talent level already? Think Vinopal.
I believe he gets in with better recruits than he could at WVU, so I believe the chances he takes will be with better athletes as well.
And lastly: Michigan has everything in the world going for it other than the program is a bit down right now and weather than can be aptly described as "Total shit"
HOWEVER: Great recruiters (expecially at a school like UM) can recruit. Period.
Michigan may not be in the fronts of the minds of 18 year olds, but their coaches and parents are old enough to know the story.
January 10th, 2010 at 2:55 PM ^
Scout has us between 8-9, and Rivals around 12, depending on how you want to average it by...inlcuding Rich's class or not. That's a lot closer to top ten annually than 10-20. So I don't think it's beyond the ken to say that Michigan's standard is Top Ten, and no one would argue that we've ever been USC or such that has had a long string of Top 5 classes. Top 5 for a great class, 5-10 for a normal class, and if it was more than 10th, people would start bitching about the poor recruiting. And while you don't need to go back, I'm sure that trend continued.
The class with Drew Henson and all was considered tops, or top 2 or 3, but then kinda lost a lot of the players that made it great along the way. So it's not a sure sign, by any means, but we were pretty consistent in recruiting, and were considered to have one of the best and hardest working recruiting staffs in the country, with FSU, back in the day.
January 9th, 2010 at 6:37 PM ^
2047 is the correct answer to the hypothetical question, "How much longer will Michigan be able to recruit well without winning?"
As a hypothetical, we in the law have a better answer, however. The answer is, or will be:
"The question is moot."
January 9th, 2010 at 8:33 PM ^
We need to stop expecting losses against anyone in the top 40.Look at Wisconsin, for instance.This coach,team,school are absolute SHIT. They recruit 5 320 pounders and a couple big backs,a 3 star QB if they are lucky,and everyone else is a 2 or 3 star guy.If we want to go back to being an elite program then these are the kinds of schools we need to start kicking the shit out of from here forward.We have a better coaching staff,better recruits, better S&c,facilities,athletes speed,etc,etc,etc. Now we not be ready to consistently beat OSU or penn state but lets at least get to the level where we can expect to beat wisconsin,illinois,iowa,nw,and purdue. Those are 5 schools we need to start winning against (and eventually destroying) if we are to get to 10 wins every year, which then leads to better recruiting. Too many non-believers out there in regards to RR's system.
January 10th, 2010 at 1:57 PM ^
i.e. the University of Wisconsin is not shit. It's one of the better public universities in fact.
January 9th, 2010 at 11:07 PM ^
Spread offense type players want to play for spread offense coaches. Our troubles are not a coaching or recruiting one. Players recognize that Michigan's short comings are on the football field on Saturdays. And players recognize they can come to Michigan and fill the holes we have on our roster.