How much does the loss of Countess change your expectations?
|
Sat., Sep. 1 |
vs. No. 2 Alabama |
Arlington, Texas |
L, 41-14 |
| Sat., Sep. 8 |
vs. Air Force  |
Michigan Stadium | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Sep. 15 |
vs. Massachusetts |
Michigan Stadium | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Sep. 22 |
at Notre Dame |
South Bend, Ind. | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Oct. 6 |
at Purdue * |
West Lafayette, Ind. | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Oct. 13 |
vs. Illinois - Homecoming * |
Michigan Stadium | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Oct. 20 |
vs. Michigan State * |
Michigan Stadium | TBA |
| Sat., Oct. 27 |
at Nebraska * |
Lincoln, Neb. | 7:00 p.m. CT |
| Sat., Nov. 3 |
at Minnesota * |
Minneapolis, Minn. | TBA |
| Sat., Nov. 10 |
vs. Northwestern * |
Michigan Stadium | TBA |
| Sat., Nov. 17 |
vs. Iowa * |
Michigan Stadium | TBA |
| Sat., Nov. 24 |
at Ohio State * |
Columbus, Ohio | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| Sat., Dec. 1 |
Big Ten Championship Game |
Indianapolis, Ind. | TBA |
The schedule is above. I originally thought Michigan would go 9-3 or 8-4 and that Countess would be a key piece of the defensive puzzle. The way things look now, I think that wins at ND, Nebraska, and OSU are pretty unlikely, though I thought Michigan would do well to go 1-2 in those games even before Countess went down. Also, Purdue, Illinois, and NW now seem like reasonably difficult tests. Hopefully, Richardson, Taylor, or Avery will blossom in Countess's absence. Sometimes guys grow up when they're thrown into unexpected playing time, but going on the way things appear right now, I think we might be looking at a 7-5 regular season. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong.
September 4th, 2012 at 11:47 AM ^
The expectations are for the position. This is Michigan fergodsakes!
September 4th, 2012 at 11:49 AM ^
I just refreshed the screen hoping that that 41-14 score would change, or disappear, or something...
Damn.
September 4th, 2012 at 8:00 PM ^
For THE KNOWLEDGE has already addressed our fears, and he has announced that we will only lose one more game. Crisis averted. Nothing more to see here. We have nothing to fear but fear itself . . .
September 4th, 2012 at 11:50 AM ^
Not much. Avery has played a ton of football, and done so fairly well. He had one bad snap against Alabama, and otherwise didn't seem to fair badly. I didn't notice Raymon Taylor, who took Avery's spot in the slot, get picked on at all, and he was very involved in the run game (unfortunately). I think it's a hit, but not that painful.
I thought 9-3 at the start of the year, and still think it.
September 4th, 2012 at 11:55 AM ^
Yeah, I think 9-3 is still reachable.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:07 PM ^
The blow-out doesn't have me nearly as concerned as the loss of Countess, who (rightly or not) I thought would have a really good year.
September 4th, 2012 at 2:55 PM ^
Even before this game I thought 9-3 would be about right. They do have depth back there and I think they'll turn into a good unit once again. We just have to hope they don't lose any more starters. And I'm not convinced that ND or Neb are losses by any stretch.
September 4th, 2012 at 4:29 PM ^
Holy crap people, come down off the ledges. There's not a team on our schedule that is unbeatable. Yes we have some very tough road games, so maybe we split those. A bad loss on the road to the defending champs and suddenly Purdue and NW are frightening foes? Give me a break.
September 4th, 2012 at 11:51 AM ^
i still think michigan goes 9-3 or 8-4. its not like Avery is some bum that dosnt know what he is doing.
September 4th, 2012 at 11:51 AM ^
Not that much actually. The only passing attacks I'm worried about on our schedule are ND's and Ohio State's. The rest I think our corners will be fine in pass coverage and run support.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:19 PM ^
September 4th, 2012 at 1:53 PM ^
Purdue started their second string QB who went 30/38 295 7.8YPA 2TD 1INT. EKU went 7-4 against FCS competition last year.
Coulter went 14/21 135 6.4YPA 2TD 0INT. That's respectable, and he did well against us last season, but Syracuse finished 91st in passing defense last year and lost five starters from that unit.
Martinez might be the scariest of the bunch, but Southern Mississippi doesn't have much of a defense either. They finished 89 in passing defense and lost six starters. Even so, Martinez went 26/34 354 10.4YPA 5TD 0INT. While his performance was definitely great, let's wait until we see how he plays against Wisconsin and Ohio before freaking out. My guess is he returns more to his usual form when faced with some Big Ten defenses.
September 4th, 2012 at 3:05 PM ^
I'm with you. I didn't really get people's concerns and wasn't really worried about Nebraska at all because martinez is awful and because of what they lost on defense, but after seeing him throw not like a drunk giraffe this weekend my concern has been elevated to a 7. Purdue, on the other hand does not worry me at all. I find that when literally everyone is predicting a team to be a sleeper they usually just suck. ND has ZERO secondary. Thus my worry level remains low. MSU is somewhat concerning but considering we put up 14 on them last year, and just put up 14 on a much better defense, I'm gonna say our offense has improved significantly, even though that is an extraordinarily weak correlation. Their pass attack blows and they don't have 4 all americans on the OL so I'm not worried. Ohio is worrisome.
Edit: I also always worry about Northwestern in the back of my mind, ever since that bastard Zak Kustok. I remember hating their gimmicky offense that we couldn't stop, and that everyone and their mom is now running.
September 4th, 2012 at 3:11 PM ^
September 5th, 2012 at 3:40 PM ^
Exactly. This was my point.
Did everyone see MSU try to pass? Maxwell looked terrible. As did Iowa. The teams that will give us the toughest times and where people are generall predicting possible losses--ND, MSU, Iowa, Nebraska, OSU--don't have prolific passing attacks except maybe ND and OSU.
September 5th, 2012 at 3:41 PM ^
"but after seeing him throw not like a drunk giraffe this weekend my concern has been elevated to a 7."
That's hilarious!
September 4th, 2012 at 11:56 AM ^
Some what. I think we will beat average teams, but having Countess against MSU, ND and OSU would help tremendously. He's a great talent, his backup is also a good talent, but now we're thin at this position and can't afford another injury.
September 4th, 2012 at 11:57 AM ^
While the loss was titanic in its embarassment, it was the offense that left me wanting more than the defense (although the arm tackling -- and I am looking at you, too, Kovacs -- was circa 2009-2010).
If your team is going to get a cold shower during the season, I rather it be a non-conference game the first week against a team of Alabama's caliber.
Countess is a massive loss, to be sure, but we have more depth than we have had in years. Also, anyone watching the other B1Gs this weekend isn't exactly quaking in fear.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:01 PM ^
I seriously don't think this is much of an indicator on how our offense will perform in the B1G at all.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:07 PM ^
With Fitz back, and a couple of games to allow the OL to work together and "gel", I think we have some awesome offensive weapons: Denard, Fitz, Smith, Gallon, Hopkins, Gardner, and to-be-determined breakout WR. There is also the possibility Norfleet works himself into a role other than returning kicks. I am still jacked for the season.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:15 PM ^
I rewatched the game in slow motion, paying close attention to the lines, and there were chances for gains on the ground that were missed because Smith couldn't run through tackles (not a knock on the guy) or because Rawls didn't seem to see them. I believe the running game wouldn't have looked quite so anemic if Fitz had played.
I am also still excited for the rest of the season, FWIW. Michigan looks to be in the early stages of a process that will turn them into a top-5 team every year. I'm very happy with the overall way things are going. I didn't mean my post to bee too down in the mouth.
September 4th, 2012 at 1:00 PM ^
more probable. However, I am hoping that the Navy Seal training, Denard magic, and great coaching of some hot young talent will still yield a great outcome for this group. Also, it is far more fun for me to watch the game expecting improbable, favorable outcomes for Michigan. Our comeback against Wisconsin -- in the depths of our collective despair as a fanbase -- was incredibly entertaining. Each week during the RR era, we went to the Big House or this website hoping for a similar result in spite of the overwhelming evidence that was a pretty dumb outlook. That's why I love college ball.
I felt MUCH worse after FSU beat our asses in the Big House than I do now. Or, the Colorado game.Or, The Horror. Our "brand" didn't take much of a hit, because around the country Michigan football is still like listening to your grandpa tell you about the war. We weren't expected to win, and many thought we would be torched. We were torched, but an epic LSU team watched longingly at our ability to sometimes cross Alabama's 50 and put it in their endzone.
I think it really comes down to how you like to follow the season as a fan. My prediction for last Saturday's game was 28 - 24 Michigan -- I knew while I was typing it that it was silly prediction. But, I just don't take much pleasure in being correct if it means I have to choose against a team I have passionately followed since I was a little kid. Sometimes it is much more fun to be a partisan than a realist. Especially with college sports.
I want Ufer back. I want Hoke hugging his seniors and families in their final appearance in the Big House. I want players who wore the Maize & Blue to be honored guests when they return to Ann Arbor whether they were back-bench walkons or All Americans. I want crazy-passionate support of our team from Michigan obsessed people who frequent this Board and mke gifs, animations, wall-papers, and PhD theses of football analytics. Cold, accurate analysis is why the NFL exists (and why I rarely watch the NFL). Give me Michigan football any day, any year, any era -- against any opponent, and with any outcome -- and I will still watch with hope.
September 4th, 2012 at 1:59 PM ^
September 4th, 2012 at 2:56 PM ^
I'll play.
Michigan is NOT more talented than OSU, is probably a push with ND and MSU and is slightly more talented than Nebraska.
Three of those games are on the road and two of those are at night. Night road games are VERY difficult to win unless you are clearly superior to the home team.
Before the injury to Countess, I was already expecting UM to lose close games to ND and Nebraska (~7 pt loss) as well as a not-as-close game against OSU (10-13 pt loss). With the loss of Countess, I am quite sure that UM will finish no better than 8-4 (which was my preseason prediction) and I now think 7-5 (a loss to MSU) is definitely a possibility.
September 4th, 2012 at 9:06 PM ^
September 4th, 2012 at 11:58 AM ^
September 4th, 2012 at 12:01 PM ^
They literally completed 1 pass on Avery, and he slipped. If that makes him bad, than Milliner is a bad CB as well, for what happned on Gardner's TD.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:14 PM ^
Facts have no place on the internet. Silly chitown, don't ruin other people's narrative.
September 4th, 2012 at 1:06 PM ^
because Avery was a blanket or because they choose to run the ball?
September 4th, 2012 at 1:13 PM ^
McCarron was 11-21 passing (52.4%) . . . 11-22 if that borderline pass interference flag hadn't been thrown. Last season he completed 66.8% of his throws, FWIW.
September 4th, 2012 at 3:02 PM ^
Way to small of a sample size to make any conclusions.
September 4th, 2012 at 3:04 PM ^
I think the conclusion is just that McCarron had less success than he's accustomed to.
September 4th, 2012 at 1:40 PM ^
I believe they also completed a short pass on which Avery came up and tackled. Not that it changes your overall point or anything. I'm just sayin'...
September 4th, 2012 at 12:13 PM ^
So you're saying that Countess may have represented the difference between us winning and losing? Are you kidding? Most of Bama's strength came via its run game and its defense; its pass game was solid but hardly spectactular. With Countess in, we still lose by 20.
Let go. Just let go.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:45 PM ^
It's funny how as soon as we lose a starter to injury, his reputation suddenly soars. Troy Woolfolk never received more hype than after his season-ending injury in 2010. By the end of that season, people were mentioning him in the same breath as Woodson and Law.
Countess is a promising young player and it certainly hurts to lose him, but his loss alone was not the difference in a 27-point loss.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:00 PM ^
My fiancee is a NW alum so I watched their game against Syracuse. Countess or not, that game should not be difficult.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:00 PM ^
My expectation was 7-9 wins so that remains the same, if the DL gets manhandled by Notre Dame the way they were manhandled by Alabama, then I will start to worry.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:00 PM ^
Obviously it's really disappointing for both Countess and the team, but I do not believe there is a game on the schedule that changes from a projected win to a loss due to his injury. Plus I have confidence in our coaches to make sure the next man up is put in a position to succeed.
I will say however, that I was leaning towards 10-2 or 9-3, which may now change to 9-3 or 8-4, simply because overall as a team I'm more skeptical based on this performance.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:00 PM ^
Over the course of the season, there aren't going to be many games where one defender means the difference between a win and a loss. Alabama, for instance, was going to be a loss even if you put Charles Woodson back there. It would be surprising if there were more than one game that: A) Michigan loses; and B) It's so close that you could honestly say that Countess would have made it a win.
Bear in mind that we don't really know how good Countess would have been. It's safe to assume that since he was a starter, he's better than the guy replacing him. But how much better? Naturally, every time Courtney Avery gets beat, we'll assume Countess would have made the play. But Countess got torched against Ohio State last year, and we have no evidence (yet) of him shutting down elite talent.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:17 PM ^
Thank you! Michigan fans act like Countess is the second coming of Woodson. He has potential, but hasn't even made his first interception yet. What was so great about him last year? He wouldn't have started at most big time schools as a freshman. Remember Michigans secondary in 2010? Thats why he was the starter.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:01 PM ^
The thing that sucks even more is we didn't even get to see how much better Countess got since last season, it really deflated me. There's no doubt he would of been our clear No.1 CB, and maybe even looking at first team all big ten.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:03 PM ^
"There's no doubt he would of been our clear No.1 CB, and maybe even looking at first team all big ten. "
Ah.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:16 PM ^
I think Countess has the potential to be very good but I think people may be overrating him a little. He struggled last year against Ohio and VT. Personally, I think he, Floyd and Avery are probably pretty interchangeable at this point.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:02 PM ^
9-10 wins are still very achievable.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:11 PM ^
None. It hurts depth, but it's not like Michigan is losing a playmaker. I don't think he even has a interception yet.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:47 PM ^
I don't completely disagree with your point, but interception totals are a poor measure of a CB's worth. The best ones don't get thrown at often.
September 4th, 2012 at 1:56 PM ^
It hurts us, no doubt, but if you asked me at the beginning of the season which player loss would turn this into a season of "OH NOES!!!!", he wouldn't have been in my top 5.
Avery has played decent against conference opponents, and I'm hopeful one of the youngsters can step up and make an impact the way Countess did last year as a true freshman.
September 4th, 2012 at 12:12 PM ^
Not really much to be honest. Avery has played good football, and how many Big Ten teams have great passing attacks? The Big Ten is low on quality receivers, so I'm more than confident we can still win
September 4th, 2012 at 12:13 PM ^
"No man is more important than The Team. No coach is more important than The Team. The Team, The Team, The Team, and if we think that way, all of us, everything that you do, you take into consideration what effect does it have on my Team? Because you can go into professional football, you can go anywhere you want to play after you leave here."
September 4th, 2012 at 12:16 PM ^
It sucks deeply. But maybe Richardson or Delonte will seize on the opportunity. They're young but not exactly pikers. This isn't like 2 or 3 years ago, when we essentially had nobody in reserve.