About how good msu will be, I care about how good we will be..when I say we I mean Michigan
Thanks now back to drinking this Mikes harder lemonade
About how good msu will be, I care about how good we will be..when I say we I mean Michigan
Thanks now back to drinking this Mikes harder lemonade
Pass me some of the Smirnoff Ice.
4 pack of Bartles&Jaymes for me tonight...I gotta work in the morning.
I think they will win between 5-10 games next year depending on the vagaries of football.
Maybe I'm from a different generation, but I just assume the Spartans will return to their usual Spartan self of being Little Brother. They've had a few good years, but the natural order of things will eventually take hold and they will go back to beating themselves and choking.
I don't think that's going to happen. Dantonio has brought a new culture to that program. The Sparty-No days are over as long as he's there.
They also play Oregon in Week 2 at Oregon.. Then the schedules re-align with the new teams entering and they have a very hard schedule next year.. I see them winning 8
I don't understand all this newfound belief in the permanence of MSU's program when just one year ago, they were coming off a 6-6 regular season (3-5 in league play).
Well, they've won 10 or more games in 3 of the past 4 years. Anyone care to look up how often Michigan has done that?
Also Carr had three 10 seasons to close out the 90's.
the extra games played now as compared to the 90's and before
It's actually 11 or more in 3 of the past 4 seasons. I don't think Michigan has ever done that - granted there is 1 more game nowadays plus a conference championship game if you qualify for. But there is a difference between 10 win season and 11 win. Hoke needs to win 11 games in the next 3 of 4 seasons to match this achievement - that is a tall task.
I agree in general about Dantonio's proven ability to plug in the next guy. But they're losing some pretty instrumental guys on that defense that won't be easily replaced. Bullough, Allen, and Lewis have been rocks in the middle of that defense for three years. And Dennard has been lock-down. They'll be some adjustment for MSU next year.
Dantonio has established a program that is going to produce 8-10 wins a year for a while; even if he retires in the next year or two the table is set with a solid coaching tree. However they cannot sustain a championship-level of success with how they have been recruiting and will likely continue to recruit in the foreseeable future. They capitalized on a good amount of talent during the Rodriguez years and the OSU coaching transition that it is paying dividends now, and they have done a good job of developing low-rated recruits but as the talent they have accumulated begins to cycle off the roster they will take a step back.
Don't get me wrong, their coaching is phenominal and they should expect to be in "the discussion" for years to come but I think they won't be going to another Rose Bowl for a long, long time.
Three of their current 22 starters were 4-star recruits on Rivals. One of those guys came because his dad was on the MSU staff (Treadwell) and another came because every single member of his family ever has played football at MSU (Bullough).
Their success is not the result of some brief golden age of recruiting success or the result of Michigan or Ohio State slipping up and not getting the guys they wanted. Their success is based on coaching and Mark Dantonio having as good an eye for unheralded talent as any coach in the country.
They didn't slip when Cousins, Worthy, Jones, Bell, etc. left, so expecting them to do so now seems more like wishful thinking than anything else.
No offense to evenyoubrutus, but I'm surprised it took this long to find a post crediting Sparty's rise to the brief falls of OSU and UMich. That, flawed as it may be, is conventional wisdom for many here. (They love to point to the '09 Sparty class in particular and blame it all on the 3-9 UMich season that preceded it by only a few weeks. As if the two were related ...)
As PurpleStuff noted, MSU's success didn't have that much to do with what happened here and in Columbus. They really weren't completing for the same players.
It isn't a black and white issue. Sparty is good because their coaches are unbelievably good at fundamental skill development and creating as close to a flawless system as you can with the players they have. I'm not saying they aren't gonna be good for the next few years, I'm saying they are not going to be winning championships like this. You can be a 9-10 win team without winning championships.
It's funny -- I agree with everything you just said. I was referring to this part of your other post:
"They capitalized on a good amount of talent during the Rodriguez years and the OSU coaching transition that it is paying dividends now ....."
Again, I don't think there are too many cases where you can say "This/that 4th-/5th-year guy is at MSU because OSU and UMich were floundering back then." They've been working with Midwestern run-off (at least, as measured by Rivals and Scout rankings).
Ah I see. I suppose my argument did change slightly throughout the debate as my original point was shot down in flames.
Yes, they did slip when Cousins left. Their success this year is owed to Cook's maturation as a QB. Without a competent offense MSU loses 4-5 games.
If you would have said player development I could understand, but to say Dantonio has an eye for talent that other coaches do not doesn't make much sense to me. They offer many of the guys on our team and simply dont get them. They offered RJS, Wormley, Ross, Funchess, Ojemudia, Braden, Godin, Strobel, Williams, and Norfleet. And, that's just the 2012 class. They take the best talent they can get, just like everyone else. They just develop them better than us so far, and have a consistent system in place.
Not sure you can say they have developed talent better than us to this point.. Unless you are referring to the RR years..
Dantonio is in his 7th year and they had 15 5th year seniors playing on their team, and 24 seniors in total. They have been able to built up a great amount of depth over the past 4 to 5 years where we haven't had the luxury of redshirting our best players.
After 3 years under dantonio they were 6-7.. And the MSU fanbase wanted Narduzzi fired because his defense was a joke and they claimed Dantonio sucked and couldn't develop talent..
Well guess what, years later they have depth and can usher in new talent without having to play a boatload of freshman like we did this year..
We started more freshman than we ever have in program history this year, and we still could of gone 10-2 ish if we had some better offensive playcalling or young line play.. If we aren't doing anything with all the upper classmen we will have in the next couple years then ill be extremely concerned. Or hoke will prob be fired regardless
You are correct on the star rating fact and I was wrong to post that without checking my facts in advance, however I still believe that no team, no matter how good the coaches are, can sustain CHAMPIONSHIP levels of success on a yearly basis with how msu is recruiting.
If it were really about development and talent was only in the eye of the beholder, then Rod Marinelli would have at least 4 super bowl rings right now.
I dont think anyone is saying they are going to be a championship team every year. I think some of us are saying they are at a Wisconsin level now where a "bad year" every 4th or 5th year is 7-6, and their good years are competing for Rose Bowls. So this is a far cry from the Sparty of the past 4 decades. And being in our division it is another major roadblock.
You nailed it Purplestuff. I love the meme of "MSU just had a great crop of talent that they developed in 2009 and 2010 and this cannot continue". Or meme #2 "Well they took advantage of UM's downfall and took our players!" What players? There is only a tiny overlap on the players we have been recruiting the past half decade. This is the same group of people who said "now that Cousins is gone - which Dantonio lucked out on - they will go back to being Sparty".
They had 2 freaking 4 stars on this defense. The rest are 2 and 3 stars. What great crop of talent did they luck on? Dantonio can identify talent and project it, and coach it. His position coaches obviously are good at doing that as well. Tressel said Dantonio was the best he saw who could do this. It is not going to change. That doesnt mean MSU wins 11 games every year for the next 7 years. But it means they will continue that talent identification and success. He has built a system ala Wisconsin and fits the talent to that system. If he starts to get the McDowell's of the world it is really going to be interesting as we saw in 2002 what he can do with 4 star talent all over his defense.
"they won't be going to another Rose Bowl for a long, long time", I'm hoping you mean another quarter-century drought for spartie?
I'm all in favor of that thought/wish!
In reality, though, I just don't have a good feeling that they will go away quietly and quickly. MD has built a solid program that will very likely benefit from their success of both this year and what they've been able to do over the last half-decade. Recruits that used to downplay or ignore being contacted by State will now pay a little more attention.
Someone above speculated that Dantonio would be around for about another 4 seasons---sounds about right to me, too. Even if Narduzzi does leave for UConn or elsewhere after the current season, isn't it highly possible he does it as a stepping stone towards returning with HC experience once MD retires?
Going back to the original title question in this thread, though, I'd say a drop-off to around 8 or 9 wins is the most likely 2014 scenerio.
At this point, I'll believe they take a step back when they have a 7-5 season. I was so sure this was the beginning of the end this year after the first few games and now they've climbed higher than ever. Their defense probably won't budge and their offense will probably be just competant enough to get them to 10+ wins again
Dantonio has as many 5 plus loss seasons as he does 11 plus win seasons.
Yes, you've made this point many times. Are you arguing that MSU won't be good next year?
for years to come. MSU's style of play has them involved in a lot of close games. Games that kill or enhance seasons. I just don't see the elite talent needed on offense to offset the adjustment period the defense will need. Youth as we have seen can create a lot of problems no matter how well coached a team is.
MSU won every B1G by double digits, including the championship game. You keep mentioning how MSU did not have a great season last year. True. What is missed is that in the bowl game, Connor Cook started and MSU won. Maxwell started three games this year, and MSU somewhat struggled in all three. Cook started his first game against ND, and it was a very close loss. The rest is history. Talk all you want about the losses on the defense and Narduzi, but Cook is the real deal--an NFL quarterback. MSU struggles were not because of their defense, it was their offense. Every team losses players. MSU returns the core of what could be an excellent offense and a good defense. Rest your hopes on a MSU's mediocre record last year if that helps.
Seasons as head coach in a BCS conference
I think we have a much better sample size for one than we do for the other.
but that ignores the fact that those times look to be largely behind him.
Maybe they see a blip again next year like they saw in 2012, but they have an extremely solid program built up over there. They won't go away till most of that staff leaves or the current staff gets old and starts to taper off
had three straight 10 plus win seasons in his third, fourth, and fifth seasons.The point is that in football trends can disappear as quickly as they appear. Will that be the case here? I have no idea. All I know is that MSU's style play is awfully similiar to what Carr did at Michigan except MSU has nowhere near the offensive skill Carr had.
FTR I agree with you.
I feel like their program has a much better foundation right now. We seem to be getting flashier recruits but it's yet to pay off.
Some of their substance has to do with Dantonio being there 7? years. He redshirts a lot of guys. They don't just get thrown in their their freshmen year because they have no other option.
They definitely have had our number as of late. I guess we will see next year how our guys develop. What scares me is their defensive system is so fundamentally sound....which I realize has to do with guys like Bullough etc that will be exiting.
In summary, I would say we have a decent shot next year at beating them based on who they are losing. If we "grow" as a team offensively and defensively...we are starting to get the depth / talent we need to compete with anyone.
I'd guess from here on out with msu and OSU we might expect to split every other year. Going to be some dog fights fellas.
I meant splitting. Win one. Lose one. It's hard to win rivalries year in /year out. Especially now that our rivals have quality coaches.
If we don't start winning vs msu/Ohio, hoke and co. may be in trouble.
They'll take a step back just because they're losing so much on defense. Dennard, Allen, Bullough, Lewis, Reynolds are all have expiring eligilibility (and Drummond and Calhoun might decide to get on the train and leave early, though Calhoun would be a stretch maybe).
I'll admit that I thought the same thing after the 2010 season, when they lost Greg Jones, Eric Gordon, Rucker, and Hyde. Dantonio coached up a bunch of three-star freshmen and sophomores in 2011 and their defense was even better, though. I think this year is more of a loss than 2010, and they'll be less formidable next year.
They lose three starters on the OL, too.
In sum, you probably have to assume they'll probably be a top-25-caliber team next year just based on Dantonio's track record in getting defenses ready. I don't expect top-10 again, though.
There's really no reason to believe that.
Mark Dantonio won a NC as defensive coordinator at OSU and Narduzzi has spent his entire life as a DC under Mark Dantonio. I'll take Dantonio between the two of them.
How much of that 02' season was due to him? Considering the fact that Tressell won 4 national titles at YSU I'd say Tressell had a significant influence on that team. Dantonio has not won a national title without Tressell.
Tressell never won a national title at OSU without Dantonio. If you want to attribute any and all success to those around him then there's really no reason to continue discussing this.
I'm just applying your logic to other parts of his career. Dantonio is an outstanding coach, but there is no doubt that he has had help from other outstanding coaches in his career.
Good coaches know that to win you need other good coaches around you to succeed. Tressell surely knows this.(Dantonio, Heacock) as did Bo.(James, McCartney)
My question is how will MSU respond to a loss of an outstanding DC in Narduzzi? That is the question none of us know.
How about we worry about us?
How are we going to do in a division that is 10x harder than the Legends?
ohio is ohio, sparty will be on the road, Michigan was supposed to clobber PSU this year, IU