How does Rudock change your 2015 predictions?
He wasn't the best qb in the country but Ruddock had pretty good numbers and provides a massive improvement in the Michigan qb department. Now that we have him, what are your thoughts on the season and what areas are you still concerned about. I think WRs could still be an issue but we have Jake Butt at TE to take some pressure off of them. I think our defense will be the best it's been since 2006 but we may still have some question marks at defensive end.
We just picked up two wins with him at the helm.
Like others, it raises the floor but maybe not the ceiling.
I'm going with 9 wins.
The schedule is favorable, but OSU might be even better this year, PSU (away) will be tough and Utah (away) will be a top 25 team.
Hope springs eternal, but my expectations are tempered by what has happened over the last eight years (yes, including Carr's final year.) Even Harbaugh took time to get Stanford up to speed. I guess I'd be pretty happy with an 8 - 4 record, and anything better would be wonderful.
Really, if Michigan wins versus MSU or OSU or both, I'd be ecstatic with an 8 - 4 record. (I'd rather be 8 - 4 with a win over both those two then 10 - 2 with a loss to those two.) Mostly, I want Michigan to be competitive in every game, and not to lose because of bone headed coaching and play. Play to win, but don't make stupid mistakes again and again. If the OL and DL and secondary and receivers and RB are playing as well as they can and we lose, I can live with that. Our recruiting hasn't been at the same level as OSU, even though it improved from Hoke over RR. If Michigan is competitive, and the caliber of recruits improves by 2016, I would be altogether happy.
Not much has changed. Still expect the team to win a bowl game and be between 7 and 9 total wins for the year including the bowl win.
that this helps you get at least another win. And let's remember--he COULD help us withOUT starting, step in and stabilize at some point when Malzone or Shane struggles.
My floor is 8 wins. The difference now is that there is not a single game on the schedule which I do not think we can win, where with Malzone or Morris I think that a couple of the road games would be losses. I predict a 11-2 season with a win in a bowl game. The two losses will be Penn St and Utah
The biggest question mark, obviously, is the QB position. Rudock isn't a world-beater, but he was efficient, and that says a lot considering he was in a Kirk Ferentz-coached offense. Under Harbaugh's tutelage he could find an extra gear. Either way, I feel much better going into next season knowing that the team has a QB option with a lot of experience.
I'd say the floor is probably 8 wins, 9 most likely, and then 10+ if the team catches a few breaks along the way. The O-Line was starting to come along towards the end of the year, and now that they have quality coaching, they should continue to get better. Ty Isaac getting onto the field will be a big help, especially if the O-Line leaps forward. The defense should be good, potentially great if the line can finally start pressuring the QB.
If Rudock can be a steady hand at the QB position, I don't see why we can't have a good season. He'll be learning from one of the best in the business, so there's nothing saying he can't be good next year. Yeah he was meh at Iowa, but Iowa's offense was meant to be as vanilla as it could possibly get.
The fact that he's started games in the B1G vs our current choices who are young and/or have had poor outings...its worth at least 1-2 wins for me.
I thought we'd go 8-4 next year...Now I think 9-3 or 10-2 is possible if he comes in and performs.
Love it!
sjw
Without anointing a start necessarily, I would agree with others that this definitely raises the floor on this season, at least in my opinion. My guess based on very little data right now is that the floor just moved to 8-4 with the addition of Rudock. Looking at the roster, the ceiling is a rather high ceiling - I'll put it like that - perhaps something like 10-2. I haven't even run numbers using Massey yet for the season, but it wouldn't mean much based on available data (which includes last year). Yesterday, I would have had the floor at 7-5, but I think we get a couple back having Rudock's experience there.
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In his defense, I think Griese was better than "game manager"....the guy had a pretty decent NFL career afterall.
Still have them with 4 losses to Utah, BYU, MSU and OSU. 8 wins is my baseline expectation. 6 wins would be the possible realistic possibility with 9 wins as the ceiling IMO.
It's possible, considering that it's the opening game, under a new coach, on the road. But something tells me that Harbaugh is going to have the team as ready to play that game as any in the history of the program. I almost shudder thinking about what the Utes could be in for.
and they're a top 25 team last year. Their defense is strong. Tough first game for Harbaugh. If it's at home, it'd be different.
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A few things that are interesting to me:
1) How dominant can the defense be? I think it has a good chance at keeping M in every game on the schedule.
2) How much is the OL going to develop from last season to this season? A solid OL and running game, as we all know, would make a world of difference.
3) Many on this board are concerned with the WRs, myself included. BUT, we have been conditioned over the last 4 years to expect next to no player development. How well will Harbaugh & Co. develop the receivers as the season progresses.
4) Finally, unlike recent years, it will be exciting to see the players/team improve from week to week. This is something that we really only saw in year 1 with Hoke.
I can't wait!
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it doesn't change my outlook at this point. I am still thinking 8 wins.
I reserve the right to change my opinion after the Spring game and/or fall practice.
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If you just use chalk, then we win 7 games:
Oregon St, UNLV, Maryland, Northwestern, Minnesota, Rutgers, Indiana
The question is, which of the remaining games gets us to 8+:
Utah - they lost their coordinators but return a number of guys that whipped our ass
BYU - it's a home game, but....
MSU - they are gonna be tough to beat. Loads of returning players.
Penn State - likely a night game on the road where we haven't had any success.
Ohio St - Defending. National. Champs.
Man, I don't know if Rudock does anything to help that schedule.
I think we take one of those games, I'm guessing Utah because Harbaugh will have the team pumped and they'll be adjusting to new coordinators...
So, 8 wins, with a win at a bowl game. The key for next year will be discipline, execution, and player development. I'm more interested in seeing that. If that happens, the rest will follow.
I"m not sure Ruddock is a lock here. I'm glad we got him, but he has to come in in the fall practices and learn a new system. I kind of hope he does because I think right now we need more stability and less flash at the QB position.
Utah - Lost their coordinators but return a number of starters who may be overconfident because they whipped our Hoke-coached asses, but they may get a surprise when they run into a team that is "Four times tougher than last years team." - Marcus Ray. That is well coached - Harbaugh, and doesn't turn the ball over every time there is pressure on the QB, and plays good special teams. It will be a good game, but I would not mark it down as a loss just yet, but I do think it will be a good measuring stick as far as how far this team has come under Harbaugh.
Michigan 30-27
BYU - Harbaugh was on the team that lost the 1984 Holiday Bowl to an undefeated BYU team that won the National Championship on Michigan's corpse. The team went 6-6 that year and Bo almost went insane, I have to believe Harbaugh will have the team ready to play this game.
Michigan 45-38
MSU - Being at home makes all the difference, MSU may be ahead right now, but as we all know, he better team doesn't always win.
Michigan 28-27 or MSU 28-27
Penn St. - We will beat Penn St. Two years ago, the buffoon coaching staff that was, sorry Hoke lovers, but as long as this stuff is taked about, it will be talked about, gave the game away, and we should have beat them easily. Last year, we beat them. They are young, and although they have a top notch QB, I don't think Franklin knows how to use him
Michigan 34-17
That Cow Patty School Down South - In a rivalry game, anything can, and usually does, happen. They have more on-field talent, we are at home, and have lost to them too many times recently, and the coaching is roughly even, we might have a small advantage in overall coaching staff, but who knows ?
Michigan 35-34 or TCPSDS 35-34
The one game you overlook is the away game at Minnesota. It will be a tough game, but we should win it.
Michigan 38-31 or Minnesota 24-23
I'm calling 9-3 to 10-2 overall. No Big Ten Championship game, but a good bowl game - Citrus Bowl.
So you have our 5 toughest games as potential 5-0 or 4-1 most likely yet hold out a 3 loss season. If we go 5-0 or 4-1 vs those 5 it would be a severe disappointment to lose 2 other games to teams with less talent than UM.
It helps the margin of error for all those games. It makes a game like BYU from a "toss up" to UM should now be favored. It reduces the line in Vegas vs Utah, etc.
Games will be more determined by normal things such as turnovers and special teams plays vs "can our QB run any offense".
And this road game thing with no success has to end. PSU is not a powerhouse - they lost some key defensive talent. On paper PSU and UM are really quite similar. We should no longer be in an era you give up 8-10 pts just by being on the road. That's a hoke thing.
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We would have won 8 games this year with Hoke and our existing stable of QBs.
Harbaugh gets us to 10 wins.
Rudock gets us to 11 wins.
I really like that part about him. We'll probably see some of this....
Followed by some of this:
So prepare accordingly.
i don't like making predictions in the spring. I will predict Rudock will make this team better. Even if he is only an extra set of experienced eyes telling the playing quarterback what he sees out on the field. Oh, what the heck, he moves them from 8-4 to 9-3. Bowl game I won't predict, because we have no idea whom we'll be playing. Oh, what the heck, MEECHIGAN wins the bowl game!
Doesn't really matter who is at QB if the OL can't protect him. Devin was sacked 26 times last year, which is just a ridiculous number.
I'll be happy with a bowl game next fall.
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Can you friend please write an exclusive feature for MGoBlog? Move over Brian, enter Iowa Season ticket holder guy!
I thought 2015 would originally finish anywhere from 6 to 9 wins. Now I would go up one and say 7 to 10 wins. If Morris wins out that could push it 11. I think Morris could beat OSU at home. It would be nice if OSU is ranked number 1 and Harbaugh beats OSU in the big house, just like Bo back in '69.
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perhaps the best coach in football today college or pro. There is no doubt that he is well on the way to geting the team to adopt his world view and become believers. The overall quality of this coaching staff exceeds any staff in college football. The players are hungry, hard working, and have plenty of talent. Were this Harbaugh's third year, I'd say that 10+ wins would be expected with an excellent shot at running the table into the playoffs.
But this is NOT his third year. Top college programs are about stability and consistency. There is far to little coaching time to teach a new system in an off season. Sometimes lightening strikes, but that is far from a given. I love optimism. Hell in the pool I play in I never pick Michigan to lose. But that is my heart not my head.
The reality is that Rudock has experience and was a pretty good QB, but that was in a different system. When this team takes the field on September 3rd no member of the offense or defense will have a single in game snap in the new system. NOT one. Maybe Rudock will start, maybe not. My perspective is that the most important aspect of the offense will be line play. Period. If the line can keep the QB clean and open holes for the running backs, any of our scholarship QBs can get the job done. If not...
Yes Utah has new coordinators, but from what I've read, mostly here, the schemes are unchanged. They have many returning starters. They are at home and charged up to hand Michigan its ass. With or without Rudock 8 regular season wins will be a damn fine start to Harbuagh's legacy.
Could this team get 10+ wins? Of course. Could it run the table? Of course. Cinderella teams happen. If things break the right way. If the injury god takes the season off. When you have a talented team with this kind of coaching, and things start to fall their way literally anything can happen. But that is NOT a reasonable expectation.
As someone said in another thread - it's time to pump the brakes. We can argue about whether or not the big ten was in a slump in the past. These days it's pretty clear that the top of the big ten is as tough a conference as any in college football. Yes we get MSU and Ohio at home, but neither of them are about to lay down and we have some tough road games to play.
I have no doubt that this team will fight to the bitter end in every game, but they can still get blown out.
Rudock dramtically increases the likelihood that if the starter gets injured there is a competent backup to step in. That is the case no matter who wins the starting job.
The schemes are not going to change much with these coaches, either. Brady Hoke and Jim Harbaugh are not entirely unalike, and perhaps more importantly, Al Borges/Doug Nussmeier are not far from Harbaugh/Drevno as play callers. They like to line up with a fullback, a tight end or two, run the ball, throw play action stuff, occasionally spread it out, etc.
Furthermore, Michigan has a lot of returning starters, too. The offense only lost Gardner, Miller, and Funchess. The defense only lost Clark, Beyer, Ryan, and Taylor. And while Funchess and Ryan were stars (or had the potential to be stars), the overall experience throughout the roster probably cancels out their departures, especially when you consider that Funchess didn't produce much.
So I don't really buy the experience thing or the change of coordinators thing. Michigan has an experienced team whose schemes are similar (but might be called something different). I don't expect Harbaugh to win a national championship immediately, but he has some pieces in place to put forth a pretty darn good team.