How does Lewan coming back change your expectations for next year?

As M fans contemplate their team's chances for 2013, thoughts of 12-0 often arise. And why not? Anything can happen. In fact, it could all hinge on four game situations:

First, M won't start the season against the BCS champion. Second, against ND Golson might throw 4 ints (and a RB throw one more), thus ensuring an M victory. Against NE a banged-up Martinez might have to leave the game and be replaced by an struggling RS freshman, ensuring yet another victory. In the final, tightly fought game, with two stout Ds controlling the second half, M's two FGs would provide the only second-half scoring and the winning margin against Ohio.

I mean, this stuff has happened before, and can happen again. 12-0 is out there. Never give up hope!

I'm less a football expert than most here, but have consistently predicted closer to our actual season-end WLs than most, the record will show. People just tend to be wildly optimistic about what it takes. Nine and three would be great for me next year, with better to come.  

Some early thoughts on our O-line

LT- Taylor-duh

LG- Kalis-beast

C- Miller, but Kugler will challenge

RG- Schofield vs Bryant

RT- Braden vs Magnuson, Schofield moving inside increases our athleticism

How long until practice starts..too long!

Too many people are just writing off Fitz. Granted, he had a forgettable season. But he came in late -- his own fault, yes -- and was running behind a very meh line that didn't open many holes for any other backs, either. And then, of course, the leg. But he's shown himself to be a very good back in the right circumstances. And I expect he'll come back very hungry. That's assuming he heals properly, of course. But there's no reason to assume he won't. I'm excited about a running game that includes Lewan, Fitz, and Green/Smith. 

I thought that our biggest question mark next year was the ability of all those young O-linemen to gel and perform.  This will help the O-line immensely.  I think this means that we should have at least a serviceable running game and a good passing game to go with a suffocating defense.  In college football, that means the sky is the limit.  I have a lot of confidence in DG and I think this means the offense will click pretty well.  A huge deal.

Part of the problem is that people read 'prediction' as 'best-case scenario that is at least reasonably possible.' I don't think it's insane to think Michigan could go 12-0 considering our talent and our schedule, but you're off your damn rocker if you think that's the most likely result. It's better to think in terms of a baseline, or a midpoint between best and worst outcomes, IME.

Howeva, I have a hard time thinking objectively at all about OSU, and I think that unless we start seeing a Cooper/Lloyd dynamic start to unfold, The Game's as unpredictable as it gets (also leaving aside the immense talent discrepancies from 2009-2011). That said, to me the baseline is 10-2 with an OSU win and 9-3 with a loss. I'm predicting two losses from the NW, MSU, NU, PSU, ND quintet, in order of increasing likelihood. Predicting three losses from that group isn't entirely batty either.

We're a great home team under Hoke, but not a great road team. Expect at least one road loss, wtih the likeliest candidates being MSU and Northwestern. (Just because MSU crashed this year doesn't mean it won't be very difficult to win in East Lansing next year...as it happens it was very difficult to beat them in Ann Arbor this year). 

In terms of home games, ND doesn't really scare me without Teo and Eifert. Nor does Nebraska. So it comes down to Ohio. Are we going to be good enough to theoretically beat them at home? I think so. Are we going to actually beat them at home? We'll see.  

I think that it is worth one victory, but not more.  I was thinking 8-4/9-3 before this.  Now I'm thinking 9-3/10-2.  Interior line is a huge question mark.  Receivers and TEs other than Gallon are huge question marks.  RB looks to have no talent outside of true freshmen.  D-line and defensive backfield are badly lacking in established playmakers.  Shedule is easier than average, but not a complete cupcake walk.  Penn State is on the road.  Iowa and MSU are teams that I think we would beat easily at home,but those are both on the road and we have sucked especially at Iowa City.  Two of our home games are against teams that went 12-0 this year.  Lots of games on that schedule next year where I would peg our chances of wining at about 60%, which means that I'm expecting a few losses.

Coaches have called guard his natural position. My guess is based more on the athleticism, length and speed of  Magnuson/ Braden. Both have much larger frames and longer arms, which is a huge help dealing with speedy edge rushers. I think Magnuson is our next All-American tackle.

I respect Lewan, and I think he's an absolute beast based on the games I've watched him play in this last season. I certainly think with the games against teams with good defenses (Scar, MSU, OSU) he held his own and could be a captain to help anchor the OL. However, I don't get how Lewan is equivalent to the"Michigan difference" between Michigan getting an extra win and not. It was predicted on another forum topic what Michigan record would be for the 2013 season but it seems a few says he's worth an extra win. If one player can singularly contribue to make that much of a difference, in which games do you see him making a difference? I wouldn't be too quick to sellout the talent on Michigan OL even without him.

We've heard the staff really likes Braden.  If he's so good, he should get on the field at RT.  Schofield can move back to LG next to Lewan, which worked really well in the past.  Then there are only two interior spots for a bunch of guys (Bryant, Miller, Kalis, Bars, the walkons, Kugler) to compete over.  Also, it gives Braden a chance to tune up for the point when the left handed Morris will be QB.  Magnusen understudies for another year behind Lewan at LT.

14-0 is obviously the correct answer.

I'd like to wait and see what happens in Spring Practice. I want to see if there is any attrition or if guys are struggling. We have a favorable schedule, we have Lewan coming back, we have what appears to be stability on defense, I think that we have a decent shot at going undefeated. I think it will be really tough though because I'm convinced that Michigan and Ohio State will face each other twice this season, possibly splitting the two games. I'd say anything below 10-2 would be a disappointing year. 

For the young guys may make the most difference.