How all 128 FBS college football teams fared against expectations in 2014
SBNation charted how each school's football team performed relative to Vegas preseason expectations. I think we all know about where Michigan would fall on this list, but it is interesting to see in a chart with every school listed. Michigan finished 124 out of 128, and only South Carolina was worse among Power 5 schools. Ugh.
December 15th, 2014 at 8:00 AM ^
Ah, yes, expectations. I remember those fondly. 10-2/11-1, maybe even 12-0! I mean, if they can just find a way to win in East Lansing they're golden, because they should be able to pick up their first win in the Horseshoe since 2000 with little difficulty, since Braxton Miller's hurt and Ohio State's going to have "some loser no one's heard of" at QB, amirite?
December 15th, 2014 at 8:41 AM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
December 15th, 2014 at 8:46 AM ^
This comment is amazingly and disgustingly accurate.
December 15th, 2014 at 9:00 AM ^
It's easy to boil down such flawed reasoning when one was among the guilty engaging in it...
December 15th, 2014 at 9:49 AM ^
As Yogi Berra once said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
December 15th, 2014 at 9:42 AM ^
Underperforming as we did is a scathing indictment of the coaching staff. No further justification for Hoke's firing beyond this year's performance is necessary.
December 15th, 2014 at 10:52 AM ^
it's an indictment of Vegas and all of the fans who misunderestimated things
December 15th, 2014 at 11:13 AM ^
Based on last year's team, and with an improving O-line, with a 5th year senior QB, there is no reason to not have expected better performance except coaching.
December 15th, 2014 at 8:00 AM ^
Not sure I need to be reminded that this year was a disapointment. Happy Monday I guess...
December 15th, 2014 at 8:02 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 8:32 AM ^
Would you settle for a face punch....
December 15th, 2014 at 8:09 AM ^
A lost season. Going on 10 years now since we were nationally relevant...
December 15th, 2014 at 8:10 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 8:12 AM ^
App State turned out to be quite the quality win haha
December 15th, 2014 at 8:25 AM ^
But it could have been a lot worse. I'm not sure what a second loss to App State would have done to me.
Probably:
December 15th, 2014 at 8:29 AM ^
Ah, but we tight to both Rutgers and Maryland.
December 15th, 2014 at 8:51 AM ^
@ The Mick
EDIT: Beaten to the punch. <walks away in shame>
December 15th, 2014 at 8:59 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 9:14 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 12:39 PM ^
Ah, but that's spelling, not grammar.
December 15th, 2014 at 8:11 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 8:38 AM ^
But the Harbaugh news seems to come in waves. Good one day and bad the next.
I'm buying into the "no news is good news" camp. All we can do is wait.
December 15th, 2014 at 8:11 AM ^
So can we hire Western Michigan's coach yet?
December 15th, 2014 at 8:57 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 9:30 AM ^
Isn't that just a rumor on RCMB...?
December 15th, 2014 at 8:02 PM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 9:45 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 8:18 AM ^
Here is the table with just the Big Ten results:
| Rank | Team | Projected win total | Actual win total | Plus/Minus |
| T-11 | Rutgers | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| T-21 | Minnesota | 6.5 | 8 | 1.5 |
| T-34 | Illinois | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| T-34 | Nebraska | 8 | 9 | 1 |
| T-40 | Maryland | 6.5 | 7 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Michigan State | 9.5 | 10 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Ohio State | 10.5 | 11 | 0.5 |
| T-40 | Wisconsin | 9.5 | 10 | 0.5 |
| T-63 | Purdue | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| T-82 | Indiana | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Iowa | 8.5 | 7 | -1.5 |
| T-82 | Penn State | 7.5 | 6 | -1.5 |
| T-112 | Northwestern | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 |
| 124 | Michigan | 8 | 5 | -3 |
Not that it means much, but the average projected wins would come out to 7.142 against an actual performance of 7 wins, so typical performances were a smidge below expectations. Ours was....blech.
December 15th, 2014 at 8:41 AM ^
Wow. They go to the first playoff as the number 4 seed, and they underachieved. I'd like those expectations!
December 15th, 2014 at 9:25 AM ^
Or were these published before? I thought I remembered a story about a couple casinos in Vegas taking the Bucks O/U wins off the board when Miller's injury was announced b/c there was a HUGE run in betting the under.... Just looking at these, I'd expect OSU would have downshifted 1-1.5 wins with Barrett as opposed to Miller.
December 15th, 2014 at 11:48 AM ^
Actually they overachieved by a half game. You really have little room to overachieve when your expectations coming into the year are 10.5 wins
December 15th, 2014 at 11:16 AM ^
Anyone? Anyone?
December 15th, 2014 at 8:19 AM ^
I still can't get over the fact that we're one of TWO Big Ten teams to not make it to a bowl. Basically, we were Purdue this year. Yeesh.
December 15th, 2014 at 10:58 AM ^
We're one of FOUR Big Ten teams to not make it to a bowl. You forgot Northwestern and Indiana.
December 15th, 2014 at 8:27 AM ^
Oh, it's not that bad. We're actually one of four B1G teams that didn't make a bowl game. See, it's not so bad.
December 15th, 2014 at 8:29 AM ^
I don't think Northwestern or Indiana or going bowling either with 5 and 4 wins, respectively.
December 15th, 2014 at 8:20 AM ^
Well, in the great big dissapointing mess that is 2014, as a former Bronco, seeing WMU up there is one very, very small speck of joy, and goodness knows I'll take it wherever I can get it. Go Western!
December 15th, 2014 at 8:46 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 9:22 AM ^
December 15th, 2014 at 9:26 AM ^
Well, we did help Rutgers, Minnesota, and Maryland win more than they were expected. That's gotta count for something, doesn't it?
December 15th, 2014 at 9:32 AM ^
That one of the few things in my life that has brought me joy over the past 35ish years, now brings only pain.
Great way to start the week!
December 15th, 2014 at 9:44 AM ^
I saw that Eastern was projected to win 2.5 games. How the hell do you win half a game?
Oh wait, never mind. I'll take the Western game. We lost 48-0 in the first half but won 7-3 in the second half. There's our half game.
December 15th, 2014 at 9:43 AM ^
Doing some quick calculations - with124 programs and the current overtime rules (essentially eliminating ties) and discounting the FCS games, roughly half the teams will be "happy" (having a positive record) and half will be "unhappy". So about 60 teams are happy or just over 1 per state. That leaves a lot of unhappy programs and their supporters.
This is a very tough position especially when the results depend on the behavior of young men in the late teens and early twenties.
December 15th, 2014 at 10:06 AM ^
...tied for top P5 school. Yeah, I'm that guy today.
December 15th, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^
Richrod's year at Arizona is akin to Hoke's first year here except for the Oregon win. A bunch of close wins and a lot of luck to get to an inflated win total
December 15th, 2014 at 10:07 AM ^
I had us 10-3 with losses to ND, MSU & OSU but with a New Year's day bowl win over an SEC team. I also thought they we had an outside shot at 11-2 with a win over a very beatable ND team and that the MSU & OSU losses would be very close but ulimately we'd lose (unfortunately). I thought we'd end the season ranked in the top 10 and would be a top 5 team in 2015 due to our favorable home schedule, the depth Hoke had build plus our amazing incoming recruiting class and year II of what promised to be an explosive Nuss offense.
So I pretty much nailed it huh?
I'm availble for stock tips too so just drop me an email and I'll happy to help you make millions in the market.
December 15th, 2014 at 11:40 AM ^
Some guy named Bernie Madoff keeps sending me emails pitching some great investment plans. Can you hook me up with him?
December 15th, 2014 at 10:08 AM ^
EMU was projected to win 2.5 and still fell short.
December 15th, 2014 at 11:11 AM ^
I'm pretty sure they got a half win somewhere....