I'm simply pointing out your stated expectations of "a lot more no matter how young the players are" may be a little quixotic since Michigan has had embarrassing losses with senior talent before Rodriguez ever came here.
Hot for Harbaugh? Read this
speaking of "hot for harbaugh," i got an email this week from a (female) friend from UM who called harbaugh "super hot... one of the hottest guys on the planet."
i'm not sure why i'm sharing this, but i'm pretty sure that it got lodged in the "this is confusing - return to it later" part of my brain, and maybe someone here can help me with that.
And what does she think about RR?
It's the Silverfox she's hunting.
I don't want to really get into this debate, however, I feel like this must be said. Harbaugh has beaten a ranked USC team multiple times - and once a major upset. He's also taken out a top ten Oregon team and is much better in conference. Not to bash RR but if we're talking purely statistics here even with two more big ten wins he's still got a terrible big ten record and the vast majority of his wins have come over weak OOC opponents. His 1 quality win IMO is the win over Wisconsin 2 years ago.
Harbaugh has also taken a team from bottom to top where as RR has taken us from top to bottom (which may or may not be because of other factors just stating facts here).
The word of the day is PERSONNEL, the team with the better personnel wins and Butch Davis approves this message.
Their "personnel" comes into Iowa city ranked significantly lower than the "personnel" of Ohio State, Michigan State, and Michigan. They will likely beat all three this year. Now, if you're arguing that their personnel is better "at this point", well then that just means their coaches did a better job than ours which blows up your whole argument that talent=wins.
The point is that a coaching change doesn't give you automatic wins, Kelly to ND comes to mind.
The point about Butch was that the most important thing he did for that blue team was hire a recruiting guy( someone to get the best players in the nation ), Right, that worked out well.
I don't think anyone takes inferior players and wins with them, if they did then good coaches wouldn't recruit, they would just pick their players from the students on campus.
That's not to say an inferior player can't become a good player but that takes time.
Coaches make a difference, just not night and day kind of difference.
Rich has no quality wins. Wisconsin was 7-6 that year, 3-5 in the BigTen and lost the Champs Sports Bowl by 29 points.
what is the metric for "Michigan Manliness?"
Stanford won 16 games in the 5 seasons before Harbaugh arrived. Michigan won 46 in the 5 seasons before Rodriguez. That's the difference here.
I'm not clamoring for Rodriguez to be fired and Harbaugh to come in and take his place. But let's not pretend like someone's record at Stanford is analogous to someone's at Michigan. Rodriguez won 48 games in the 5 seasons before leaving West Virginia. How's that working out for him now?
dear lord glad someone finally said it. the single most important factor ignored by the OP.
also worth mentioning (and others here have) - harbaugh is a recruiting MONSTER.
my mind is completely and utterly blown.
exept, you know, before harbaugh came stanford went 1-11 and had a total of 2 winning seasons since 1997.
but other than that. still blown away.
Assuming that Michigan beats Illinois and Purdue and then wins its bowl game, Rich Rod will almost certainly not be fired. Then, if Rodriguez leads Michigan to a 7-1 start next year, as Harbaugh has led Stanford this year, he will almost certanly be around for the 2012 season, as well. Thus, I am not really sure what your point is. The problem lies in the very real possibility that Michigan is looking at 7-6 or worse. If that happens, your point is null
We're going to lose to Illinois unless we have a TOM of +2-+3. Purdue is a toss-up. We no longer have JT Floyd. I'll believe we win a big ten game when I see it.
Tell us what does the future hold!!
to the story where IU got booted from the Big 10?
You realize they still have to play the game right? Crazier things have happened in college football.
Right, this is exactly what I was thinking. If we win 8 games a new coach discussion isn't necessary. Since we probably won't, Harbaugh will have done better in 3 years at Stanford than RR has at UM. No doubt Harbaugh's cupboard was pretty bare as well.
Harbaugh is 1-2 vs. Cal so far.
This year's game?
Like Michigan, Stanford has 4 games to play against some tough opposition: Arizona (7-1), ASU (4-4, ok, not so tough), Oregon State (4-3) and Cal (4-4).
Before we fire that guy over there and hire this guy, let's exercise some patience, heh?
No doubt about it. I bet Stanford wins out, and I'd be shocked if they lose more than one. They're a top 10 team. I'd kill for M to look like Stanford right now.
Even if Harbaugh were to come here, it doesn't solve the problems on defense. Harbaugh doesn't give the players experience with a snap of his fingers.
I think everyone realizes that Stanford != Michigan in football, but the point is that sometimes teams take a couple of years to grow into the personality and strengths of its coaching staff. The defense probably won't improve immensely in the next couple of years, but the offense has definitely made some strides.
And for the record, let's not act like RR took over a juggernaut. Look at the depth chart the past couple of years under Carr, and consider how virtually none of those upperclassmen are playing well right now. The fact that RR came in right when the wheels were beginning to come off the UM wagon shouldn't be discounted - if Carr had stuck around and muddled through some 5-7, 6-6, 7-5, 8-4 seasons, the "rebuilding program" meme wouldn't have been so easy to dismiss initially. I'm not saying that I am supremely satisfied with the performance by RR so far, but it is not as crazy to compare the rebuilding jobs both coaches inherited.
Do you think the upperclassmen you speak of would be playing well? I actually don't know the answer to this and I don't think anyone does. But I think its unfair to Lloyd to just assume b/c RR couldn't get Lloyd's recruits to play well that Lloyd couldn't have also.
Especially when Lloyd had a decade+ long track record of doing so.
I would imagine that if you looked at the track records for most established coaches, they would, on balance, show an ability to get the most out of their upperclassmen - you don't stick around in football if you can't. RR certainly showed an ability to WVU, and so far can point to guys like Brandon Graham, Mike Martin, Zoltan, Stevie Brown, large portions of the offensive line, and Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown (both when healthy) as upperclassmen who play/ed well under RR. Sure, Ezeh and Mouton have not been great, but on the balance RR has done a moderately good job with the upperclassmen he inherited.
I'm not knocking Carr, but player development is a fickle creature and, especially when you look at a small sample size, you might see one coach struggle because of what his predecessor left behind.
that Lloyd wasn't struggling to develop players over his tenure. It is unfair, IMO, to say x or y would have happened if Lloyd was still the coach (whether x or y be positive or negative). RR has been coaching these guys for 3 years, their development in that time is on him for better (Molk, Ommameh, etc.) or worse (Ezeh, Mouton, etc.).
everything you've said, RR's ability to field an above average defense with anybody not named Jeff Casteel is still my biggest question mark.
Harbaugh was able to "use" Shafer correctly. As far as that tune goes, how would Michigan have fared this year with a 68th ranked defense?
and Harbaugh won at the LA Coliseum in both 2007 and 2009. In 2007 his team was a 40 point underdog. Last year the beating was so severe that he had the great Pete Carroll whimpering about it after the game.
Rich has beaten the following quality big ten teams on the road:
Not denying the stats you bring up. However, marginalizing Harbaugh's job performance or even equating him with what Rich has done at Michigan makes the hard core "Rich must stay" crowd look desperate.
Rich's argument is continued improvement from a very rudimentary starting point offensively. That has been impressive overall. Continuity is also a huge part of it. What he lacks is a legit skin or two on the wall in the conference. I am hoping Illinois is like a spike horned trophy and Wisconsin will be the 14 point buck. Leaving no doubt.
In 2007 USC's starting QB was injured. Last year USC went 8-4, so it's not like they were the juggernaut of years past. Oh, and last year Stanford lost to a Wake Forest team that went 5-7 on the year. Maybe that equates this this year's PSU???
What about our win over Wisconsin in the first year? What if we beat Wisconsin again this year?
The whole point isn't that they are completely equal, but that everyone expects that Harbaugh is going to turn things around in a year, when really, the defense is going to take a few years to grow. That's going to happen under any coach.
If you're going to downgrade Stanford's wins against USC for whatever reason, then you'd better do the same for our win over Wisconsin in 2008. They finished that season something like 7-6. They weren't particularly good.
than anyone Richrod. Beating USC at SC with Stanford's then poor talent was an significant achievement no matter who started at QB for SC. Knocking that win us the tactic of a person who does not have the facts to make a good argument.
Comparing a 6-6 Wisconsin team to a 11 win SC team makes your argument look even weaker. Plus, UM won that game @ home.
You may be right about some fans wanting a quick fix, but it also might be true that the fans just want to feel like the guy in charge of the situation is taking this places.
On USC in 07, check my facts but I think they set a record in the 08 and 09 NFL drafts for most players taken from one school over a two year period. One of the years they had 12 guys on defense drafted. They were so deep and good defensively that non-starters were getting drafted.
Last year, wasn't that the USC that beat our conference champion in Columbus with a freshman quarterback.?
It was a very impressive win, both years. Rich has done himself no favors by A. Not really coming close to anything as impressive in conference. B. Not building off of the good wins he has had.
Beat Notre Dame on the road, struggle with an FCS school the next week etc. I hate admitting this, but this year looks exactly like 09 to date. This is on Rich and his w/l accomplishments and this ever extending timetable for the rebuild. At least from me, it is no witch hunt and I doubt from anyone else on this board.
It is about accountability and tangible win/loss results. He still has the opportunity to do enough to stay. I am pulling for him.
Expect to see a'lot of these
It actually looks like he's giving head to Taco Pants.
Speculate all you want. The fact is Jim Harbaugh is not our coach , Rich Rod is. Can we stop all this until and if the reality changes.
...the speculative Harbaugh threads are a collective subconscious attempt at creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Quack, Quack, Quack
Likely a lot better than our team would right now.
How do we do against in conference teams not named Indiana...?
um, not really fair dont ya think?
how does everybody do against oregon in 2010, numero uno team in america?
...quack quack quack
what other spread offenses have beat him this year?
Have you seen the teams he has shut out? And Harbaugh has a huge disadvantage recruiting-wise vs the rest of the Pac10, for many recruits dont want to deal with the academic rigors at Stanford. Harbaugh > Rodriguez.
than 4 victories in the Pac 10
Why do people even want him? He hasn't taken Stanford anywhere. Last time everyone wanted Les Miles, now would poop there pants if he was even considered. A hot coaching name doesn't equal wins. If you want Harbaugh we have another 4 years of rebuilding to a pro style offense.
Maybe I am in the minority, but look at what hes done at LSU. Sure, we'd have a few heart attacks, but I'm relatively sure he'd have more than 4 b10 wins if we had hired him in 2007.
I liked how earlier on in the early Miles was declared a poisoned stock. Yet he's 7-1 with his only loss to Auburn. He might be crazy, but he has "lucky" to offset that.
7-1 with your only loss to Auburn is pretty good even if you are nutty.
gets far better recruits on the whole than UM.
wins because he would have inherited his own system. Rich Rod wouldn’t have recruited any of those players he inherited because they didn’t fit his system. If Les came here now he wouldn’t be successful until he got his type of players. What do you think?
but in hindsight, maybe that is something that should have been taken into account when making the coaching hire.