Hoops - The "bubble" has already burst
Alright, six games into the hoops season, and one thing is clear, Michigan will not get in to the NCAA tourney as a bubble team. Wins against Marquette and Boston College (perhaps) would have been nice little "quality wins" for this team's resume, but the loss to Alabama and Marquette) will now fit nicely into the "bad losses" category even though Marquette was clearly a decent team.
What does that mean. In my opinion, that means Michigan needs to finish fifth or higher (outright) in the big ten and beat Utah (barring any other unforeseen pre-conference losses.)No three way ties for sixth or 9-9 finishes. To finish fifth, Michigan is going to have to win those "trap" or "snakepit" games in the Big Ten, tough to do. Games like on the road at Iowa, and on the road against Penn State. These games that both Michigan and Michigan State have lost with regularity for the last five years (longer for M) have to go in the win column this year.
Michigan needs to be a comfortable upper level Big Ten team to get into the NCAA tourney after this horrific start. With games still against Connecticut and Kansas, the sheer number of predictable losses for this team already means that they are going to be limited to about 6-7 max Big Ten losses to squeeze in. Now of course, a win against Kansas or Connecticut, as unlikely as that is right now, would make the picture a little different and may put Michigan back on the right side of that bubble. Right now, however, wins against Connecticut and/or Kansas look about as likely as, well, Gene Hackman will have to measure the distance between the free throw line and the basket before the game in order for Michigan to stand a chance.
As for how to handle business in the Big Ten, after this start I really don't have many suggestions. By I will give three just for the hell of it. 1) I would bring D. Sims off the bench (gasp). Yes, I think that he is a liabily on the floor right now, and I don't like the formula of the starting line up. Sims and Novac out, Wright and Gibson in. A more physical start to the game and instant offense of the bench. 2) Manny Harris - go to, twenty shots per game minimum, go from more of a nameless, faceless offense to an offense with a focus toward this unique talent. Hit him in the post, on the wing, top of the key isos, etc. 3) Rebound. I hope the boxing out drills are plentiful this week and in the future. If you play zone, great, but start figuring out how to secure of d-rebound from the zone or this is going to be a loooooong season.
Go Blue.
December 3rd, 2009 at 7:30 AM ^
There is still plenty of games left to kick some ass in, and we haven't even started conference play. We may not be a top seed, but we WILL make the tourney. This team has the talent, they just need to focus more...and attacking the basket wouldn't hurt either.
December 3rd, 2009 at 7:38 AM ^
Just don't think it can be a bubble situation or will be on the outside looking in. On selection day, the only question needs to be seeding. If there is a will the, won't they scenario, I don't like M's chances with this start.
December 3rd, 2009 at 7:55 AM ^
They just seem so flat...it's very troubling to watch. There so small and right now there not doing any of the things smaller teams need to do to have success. Manny and Sims will be fine but I really expected more out of Zack and Stu...It's early so maybe they can get it together by Con. play.
December 3rd, 2009 at 8:06 AM ^
I am not sure Sims will be fine. His troubling lack of focus was swept under the rug a little due to late season success, but it seems to have worsened. And not the throw away statement that he doesn't "focus" but he really appears to be in deep thought about something other than the game. Wake up man, you can play in the NBA for god's sake, pay attention.
December 3rd, 2009 at 8:21 AM ^
I think we head this all football season too.
December 3rd, 2009 at 8:58 AM ^
got this for Christmas:
December 3rd, 2009 at 8:59 AM ^
Did you actually read what he wrote? He's not badmouthing the team or the coaching. He's just saying that, after our poor start to the season, we cannot hope to have a mediocre Big 10 season and get in as a "bubble" team. We need to finish towards the top of the conference. He did not in any way suggest we are incapable of doing so. Pretty sound reasoning to me.
December 3rd, 2009 at 8:56 AM ^
Jumping off the bandwagon already would be a premature evacuation.
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:07 AM ^
my prom night.
December 3rd, 2009 at 12:04 PM ^
Go tell Brian that, since he just posted basically the exact same thing on the main page, except more pessimistic.
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:10 AM ^
As long as this team continues to shoot so poorly, they're just not going to win very many games.
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:13 AM ^
You lost the pool, you said the B word first.
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:14 AM ^
I've never seen so many easy lay-ups for an opposing team. That was definitely a tough game to watch and I was surprised it was as close as it was in the end. Sims definitely looked like he was sleep walking out there at times, missing assignments and letting guys run right by him. Hopefully the team improves steadily throughout the season.
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:15 AM ^
It was a little troubling to watch them sometimes watch the ball instead of going after it. Without better rebounding and FTs, you are not going to get those close wins (and the game did end up being winnable despite the poor effort in the first half). They showed streaks that they are capable of playing very good D, then they would "forget" and allow easy backdoor passes. I think I wish I had been watching the Illinois game. That must have been clampdown D to get that comeback.
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:21 AM ^
Fair-weather fanbase;
Patience is what we need right now.
Still tons of time left.
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:25 AM ^
Is that a haiku?
No. Too many syllables
In the second line.
December 3rd, 2009 at 4:46 PM ^
DAMMIT!
December 3rd, 2009 at 9:45 AM ^
There are numerous problems right now with this team, but most of them can be covered up with better shooting.
Honestly, the most glaring problem is the defense. The size of our team didn't change, and yet we are giving up an absurd about of easy baskets inside. My only guess is that other teams have figured out how to attack us. If that is the case it will be up to Beilein to figure something out, either with lineup or scheme.
Even with the defense, however, if we start shooting well we can win a lot of games. A good shooting team beats Alabama and maybe wins one of the other two games as well.
Its very early in the season, so I am sticking with this team right now. We should win 3 of the next 4, building some confidence going into conference play. At that point it will be time for Manny and Sims to step up and lead this team. Hopefully they are up to the task.
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:10 AM ^
100% agree.
I imagine we'll go 7-5 non-conference (but that means winning @Utah)... so a 10-8 conference record won't be good enough
But here is the good news: We only play Purdue and Illinois once.
Key part of the schedule is the 6 games betweein 12/19 @KU and 1/17 UConn. We have to go 6-0 in these games (assuming KU is a loss):
Coppin St.
@IU
Ohio St.
@Penn St.
N'W
IU
I don't think any other Big 10 team has an "easier" first 5 conference games... go 5-0 and we're back on the map. Lose 2 of those and we're done barring multiple upsets against ranked teams.
December 3rd, 2009 at 1:25 PM ^
UConn is beatable this year. Add a Utah victory, 11 B10 victories, and at least one win in the B10 tourney and we should be A.O.K. If we lose to UConn then we'll need to add another win in the B10 tourney (or maybe a road win vs. MSU or Wisc in compensation?) to feel safe.
And of course we're all rooting for the (Golden) Eagles of Marquette and BC to soar to the top of their conferences.
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:18 AM ^
before you comment on it. All of the "bandwagon" talk is ridiculous. Find one part of my post that is degrading this team or pulling the plug, or jumping off of a bandwagon. Let football season go man, everybody was frustrated. Different team, different sport, honest and I believe, accurate analysis above.
For the record, I believe that Michigan will find itself and finish fifth in the Big Ten behind Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State, and Ohio State, make it to the sem-finals of the Big Ten tourney, and make the tourney as an eight-nine seed and make it at least out of the first round. Do those making the fairweather proclomation above have the same opinion, or are you jumping off the "bandwagon."
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:15 AM ^
jtmc33 and bklien09 (and some others that replied earlier) for reading the post and engaging in good discussion regarding the team.
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:25 AM ^
I think it's unreasonable to expect this team to pick up where last year's team left off, beginning this season with the same quality of play that ended last season. Beilein's offense and defense are both pretty complicated, and, with the graduation of Lee and Merritt, the team has to integrate players into both systems who have little (Douglass) or no (Morris, Vogrich) experience with them. Some adjustment is required, and Michigan is going to struggle during that adjustment period. In particular, as players learn the rotational rules in both Beilein's zone and man defenses, there will be fewer opportunities for easy baskets off ball reversal. There's going to be a big improvement in the defense as players learn where they're supposed to be on weak side.
This team has more talent that last year's. Losing these last three games is an indication of the adjustment, not necessarily an indication of how the whole season will go. If the young talent starts to grasp the offensive and defensive concepts, they will play well and could be surprisingly strong in Big 10 play. If the younger players don't get it quickly enough, it will be a long and difficult season.
For what it's worth, I'm betting that things will improve.
December 3rd, 2009 at 10:36 AM ^
The isolation situations with Manny at the end of the game worked well. Even when he didn't get a good shot off, he got to the line and came away with points. He's a good free throw shooter, and he should be getting to the line alot more. We should have been running the iso earlier in the game, and encouraging Manny to be more aggressive going to the rim.
Also, after a few iso sets, Harris was starting to suck in defenders and then could kick it out for a wide open three from one of our long-range bombers.
Threes are fine, but we have to get rid of 1) contested, fade-away threes; and 2) threes on the run. If you are set and in rhythm, I have no problem with jacking up tons of threes.
The 1-3-1 zone is just getting dismantled by teams. Instead of producing turnovers, it's producing layups. I'm not smart enough to figure out whether this is an execution issue or a schematic issue, but it's just not working.
I liked the full court press near the end of the game, which created some turnovers and fast break opportunities, letting our players get a little more improvisational on the offensive end and get to the hoop.
December 3rd, 2009 at 5:02 PM ^
First, bad losses are to teams with sub 100 RPI. Marquette and Boston College are expected bubble teams, these are not bad losses. Alabama will probably be right on that fringe of 100 RPI. Secondly, even if this team was say 5-1, lost to UCONN and Kansas and went 9-9 in Big Ten play they would be a bubble team. Therefore saying they need to be on the positive side of 9-9 is obvious. Third, don't get hung up on 20 wins, basketball is not like football where you need 10 wins to make the BCS as an at-large. Lots of teams start horribly, finish strong and make the dance. A much bigger key to this season will be their record in the "last 10 games". If we can somehow find a way to protect home court in big ten play, steal a victory or two against a bubble team on the road, they will be in. The start to the season is less than desirable, but if Michigan takes care of business in big ten play (winning big games like MSU, OSU, and Purdue) then they will be fine come March.
December 3rd, 2009 at 5:27 PM ^
losses to Kansas and UConn, 9-9 in big ten would get them in. But otherwise good commentary.
December 3rd, 2009 at 7:43 PM ^
seems clear. all his fault! all his fault!