Hockey PWR update
While Michigan had the weekend off, a number of the games that were played have had a pretty big effect on the Pairwise rankings. Michigan is now in a 3-way tie for second with Lowell and Duluth (and leads that group by virtue of having the best RPI of the three). Here's how that happened:
Duluth only managed one point in two games against St. Cloud. This hurt their TUC record and their RPI quite a bit, though they still win the comparison (barely) against Michigan. However, they now lose comparisons to Lowell and Minnesota.
BC won both of its games and maintains a solid RPI lead over Michigan, which is probably not going to change. That won't affect where Michigan goes, as BC will most likely end up as the #1 in Worcester, but the top overall seed gets to play the Atlantic Hockey champ in the first round, so that would be nice.
BU lost to Northeastern on Saturday. While this didn't have an immediate effect (we were already winning the comparison against BU), it might help down the road. That comparison was a precarious tie: we were winning RPI, they were winning TUCs, and our record against common opponents was a tie. The loss to Northeastern broke that tie in our favor. Also, since they might play BC in the Hockey East tournament, they had the opportunity to win the comparison with a win over BC. Now, that win won't be enough; basically, unless we suffer an RPI collapse, we have the BU comparison locked up.
At this point, it looks like the top overall seed is pretty much out of reach, but a #1 seed is very likely. If things ended today, I think we'd be the top seed in St. Paul, facing Cornell, with Minnesota-Miami likely the other regional semi. We could also get sent to Green Bay, again facing Cornell, and with Ferris-Denver probably the other semi.
Next week: CCHA quarters vs. either Notre Dame or Lake Superior. Either is a TUC, and an opportunity to improve (or hurt) our pairwise resume. Go Blue!
If we made a list of top recurring posts, you would have to be top three. Thanks for the info, and for doing it all season long.
Please, please, please send Michigan to St. Paul. A regional final of Michigan - Minnesota would be beyond exciting for this St. Paulite.
do NOT send Michigan to Saint Paul! Neither a Michigan-Miami match-up anywhere (even Yost) or a Michigan-Minnesota match-up (only in Minnesota, I feel good against them in Ann Arbor or a real neutral site) would make me feel particularly good about moving on to Tampa! I think it would still be possible, even likely, for Michigan to beat either team, but not as good as I would like. The non-1-seed schools I really don't want to see until as late in the tournament as possible, if ever, are Minnesota (because they'd be at home in the regional, I'll take that match-up in Tampa), Miami, Denver and Maine (especially not in the Frozen Four, the history makes me unahppy).
It would be very exciting, especially to someone living in the area, but boy, I'd rather take an easier route to the Frozen Four that getting past Miami or Minny in St. Paul.
EDIT: Besides, you St. Paulites got to see a few exciting Michigan Hockey games last year in St. Paul, spread the wealth!!
In Michigan's last national championship years, they beat a "host" school in their city when Kosick, Langfeld et al. beat both New Hampshire and BC in Boston in 1998. It only seems right to do it again. Also, Minnesota had quite a bit of trouble beating a very average Wisconsin at home this weekend. I'd rather draw Ferris or BU as a #2 seed, but if you told me in November that Michigan would be a #1 seed of any kind, I would have been overjoyed.
I'm still shocked that Ohio fell the way they did in the CCHA. This is a team that had talent and still does and a good goalie in Cal Heeter. How they only managed to win 1 game in two months is beyond me. In my opinion that series sweep on the weekend of December 14-15 brought them crashing down to Earth hard because after that they were never the same. They just don't have a hockey ready program still and it's probably not going to get any better for them when the B10 establishes its hockey conference. BG won big tonight and they are a team Northern needs to get rid of. The lesser school winning an opening round and having momentum is scary. I don't care who you are. I know BG doesn't have the depth like we do but this team has some belief right now and you better believe this win launched some serious confidence in that locker room. Can't wait to get back to action next week!
Early in the season we were getting a lot of scoring from younger players and it just wasn't really a firm foundation for a good season. We started hot and then it all sort of fell apart for a while
Ohio, similarly, has freshmen as 4 of their 6 leading scorers and another is a sophomore. It seems like the bottom just sort of fell out in the end.
- In 2011, Ohio scored 3.3 goals per game and allowed 2.1 gpg
- In 2012 they scored only 1.75 gpg and started allowing 3.25 gpg
That's a huuuuuge swing. That's two different teams there. Their scoring nearly halved. I think it's a function of having a team run by freshmen / underclassmen and when the wheels fell off, they just didn't have the experience / toughness to overcome it
thanks for the analysis.
I do have a slight bias towards seeing us get the 1-seed at the XCel Center, but I do hate that it would likely entail a 2nd round matchup with the Gophers.
For those who thought Duluth had a home crowd advantage at last year's final (basis my seats / angle, I'd estimate 85-90% of fans behind them), you'll know that we do not want to face ANY MN team in a one-game playoff in this state.
Lame as it may be, I guess I'd prefer a boring couple of games with no significant home ice advantage in Green Bay followed by a couple more "boring" no-home-ice games in Tampa... and I'd hope to be at all of them, myself.
Thank you, mfan. You are a gentleman and a scholar.