Hockey PWR update (through 2/18)
After winning in OT on Senior Night for the second straight year, Michigan leapfrogged three teams into second place behind Boston College in the Pairwise rankings. They did so by improving their record against teams under consideration so that it is slightly better than Denver's, thus allowing the large advantage in RPI to give Michigan the win in that comparison. I had also expected Michigan to pull ahead of Duluth, but Wisconsin's win over Denver pulled them up to "team under consideration" status, and with Duluth's 1-0-1 record over Wisconsin, they maintain the slightest margin over Michigan in TUC record. Michigan's RPI also pulled ahead of Ferris, so Michigan wins that comparison thanks to the two head-to-head wins from early in the year.
As things stand today, I think Michigan would be the #1 seed in St. Paul, playing Cornell, with Minnesota-MSU the other regional semi. It's also possible they would go to Green Bay, still playing Cornell, with Duluth-Miami the other regional semi. Obviously, a lot will change between now and Selection Sunday, so it doesn't really matter. Next weekend, Michigan has a road series at Bowling Green, who is last in the conference but has been playing everybody tough. Denver, Duluth, and Ferris all play tournament bubble teams, which means that if they sweep, they'll all be ahead of Michigan even with a Michigan sweep. BU plays a BG-level opponent (Vermont), also on the road, and BC has a home-and-home with mediocre Providence. BU can't pull ahead of us, and BC will only drop below us with a loss. So it looks like there is a decent chance that we'll drop back down to fifth after next weekend, but any losses by the other contenders would be huge for us. Again, a lot is going to change in the next four weeks, and the conference tournaments are going to have a huge impact. Enjoy watching the scoreboard, and Go Blue!
February 19th, 2012 at 12:20 AM ^
When would this 1st round series take place?
February 19th, 2012 at 8:33 AM ^
Green Bay and Bridgeport are the 23rd and 24th. St. Paul and Worcester are the 24th and 25th.
February 19th, 2012 at 12:21 AM ^
Seriously unbelievable! And Michigan hockey deserves it! They have been the hottest team in the CCHA these two months no doubt about it!
February 19th, 2012 at 12:21 AM ^
1. Boston College (31)
2. Michigan (29)
3. Mass.-Lowell (29)
4. Ferris State (28)
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5. Minnesota-Duluth (27)
6. Boston University (26)
7. Union (25)
8. Minnesota (23)
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9. Maine (23)
10. Michigan State 22)
11. Miami (22)
12. Denver (21)
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13. Ohio State (19)
14. North Dakota (18)
15. Cornell (17)
16. Atlantic Hockey Champ
Worcester:
1. Boston College
7. Union
9. Maine
16. Atlantic Hockey Champ
St. Paul:
2. Michigan
8. Minnesota (host)
10. Michigan State
15. Cornell
Bridgeport:
3. Mass-Lowell
6. Boston University
12. Denver
13. Ohio State
Green Bay:
4. Ferris State
5. Minnesota-Duluth
11. Miami
14. North Dakota
February 19th, 2012 at 12:36 AM ^
And main!
FUCK MAINE!
WE CHEER, CHEER, CHEER
With might and main we cheer!
February 19th, 2012 at 12:52 AM ^
Did Ferris lock up the CCHA crown today? At best, we can tie them with 53 points. How does the tie-breaker work? They'd have more CCHA wins but we have the head-to-head wins
February 19th, 2012 at 1:04 AM ^
Here is how Michigan wins the CCHA.
- Michigan MUST sweep bowling green next weekend
- western MUST sweep ferris next weekend
Michigan sweeping bowling green is very likely, I expect it. western sweeping ferris is very likely also. I think it will happen.
western vs ferris next weekend is a home-and-home. western swept their home-and-home earlier in the season, winning 4-2 on the road and 3-0 at home.
I'm really hoping it can happen for the second year in a row, Michigan winning the conference title the final weekend getting a sweep with western helping us out.
February 19th, 2012 at 1:28 AM ^
So we would own the tie-breaker? We'd have the same number of points in that scenario
February 19th, 2012 at 7:41 AM ^
Michigan would own the tiebreaker with Ferris. Tiebreaker #1 is conference wins (not counting shootouts), and that would be even. Tiebreaker #2 is head-to-head, and Michigan swept Ferris in October.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:40 AM ^
I was thinking they'd have more wins because they have 2 more now but we need them to get swept so we'd both have 16. Therefore, go western!
February 19th, 2012 at 1:12 AM ^
Michigan is 0-1-0 in Bridgeport,CT. That loss was in the 2009 NCAA East Regional First Round against air force. One of the most disappointing losses ever for a loaded team like Michigan that year.
Michigan is 1-1-0 in Worcester,MA. They played there in the 1999 NCAA East Regional beating denver in the first round, 5-3. But Michigan lost to new hampshire in the Regional Final, 1-2 in OT.
Michigan is 3-4-0 in St. Paul,MN. Their most recent appearance there was the 2011 NCAA Frozen Four beating north dakota in the semifinals 2-0. I will not mention what the other game because I feel like crawling into the fetal position and crying...still....
Michigan has never played a game in Green Bay,WI. Period.
Avoid St. Paul. Please. Michigan has faced a minnesota-based school there 4 times and lost all 4.
What a bunch of bullshit. Why can't Yost host regionals anymore?
February 19th, 2012 at 8:19 AM ^
Of course, they somehow think that St. Paul is a neutral site, being so far from Minneapolis. Maybe Ypsi can host a regional, since that would apparently be a neutral site.
February 19th, 2012 at 10:15 AM ^
RIght after our game, before the other games last night, we were in the top spot in the Pairwise and the RPI. We're only one thousandth of a point behind BC in RPI, which is the difference in their PWR comparison too. So making up that 0.001 in RPI would put us back into the top spot in the Pairwise. (However, our RPI will probably take a hit next weekend even if we sweep due to a drop in strength of schedule.) The other team winning a comparison against us is Minnesota-Duluth, and we have a good chance of passing them in the TUC comparison.
We're also currently #1 in KRACH.