After winning in OT on Senior Night for the second straight year, Michigan leapfrogged three teams into second place behind Boston College in the Pairwise rankings. They did so by improving their record against teams under consideration so that it is slightly better than Denver's, thus allowing the large advantage in RPI to give Michigan the win in that comparison. I had also expected Michigan to pull ahead of Duluth, but Wisconsin's win over Denver pulled them up to "team under consideration" status, and with Duluth's 1-0-1 record over Wisconsin, they maintain the slightest margin over Michigan in TUC record. Michigan's RPI also pulled ahead of Ferris, so Michigan wins that comparison thanks to the two head-to-head wins from early in the year.
As things stand today, I think Michigan would be the #1 seed in St. Paul, playing Cornell, with Minnesota-MSU the other regional semi. It's also possible they would go to Green Bay, still playing Cornell, with Duluth-Miami the other regional semi. Obviously, a lot will change between now and Selection Sunday, so it doesn't really matter. Next weekend, Michigan has a road series at Bowling Green, who is last in the conference but has been playing everybody tough. Denver, Duluth, and Ferris all play tournament bubble teams, which means that if they sweep, they'll all be ahead of Michigan even with a Michigan sweep. BU plays a BG-level opponent (Vermont), also on the road, and BC has a home-and-home with mediocre Providence. BU can't pull ahead of us, and BC will only drop below us with a loss. So it looks like there is a decent chance that we'll drop back down to fifth after next weekend, but any losses by the other contenders would be huge for us. Again, a lot is going to change in the next four weeks, and the conference tournaments are going to have a huge impact. Enjoy watching the scoreboard, and Go Blue!