Hockey PWR update (through 2/17)

Submitted by mfan_in_ohio on

The higher ranked teams all won throughout college hockey on Friday, so there was very little change in the pairwise rankings.  Michigan still sits 5th, though no longer in a tie for that spot, and the only comparisons lost are to the same teams: Ferris, Boston College, Duluth, and Denver. 

A win tomorrow would likely vault Michigan to 1st (possibly in a tie with BC), even if all the teams ahead of us win as well.  Why?  Northern is a Team Under Consideration (TUC), so a win would improve our record there.  Denver and Duluth play much weaker teams that are not TUCs, so a Michigan win would improve the TUC record enough to win the overall comparisons against both teams.  Also, since Ferris plays a bad BG team, a win would not give much boost to their RPI, and I think Michigan should overtake them.  BC, with a win against Merrimack, should stay ahead of us in RPI and thus continue to win that comparison. 

Keep in mind, though, that over the next two weeks Michigan will probably just have two games, both against BG, so some of our competitors will probably pass us again if they keep winning.  There are a bunch of comparisons that are incredibly close (obviously, since Michigan can move up over 3 or 4 teams even if they all win). So don't get too excited if you see Michigan up at #1 in the Pairwise after the Saturday games.  The seeding is all going to come down to who wins, who loses, and even who plays whom in the conference tournaments.   

justingoblue

February 18th, 2012 at 1:35 AM ^

mfan_in_ohio, if someone put a gun to your head, what would you predict for the NCAA tounrament? Seeding/bracket wise I mean.

Also, I'm loving that we're anywhere near the top. I would have never guessed that a few months ago.

mfan_in_ohio

February 18th, 2012 at 2:19 PM ^

I would be too distracted to make college hockey predictions.  That said, I would guess that Michigan ends up with a #1 seed, but which #1 seed is a big question. The schedule is favorable, and I would not expect Michigan to have a loss at least until they get to the Joe.  Ferris, by contrast, has an excellent shot to lose next weekend against Western, so I think we'll be ahead of them entering the CCHA tournament.  At that point, the team that finishes out better will definitely stay in the West. 

If Michigan wins out, I think they'll be in Green Bay as a #1 seed, as they should pull ahead of Ferris.  A loss in the CCHA tournament could drop them to a lower #1 or a high #2, which probably puts them in Bridgeport.  I think it's one of those two.  If I had to pick one, I'll go with Green Bay. 

Bando Calrissian

February 18th, 2012 at 1:43 AM ^

Looking at USCHO tonight, the pairwise guru on the board has, through tonight, Michigan being sent off to St. Paul in a regional with both Minnesota and Duluth, as well as Ohio State.

My head explodes just reading that.  I know it's unlikely to happen given the amount of hockey left to be played, but, seriously, that would pretty much be the dong punchiest dong punch of all dong punches.

Srock

February 18th, 2012 at 9:17 AM ^

Ohio will not end up in the NCAAS unless they win the CCHA tournament. They are in a free fall.

As for the gut feeling tournament pairings. I've long beleived (even before the pairwise whcih has tried to make this process fair) that they NCAA Hockey Committee hates UM. Thus, I suspect we'll be a #2 Seed or #1 Seed in St. Paul and play Minnesota in the first round (the host) and if we win the winner of UMD vs. Michigan State. 2nd worst case - a 2 seed out east with BC as the 1 seed.

 

lhglrkwg

February 18th, 2012 at 9:57 AM ^

It still blows my mind that the CCHA is so thoroughly screwed for regionals every year. We're always one of the top 3 conferences but we rarely get a regional in Michigan where there are 8 D-1 teams (14% of all teams) plus there's ND, BGSU, and Miami. I know I'm preaching to the choir, but maybe the Xcel center doesn't need to host a BTHC tournament, regional or frozen four EVERY YEAR

Bando Calrissian

February 18th, 2012 at 10:56 AM ^

Michigan (the state) gets screwed on regionals because the Joe is off the table (lack of interest from both the NCAA and the Wings), the Palace is essentially off the table, and the NCAA isn't interested in campus sites.  Thus, for a regional in Michigan, it's going to have to be in Grand Rapids.

The situation sucks, but that's how it's going to be until the NCAA fixes its broken tournament format and/or realizes that sites hours away from every campus do not translate into non-library atmospheres.  Yet, really, they don't care, as long as there's money to be made, and no "competitive advantage" in the site choice.  Unless you're Minnesota.