While Michigan had the weekend off, a number of the games that were played have had a pretty big effect on the Pairwise rankings. Michigan is now in a 3-way tie for second with Lowell and Duluth (and leads that group by virtue of having the best RPI of the three). Here's how that happened:
Duluth only managed one point in two games against St. Cloud. This hurt their TUC record and their RPI quite a bit, though they still win the comparison (barely) against Michigan. However, they now lose comparisons to Lowell and Minnesota.
BC won both of its games and maintains a solid RPI lead over Michigan, which is probably not going to change. That won't affect where Michigan goes, as BC will most likely end up as the #1 in Worcester, but the top overall seed gets to play the Atlantic Hockey champ in the first round, so that would be nice.
BU lost to Northeastern on Saturday. While this didn't have an immediate effect (we were already winning the comparison against BU), it might help down the road. That comparison was a precarious tie: we were winning RPI, they were winning TUCs, and our record against common opponents was a tie. The loss to Northeastern broke that tie in our favor. Also, since they might play BC in the Hockey East tournament, they had the opportunity to win the comparison with a win over BC. Now, that win won't be enough; basically, unless we suffer an RPI collapse, we have the BU comparison locked up.
At this point, it looks like the top overall seed is pretty much out of reach, but a #1 seed is very likely. If things ended today, I think we'd be the top seed in St. Paul, facing Cornell, with Minnesota-Miami likely the other regional semi. We could also get sent to Green Bay, again facing Cornell, and with Ferris-Denver probably the other semi.
Next week: CCHA quarters vs. either Notre Dame or Lake Superior. Either is a TUC, and an opportunity to improve (or hurt) our pairwise resume. Go Blue!