History of Michigan Players in Rivals100

Submitted by 1464 on

I went through data from Rivals to comprise a list of recruits that have committed to Michigan from their top 100 players.  Below is the full list of 44 players.  At bottom are some tables that lend context to the data.

NAME

 POSITION STAR NATL RANK POS RANK YEAR STATE
Ryan Mallett QB ***** 4 2 2007 TX
Prescott Burgess DB ***** 6 1 2003 OH
Derrick Green (*) RB ***** 8 1 2013 VA
Chad Henne QB ***** 13 3 2004 PA
LaMarr Woodley LB ***** 14 3 2003 MI
Ondre Pipkins DT ***** 14 3 2012 MO
Brandon Graham LB ***** 15 2 2006 MI
Kevin Grady RB ***** 22 4 2005 MI
Kyle Kalis  OL ***** 22 4 2012 OH
Donovan Warren DB ***** 25 3 2007 CA
Stephen Schilling OL ***** 26 2 2006 WA
Will Campbell DT ***** 26 5 2009 MI
Gabe Watson DT ***** 33 3 2002 MI
Justin Turner DB **** 35 3 2009 OH
Marques Slocum OL **** 37 1 2005 PA
Shawn Crable DE **** 39 2 2003 OH
Carlos Brown RB **** 39 5 2006 GA
Tim Jamison DE **** 40 5 2004 IL
Darryl Stonum WR **** 41 7 2008 TX
Boubacar Cissoko DB **** 44 4 2008 MI
Jonas Mouton DB **** 45 3 2006 CA
Mario Manningham WR **** 45 5 2005 OH
Antonio Bass ATH **** 49 5 2005 MI
Dann O'Neill OL **** 49 10 2008 MI
Justin Boren OL **** 64 1 2006 OH
Henry Poggi (*) DT **** 70 5 2013 MD
Clayton Richard QB **** 71 4 2003 IN
Erik Magnuson OL **** 78 10 2012 CA
Alex Mitchell OL **** 80 3 2004 MI
Shane Morris (*) QB **** 81 4 2013 MI
Patrick Kugler OL **** 82 6 2013 PA
Cory Zirbel OL **** 83 10 2005 KY
Justice Hayes RB **** 85 3 2011 MI
Jim Presley LB **** 89 2 2003 MI
Adam Patterson DT **** 91 7 2006 SC
Toney Clemons WR **** 91 12 2007 PA
Greg Mathews WR **** 93 8 2006 FL
Matt Gutierrez QB **** 96 5 2002 CA
Ryan Mundy DB **** 96 6 2003 PA
Terrance Taylor DT **** 96 8 2005 MI
Brett Gallimore OL **** 96 10 2004 MO
James McKinney DT **** 98 9 2005 KY
Doug Dutch WR **** 98 10 2004 DC
Cullen Christian DB **** 99 8 2010 PA

* LOI yet to be signed

__________________________________________________________

 

POSITION RECRUITS
OL 10
DB 7
DT 7
QB 5
WR 5
RB 4
LB 3
DE 2
ATH 1
TOTAL 44
POSITION HIGHEST RANKED
QB 4
DB 6
RB 8
LB 14
DT 14
OL 22
DE 39
WR 41
ATH 49
HOME STATE RECRUITS
MI 13
OH 6
PA 6
CA 4
KY 2
MO 2
TX 2
DC 1
FL 1
GA 1
IL 1
IN 1
MD 1
SC 1
VA 1
WA 1
YEAR RECRUITS
2002 2
2003 6
2004 5
2005 7
2006 7
2007 3
2008 3
2009 2
2010 1
2011 1
2012 3
2013 (*) 4

 

MGoBoard
Football
Recruiting
Rivals100

1464

January 28th, 2013 at 1:12 PM ^

I decided to leave my opinion out in order to allow others to interpret.  The tables themselves contain the facts.  I killed too much office time doing this already.  My thoughts?  The number was a bit lower than I expected, especially for the top 50 or so.  Surprised we haven't really recruited a top flight WR.  A good portion of that list gave strong contributions to our team. 

I figured the dialogue in the posts might do the work of creating a conversation.

Joined: 06/21/2010

MGoPoints: 37173

triangle_M

January 28th, 2013 at 1:17 PM ^

this is kind of meta, but we should have a wiki with all of the blogs copious data in it.  I have killed my share of office time crunching numbers a few times for this blog and its a shame that these posts get buried and someone repeats that effort.  you'd think we'd have done something by now.

Joined: 03/09/2011

MGoPoints: 5648

saveferris

January 28th, 2013 at 2:44 PM ^

But what's your definition of  "top flight WR"?  Manningham was a 4 star, Top 50 player and ranked 5th at this position.  That seems pretty good to me.  Of the guys who were ranked ahead of him, I'd say only DeSean Jackson is having a bigger pro career than him, so again, pretty elite.

Now, granted, Mario is the ONLY example I can put forth....

Joined: 07/02/2009

MGoPoints: 24841

1464

January 28th, 2013 at 5:43 PM ^

There will always be the Braylon Hart caveat, but I mean a 5 star can't miss type guy.  Obviously anyone on this list can be considered top flight, just surprised we haven't nailed a top 10 type guy before, especially with the guys we have playing in the league.

Joined: 06/21/2010

MGoPoints: 37173

michgoblue

January 28th, 2013 at 1:10 PM ^

Wat are you getting at with your comment?  The guy put together some interesting info on past recruiting.  During recruiting season.  On a day where there is not a shred of new FB content around here. 

 

Joined: 11/16/2009

MGoPoints: 32134

3rdGenerationBlue

January 28th, 2013 at 1:48 PM ^

To PA Baller,

The history of the Rivals 100 players at Michigan indicates that we shouldn't expect Derrick Green to be a major contributor next year. Few freshman players start and fewer make a big impact.

 

Thanks for asking,

3GB

Joined: 08/11/2009

MGoPoints: 1209

Bryan

January 28th, 2013 at 1:09 PM ^

How did he not pan out?
 
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i got a fuck lion now come fuck wit me 
 
Who do you admire most? 
My mom CARLA, dat bitch da shit, i love her i think she da realest bitch alive 
 
When do you plan on getting married? 
it dont matta cuz i hope my wife know ima be playa 4 life

Joined: 07/10/2009

MGoPoints: 14777

1464

January 28th, 2013 at 1:21 PM ^

Looking over the top 10 players on the list, Grady is the only one that didn't really pan out.  Mallett may not have played for us, but he was pretty good.  That bodes well for Green, Kalis, and Pipkins.

Joined: 06/21/2010

MGoPoints: 37173

WolvinLA2

January 28th, 2013 at 3:31 PM ^

Well, 2002-2004 guys wouldn't be there anymore, but take a look at the 2005 and 2006 classes and see how many either underachieved greatly or never did anything. Grady, Boren, Zirbel, Bass, McKinney, Slocum, etc. Plus you have Manningham who went pro early and Mallett who transferred, and guys like Mouton and Carlos Brown who didn't play like top prospects. So our top-100 contingent was pretty empty, yes. EDIT: include Adam Patterson in one of those groups too. That's 10 of the 14 top-100 recruits in '05 and '06.

Joined: 11/13/2009

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Jehu the Damaja

January 28th, 2013 at 1:38 PM ^

If all these guys sign, we'll have 8 of the 44 on our team next year. Major props to Hoke and co. for pulling in some stellar classes their first 2 years. This team is going to be fun to watch as long as Hoke is around, so watch the fuck out B1G

Joined: 02/03/2010

MGoPoints: 6970

Johnny Blood

January 28th, 2013 at 2:04 PM ^

Could you imagine getting 4 or 5 guys like this a year like USC / Alabama do with regularity?  I think we're getting there though... definitely headed in the right direction.

Joined: 12/22/2010

MGoPoints: 4285

nmumike

January 28th, 2013 at 2:10 PM ^

Doug Dutch! This from Wiki

Dutch attended The University of Michigan from 2004-2008. He started out his collegiate football career as a wide receiver wearing the number 81. He redshirted his freshman year. During his sophomore year he saw limited time as a reserve wide receiver and punt returner, catching 4 passes for 34 yards and returning 2 punts for 9 yards. Before his senior season he converted to cornerback and switched to number 35. He saw limited time on special teams and recorded one tackle. Dutch was again a reserve defensive back and special teamer during his final year of eligibility in 2008.

Joined: 10/28/2010

MGoPoints: 4617

StephenRKass

January 28th, 2013 at 2:47 PM ^

I appreciate your compilation of data. It is very helpful to see.

Two observations:

  1. I concur with the note that our WR recruiting hasn't been outstanding. We have a great class, but it really is too bad that Treadwell went elsewhere.
  2. It is good to see the numbers over the last 12 years. Specifically, to see there was a time when having 5 - 7 in the Rivals 100 was common and expected. Thankfully, we're heading in that direction.

Joined: 07/15/2008

MGoPoints: 22961

Ron Utah

January 28th, 2013 at 4:46 PM ^

In an effort to give a little life to this data, I have attempted to score each of the above prospects into three highly subjective categories:

  1. Bust.  Did not meet expectations or produce (for whatever reason).
  2. Role Player.  Decent career; some issue kept him from being great.
  3. Impact Player.  Consistent game-changing plays.

For the young guys who may not have had time to fall into a category, we'll just remove them from the data.

Here goes:

BUSTS:

  • Ryan Mallett (not his fault)
  • Kevin Grady
  • Will Campbell (one above average season is below expectations)
  • Justin Turner
  • Marques Slocum
  • Carlos Brown
  • Boubacar Cissoko
  • Antonio Bass
  • Dann O'Neill
  • Justin Boren
  • Clayton Richard
  • Alex Mitchell
  • Cory Zirbel
  • Jim Presley
  • Adam Patterson
  • Toney Clemons
  • Matt Gutierrez
  • Ryan Mundy
  • Brett Gallimore
  • James McKinney
  • Doug Dutch
  • Cullen Christian

Total: 22

ROLE PLAYERS:

  • Prescott Burgess
  • Tim Jamison
  • Daryl Stonum
  • Greg Mathews
  • Terrance Taylor

Total: 5

IMPACT PLAYERS:

  • Chad Henne
  • LaMarr Woodley
  • Brandon Graham
  • Donovan Warren
  • Stephen Schilling
  • Gabe Watson
  • Shawn Crable
  • Jonas Mouton
  • Mario Manningham

Total: 9

So of the 36 players examined using my completely BS opinion, I have 22 (61%) busts, 5 (14%) role players, and 9 (25%) impact players.  So about 1 in 4 of these players were very good or great, about 2 in 5 were contributors, and the other three either got injured, transferred, or just weren't very good at football in college.

Patterns worth noting:

  • The bottom seven ranked players were all busts.
  • Of the ten highest-ranked players, three were busts, one was a role player, and the other six were impact players
  • The eight unranked players (not enough data yet) are Derrick Green, Ondre Pipkins, Kyle Kalis, Henry Poggi, Erik Magnuson, Shane Morris, Patrick Kugler, and Justice Hayes.
  • Three of those unranked players (Green, Pipkins, and Kalis) would have been in the top ten.

Joined: 02/28/2012

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Ron Utah

January 28th, 2013 at 8:01 PM ^

Yes, and it's not even close.  Mouton's stats and honors:

124 solo; 140 ast; 264 tot; 18 tfl; 3.0 sk; 4 INT; 9 PD; 2 FF.  Jonas Mouton almost single-handedlly defended our opponents in 2010, racking-up 117 tackles with 8.5 for loss, 2.0 sacks, and two picks.  He made 13 tackles and a game-changing INT against Notre Dame, giving us a chance in another miracle win over the Irish.  He was one of 51 players on the Butkus watch list.  He led the conference in tackles, and was second team all-B1G.  Anyone who watched games in 2010 knows that without him, we have another losing season.  He had 5 double-digit tackle games in 2010, and 9 in his career.

Burgess' stats and honors:

80 solo; 49 ast; 129 tot; 10.5 tfl; 3.0 sk; 2 INT; 12 PD; 2 FF.  Burgess had double-digit tackles in only two games in his career, both in 2005.  He was an honorable mention All-B1G in 2005 and 2006, but never really an impact player.  His best season was his 81 tackle junior campaign.

You could argue that Burgess was an impact player; I would respectfully disagree.  But I don't see how anyone can argue that Mouton wasn't an impact player.  He was one of the best defenders in the conference and ranked 17th nationally in tackles his senior year.

Joined: 02/28/2012

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WolvinLA2

January 28th, 2013 at 8:27 PM ^

I also disagree that Mouton was a better player than Burgess.  I would take Burgess over Mouton any day.  I would also take Terrence Taylor over Mouton, and I think Mouton and Tim Jamison are about a wash.  Based on how you ranked everyone else, I'd put Mouton in your role players category.

Joined: 11/13/2009

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Ron Utah

January 29th, 2013 at 10:19 AM ^

Talent is not the question here.  The issue is: how did these players impact the game?  Without a doubt, of the players you mention, Mouton had a greater impact on Michigan's record than the other guys.

You can make all sorts of points about circumstances, coaching, and the supporting cast, but there is no doubt--based on the stats and the eye test--that Mouton had a greater impact on our record than those other guys.

I know not everyone liked Mouton, but he was 2nd team All-B1G, put up amazing numbers, and sometimes seemed to be the only one playing defense during the GERG era.

Joined: 02/28/2012

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1464

January 28th, 2013 at 5:49 PM ^

Depends on your definition of a bust.  I wouldn't even factor in a guy like Bass, or transfers like Mallett, Boren, or Mundy.  However, your point could be argued as well.  Talent wise, I think at least half of this list was a decent player somewhere.

Joined: 06/21/2010

MGoPoints: 37173

5th and Long

January 28th, 2013 at 5:18 PM ^

 

So there's a couple ways to look at this.  There are 44 recruits in the top 100 over the past 12 years (2002-2013)  [assuming pledges for '13 class listed here]

 

12 Year Average = 3.67 Top100 recruits/year

UM 2012 Class = 4

UM 2013 Class = 4

So Hoke and Co ahead in their recruiting based on historical averages

 

BUT

if you take out the RR years 2009, 2010 (since '08 and '11 were split classes) in which we only have 3 total Top100 recruits then the averages change a bit.

41 Total Top100 Recruits over 10 years = 4.1 / season.

then Hoke & Co are about par for the course

 

BUT

If you look at two classes combined '12/'13 doesn't measure up to some of the Carr classes

2003-2004 had 11

2005-2006 had 13

Joined: 09/04/2012

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Glock_Rivers

January 29th, 2013 at 3:24 AM ^

2006 team had 20 guys who were at one point or another on an NFL roster. Kind of gives you an idea of how disappointed we should have been with not winning a single Rose Bowl in those years.

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