Magnus has a nice rundown of the #1 tailback recruits (as per rivals) since 2002. He concludes that Derrick Green is most likely to fit the Beanie Wells mold. I'll take that!
A History of #1 Tailbacks (via touchthebanner)
I don't care what anyone else says, Im waiting for Fred Jackson to give me his level headed take on Derrick Green
click "nice rundown" in the OP
Apparently it did happen then.
He is like a bulldozer, but faster.
Bigger than Brandon Jacobs.
Stronger than Trent Richardson, faster than Denard, more shifty than Barry Sanders. There's your answer.
Or was it stronger than Morgan Trent and faster than Dan O'Neil?
He's like Bo Jackson, but able to play more sports.
It's too hard to predict. Green is coming in with the #1 OL class in the country, how does that impact his success? What about having Hoke vs. another coach?
I think since most UM linemen redshirt, the OL class this year is less relevant this year and next than the upperclassmen and last year's OL recruits.
OK, but before this class happened, we were drooling over our 2012 OL haul, and a couple of the sites said it was the second best OL class behind only Stanford's (whose class was pretty ridiculous).
Too Soon... Garnett.. Too soon.
He's going to have a monster 2013.
Too bad he's a one-and-doner.
Except 1 and done is impossible in college football (unless he took two years off after high school before starting)
FWIW, Derrick Green has stated that he promised his mother he'd get his degree and that academics were of utmost importance. Too early to say for sure, but going on what I know, we are truly blessed to have Green. Looking forward to Michigan althletics for years to come.
It probably doesn't impact his success for a couple of years. Hopefully, by the time those guys are starting, Green will be in his Jr. year.
For the most part, it seems to be a case of "hit or miss," with more of the #1 backs hitting than missing. I think Beanie Wells is a very good comparison here. If Green's skills translate fully to the college level, I think he could remind us of Chris Perry with an "extra step" of speed.
I was surprised to see there isn't really a bust on that whole list. I guess Scott is the closest, but he had a decent season at USF (2nd team all-Big East) before stupidly going pro early.
Knock on wood and everything, but that list is pretty damn encouraging, especially if Green can share the load with Fitz, Smith, etc. over the next few years.
What are you talking about?
He may be referring to Vincent and not Deveon
Forgot about Deveon. Sorry about that. Both should be good behind this line we are building.
I think he was a college bust, by anybody's definition. And if his fumble woes continue in the NFL, he likely won't last long there either.
Bryce Brown single-handidly won 2 Fantasy Football games for me this year FWIW.
I'd personally like a Trent Richardson mold, but since that man is a once in a generation combination of elite athleticism, great speed, and absolute brute, punishing strength, I'd take the fit of a Beanie Wells mold as well.
I think there's some truth to that. They only have so many scholarships and are still facing a minor scholarship reduction due to sanctions. Not that they didn't want him, but they got a big back last year (Dunn), and they don't need as many big backs as they used to. They also have a prototypical spread back committed (Elliot). They just had other needs that needed to be addressed. Kind of how we stopped recruiting Pocic. We definitely wanted him, but we took other guys we liked and then had other needs that needed to be addressed. Doesn't mean he was all of a sudden evaluated as a bad player, or that the coaches 'passed' on him.
I know that most of them only played three years, but I was surprised to see that Mike Hart matches up pretty darn well with these guys. Really, only Peterson and Bush would have passed Hart in their senior seasons unless a couple of the other guys went off. Just makes you really appreciate what he did even more as 3 star guy out of a small HS.
Hopefully Green reminds us all what it's like to have that great overall back. As much as I like the Beanie Wells comparison, is there a Michigan back he is similar to? A-Train, but fast? Perry, but plays all four years like Perry's senior year?
A-Train was fast, so the comparison should probably just be "A-Train." And we don't know how long it will take Green to produce in college, so predicting he'll have four years like Perry's senior season is going waaaay too far. Perry was the Doak winner his senior year, so if Green has one year like Perry's senior year, I'll be thrilled.
If you look at Anthony Thomas's numbers, I think you'll be surprised at the number of big plays he had. He was big and he was no Chris Johnson, but he had pretty darn good speed.
I wish they would change it to "Get off my lawn!"
Very nice rundown by Magnus. And very encouraging.
Something with substance that isn't all opinion?? Ttb is movin on up.
That the jersey number 27 at Michigan is relatively short on recent memorable players: Brandon Harrison, vada Murray and current cass tech pipeline faucet Thomas wilcher.
Assuming he gets it.
Don Moorhead played lights-out in the '69 OSU game. He did not just "manage" the game. He had a TD pass at the goal line, a rarity in Bo's early days, called back on a penalty.
King was a DB from '92-'96 which were some pretty talented defenses.
Very informative breakdown, and thanks for sharing this.
I found it interesting that the averages calculated, if Green met that benchmark, would already put him in some decently rarified air in a few categories as it is. That gives me some reason to be even more excited than I already was actually. Indeed, it really would not take much more in the way of average production - if Green hangs around all four years - to make him consistently Top 15 among Michigan RBs in each category. It comes out to about 18 more carries a year and only about 30 or so more yards with one extra TD per year and he's #15 for those categories potentially. It is very exciting to think about the possibilities here as other pieces of the offense fall into place as well.
Magnus' breackdown. It was MGoBlog Diary worthy. What I want to know is the following:
Magus, can you comment on his balance, vision, yac, making the first guy miss, breaking tackles?
What would you say he needs to add to his game to make him a complete running back?
His balance has improved since his junior year, and I think he's learned to make people miss a little bit more. There are times in his junior film where he just runs straight ahead into guys, when there are clearly alleys to run to avoid contact. I think he's shifty enough to make defensive linemen miss, and he can make second-level defenders miss ENOUGH to break their tackles. He won't leave people flailing at air, but he can force them into arm tackles that won't do much good against a guy who's so powerfully built.
I don't really know how good of a blocker Green is, since that type of thing isn't shown on film much. He does need to get better at catching the ball out of the backfield. I also think he needs to run more powerfully; sometimes he slows down for contact rather than lowering his shoulders and running through guys at full speed. He doesn't break as many tackles as he should for someone his size, but he's still better than the vast majority of high school backs.
I'm just as excited about Derrick Green as the next guy, but I don't think there is a meaningful talent gap between him and Deveon Smith. I'm no high falutin' football tape analyzin' dude, but I have a really hard time comparing tape from the two backs and definitively concluding that Green is by far the better back, as most scouts have. I know Green supposedly has another gear, but to me they both look like power backs that lack a little bit of extra oomf to outrun people in the secondary. I really think both will see extended playing time, and it will be nice to be able to bring the thunder and then counter-balance that with... more, less tired thunder.
Looking at the highlight tapes for both of them, I would've believed that this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLMuUkyRz44 was Darrick Green, too. The tape that I see here seems to suggest that Smith is actually the slightly better lateral back, which is a valuable skill to have; Green doesn't seem to do much more than run straight ahead, through people using his incredible streangth (note: novice film study in the previous paragraph).
I wouldn't be surprised to see Smith win the starting job over Green, or Green over Smith. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a season where the two of them rushed for a thousand yards each. Having two top-flight backs like this in our system is a huge boon, and should be a topic of great joy. Two guys who can work against each other to get better every year is hopefully just what the doctor ordered for some manball.
Dang it nurse, I need 2 RBs of Manball. Stat!!
I think Gorgeous can find a way to get them both on the field
Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams part deux? I'll take it.
I recall reading that scouts use level of competition when comparing running backs. Side by side video may give accurate comparison. Similarly, awesome MAC talent doesn't always pan out in the NFL.
I think it's important to judge running backs by the guys he's juking, outrunning, trucking, etc. There are a lot of FBS athletes who could be outstanding high school running backs against poor/mediocre competition. You could toss Jake Ryan out there for a small school and I bet he would gain a lot of yards at running back, but that doesn't mean he could play running back at Michigan.
Olandis Gary belongs in the Hall of Fame!
was just discussed on sports center!!
I generally like your unbiased evaluations.
I've always liked Green (though I don't have any of your experience to evaluate talent) and I couldn't help but notice that you were consistantly unimpressed by Green and never hesitated to state it over the last year.
Your new post suggests he's the next Beenie Wells...though it's a comparison of top rivals RBs and not necessarily your own opinion. So what's changed? Were you wrong? Has he just shown that much more potential in his second year? Or do you still think he doesn't add much different from Smith?
I've mentioned elsewhere (in other threads) and on my commitment post that I think Green has improved significantly since his junior year. He got taken down WAY too easily in his junior year, and he also rarely broke big runs. He just got yards in chunks. That changed during his senior season, when he started to break more tackles and actually showed some breakaway ability. He was 268 lbs. as a freshman, and I think he's been getting in better and better shape since that time. Not only does he have additional experience, but I just think the "fat kid" in him has been whittled away.
As for the post that's linked at the top of this thread, it's more of a comparison to the other #1 rated backs. I was just trying to find the closest comparison within that short list of guys, and Wells seems to be the best fit.
Yeah, I guess I should have put an asterisk next to that one...
While the average there is 429 carries, 2,442 yards, and 22 TD...if you also take out the two who transferred (since, let's be honest, if Green transfers for some reason most of us won't care about his career numbers other than to grot our teeth) the numbers are even better. They go up to 500 carries, 2,893 yards, and 27 TD.
I think the comparisons to Beanie Wells are spot on. The two are closer in size out of high school than anyone else on that list. Wells had a one inch and eight pound advantage. The next closest in terms of size would be Stewart, who was 2 inches shorter but 4 lbs heavier.
Oddly enough, if you look at Stewart's career numbers and the new averages I posted, they are almost exactly the same.
Stewart - 516 carries, 2891 yds, 27 TD
New ave - 500 carries, 2893 yds, 27 TD
And there you have it.
If Green stays at Michigan for only three years, that would be about 964 yards per season. Depending on how quickly Toussaint recovers, Green could be a three-year starter. That 2,893-yard threshold shouldn't be too difficult to surpass *if* he gets a lot of playing time as a freshman.