5. Virginia Tech
4. IOWA (Really?)
I didn't realize that Iowa has that much coming back for next year. If this holds form, Homecoming could be a long day.
Iowa is actually a pretty good team, but the fact that Herbie picks them as top 5 does not make me any more or less scared of that game. Herbie's prediction percentage is not exactly stellar. Now, if Brian put Iowa in HIS top 5, I might be concerned.
Ohio State at #2 = FAIL.
I was sincerely hoping he meant Oregon State...
Like it or not, Pryor is shaping up to be a real beast next year. Combine that with the fact that their defense always seems to reload, and they should be set up for another good year.
That doesn't make up for the fact that they have the potential to lose a TON of talent on defense. Pryor still has to prove he can throw the ball too. These factors would definitely leave them out of the top 10.
You're nuts if you think OSU doesn't finish in the top 10.
T. Pryor 23/37 266yds 7.2avg 2TD 1INT
That's not a mind-blowing game, but it's good when he can also do this:
T. Pryor 20att 72yds 3.6avg 0TD 24 Long
He might not be the best player to ever play, but he's good and getting better.
I don't know that they'll end up in the top five, but they certainly have the potential at this point to be there.
The fact that you cited a single, "not a mind-blowing game" against a questionable defense as your support is proof indeed that Pryor needs serious improvement in his passing skills. It demonstrates improvement, sure, but hardly justifies a conclusion that he can pass effectively on a level that justifies a #2 ranking.
I could just as easily cite his passing statistics against Michigan (hardly an imposing defense last year) and conclude that Pryor is a terrible passer relative to other quarterbacks.
The national champion this year was quarterbacked by Greg freaking McElroy. I think you're being a little too harsh on Pryor's ability to lead a top 5 team next year.
Dont they always lose tons of talent on D? They just reload. They will be a top 5 pre-son easy. Wake up.
Ohio State has been losing tons of talent on defense every year since 1862.
Pryor only has to be an average passer to be an outstanding threat next year. Anyone who watched the Rose Bowl saw him turn sacks into 10 yard gains several times with those nasty stiff arms and his impressive speed. Also, he doesn't have to be as good of a passer if people are always worried about him running. Receivers will be more open.
Iowa is not that good. VT isn't either they are losing 8 guys off their d. A lot of teams have a lot of question marks coming into next season..Florida for one. USC should be ranked ahead of both these teams.
I think I've picked Virginia Tech to finish in the top 5 for the past eight years
NOT THIS TIME
Why is OU in the top 5? Landry Jones will be a good QB at some point but right now they can't score enough to win in the offense minded Big 12. Seriously I would put Boise State there because they return 19 of 22 starters.
Hard to argue with a record of 93-11 over the past 8 seasons. No one wants to see Boise State run the table and sit at 12-0 and #1 in the nation. Sorry, that scares people.
Preseason poll with Boise State top 5 is a long shot!
93 against primarily WAC competition, man New Mexico State is a powerhouse. Boise plays Va. Tech, let's see how they do. And for scaring people? No, we are not scared of them. A great number of us wanted to play them next year for the opener.
They've beaten Oklahoma, Oregon State (twice), TCU (twice), Oregon (twice), Fresno State (four times), Utah and BYU (twice).
If you discount the pretty middling Fresno State teams, that is 11 out of 93. They are a good team, but since they play roughly 1/9 games against vastly inferior competition consider me not impressed.
Boise would have rolled Michigan this year and would beat them next year, on any field.
Tate (or DRob) would have been picked at least three times by that secondary and there is now way in hell anybody on our could cover Austin Pettis and Titus Young. And, thats just off the top of my head.
I wanted to see Boise play in the opener, too. Think it would have been awesome. But, I also would have bet against Michigan in a heart beat.
Boise isnt going anywhere. They are a legit. 2 BCS bowl wins. Annual and regular wins over both Oregon schools from the Pac 10. Bitch slapping a Fresno team every freaking year that makes news themselves by upsetting BCS teams every year.
I agree the WAC doesnt help them. And, even though I think they can compete, I dont feel we should put them in the title game based on a singular win. But, you know what, the BCS math will continue to work against them as a result. I am fine with that.
Until teams sack up and are willing to schedule them they are stuck. If we're lucky, we'll see them get 'promoted' into a better league at some point.
Last June, I urged anybody who was up for it to bet me on the Boise/Oregon, and I go no takers.
I offer the same for the Va Tech game to open the season.
And, even though I think they can compete, I dont feel we should put them in the title game based on a singular win. But, you know what, the BCS math will continue to work against them as a result. I am fine with that.
That is my sentiment exactly. Boise State, however good they may be, does not play top competition and therefore is penalized for it. It's kind of like basketball where a really good mid-major inexplicably loses in the conference tournament. They may be a great team as evidenced by wins against good programs, but the overall strength of competition dooms them from getting into the Tournament.
And for all the people that rail against the BCS for having their pre-conceived notions before actually judging the teams subjectively, your example of Boise State is invalid beceause they are such a chic choice now. Their schedule obviously inhibits them to the point that they cannot make the national title, but that the media has a grudge or is biased against them is absurd. For the "little guy", Boise State has sure turned into college football royalty in the minds of the pollsters (thank goodness they are cognizant of Boise State's schedule.)
The problem is, they cant do anything about their schedule. Nobody will play them and they cant snap their fingers and change conferences.
If they run the table next season, which would include an OOC slate of Wyoming (bowl winner with 18 starters back), at Oregon State and nuetral site vs Va Tech, I have no trouble with them playing in the BCS Title. It will be compelling to see the math as the season goes on if they're undefeated, just to see how close that OOC slate--which is much tougher than what they did this year--closes the BCS gap.
Back in 2005, they had the perfect slate to make a natty title run. First two games: at UGA (who eventually was the SEC Champ that year) and at Oregon State. But, they got blown out by UGA and lost to OSU in the closing minute. They won the rest. But, 2010 Boise is a deeper, faster, more legit nationally program than they were 5 years ago. I'll let who they have beaten in that stretch when they were given a chance speak for itself. Its like silence.
I think they are legit top-5 team in the nation heading into 2010. It will be interesting to see if they get by that OOC slate without a scratch and, if so, where the math stands to get them in the top-2.
Also, Boise is not a chic thing. They aint going anywhere. They have been doing this for a decade now. And only getting better, which I think is obvious.
Honsetly, I wouldnt mind seeing the NCAA somehow step in a create/force/whatever semantics you want to us to give Boise on axtra big time game a year. Like, if you finished last in the WAC you will be replaced or something the next year on the slate so Boise can play a team from the Big 10, Big 12, whatever. Obvs, the logistics are awful there, but something needs to be done.
Bottomline, I think this program is a whole lot better then people still will give it credit for. I just want to see Boise play the big boys. somehow, someway.
Society was dealt a rather unfortunate blow when the BCS Grand Poobahs neglected to recognize the instructional value of BCS games pitting Boise and TCU against more traditional BCS teams. Yes, Boise v. Oklahoma provided a hint. But, dad gummit, we missed a chance to put this all to rest by simply having a Boise play Florida let's say, and TCU maybe an Arkansas, or whomever...fill in the blank. Really, what did we learn from the TCU v. Boise game other than....we still harbor questions about how good they really are when compared to other major conferences. Let the boys play!
You shouldn't have a doubt about their quality. TCU won a conference that:
- Has BYU, who won at Oklahoma and beat the shit out of Oregon State.
- Has Utah, who lost @Oregon in the final seconds, and demolished Cal.
- Has Air Force, who owns the best passing defense in the nation, and slaughtered nationally ranked Houston
TCU also won @Clemson, a nationally ranked team.
The MWC is GOOD. And Boise St. beat their best team.
they can't score enough to win in the offense minded Big 12
Texas - 16
Oklahoma - 27
Oklahoma State - 0
Texas - 13
Nebraska - 12
The Big Twelve can play defense like anyone else, the "Big Twelve has all offense and no defense" meme is as stupid as "The Big Ten is all too slow". Come on, you're better than that.
For what it's worth, I do think that the Texas-Oklahoma-Nebraska triumvirate will be the most compelling conference race in CFB. I think Nebraska will ultimately win the confernce, but those three defenses are/will be fantastic.
I think Penn State should be in there. They play at Alabama in week 2. The winner of that will propel themselves into the title hunt
Penn State w/ Newsome starting his 2nd game ever? Don't think so.
Why do you say that, the brand new QB worked really well for Texas last night...
are you aware they lose their starting qb and a majority of their impact players on defense. i don't even think you can put them in the top half of the big ten right now for next yr (behind osu, wisc, iowa, msu, and UM!)
I'm interested to see who Oklahoma loses to the draft. They could lose quite a bit or be ridiculously good next year.
I think Alabama is the only one of those teams that legitimately deserves to be on that list.
A lot of things came together for Iowa to get where they did. Are they a really good team? Yes. Are they top 5? I would say no.
among others. I think top 5 is too high, top 10 might even be.
Anyone for Boise like me? I know they aren't in a tough conference but they return 21 (!!!!) starters off of this years team. They are probably a good #5.
Won't happen. Ever. That's the type of thing that would actually get them into the title game if they were to go undefeated.
Boise probably will be a preseason Top 5 in the mainstream polls. They lose one starter off of a 14-0 team.
Howeva, they will have to prove their worth with early trips to Oregon State and a "neutral site" game in Washington DC against Virginia Tech. Same as every year, if they win their first four games, they are probably unbeaten until bowl season.
Still a lot more balanced than Lou Holtzah's Top 5:
4. NC State
2. South Carolina
1. Notre Dame
1. Notre Dame
2. Notre Dame
3. Notre Dame
4. Notre Dame
5. Notre Dame
...William & Mary #1 in FCS.
Penn st behind osu since when are we giving our little brother so much hype it is msu. they are going to fall hard stop giving msu so much credit.
These question marks mean that I don't know what you are talking about.
Why don't you just sit this one out... There's an electrical closet with your name on it.
No offense my friend, but what the hell did you just say?
Seriously, I don't understand what you have written in your post.
Allow me to translate:
Penn State behind OSU. Since when are we giving our little brother so much hype? It's MSU!! They are going to fall hard, stop giving MSU so much credit.
Still not sure who was giving MSU credit. Any ideas? Typically, when commenting on another person's post, we hit the reply button on that post.
I think Iowa will be solid but honestly, I think Wisconsin will be better in the Big Ten.
Big Ten Top 5:
1.) Ohio State
5.) Penn State
...but we're coming off a 5-7 season, our defense could be even worse next year, and we have just one road win in the last two years. So with five road games (ND, PSU, IU, Purdue, and OSU) and home games against Herbie's top-5 Iowa and four other bowl teams (UConn, BGSU, MSU, and Wisconsin), I suspect a 4th place finish is a bit high.
But you now what? I'll give you much props if you're right.
I think that the most suprising team in herbies list is Virginia Tech. Also the fact that there is only one SEC team, not because they deserve it but because everyone is balls deep with the SEC
VT loses six defensive starters next year...if that's not a recipe for Not Top 5 I don't know what is. Early bet is they finish third in their division behind GT and Miami.
But, not crazy high. Last year pre-season a lot of people had MSU in their top 25 w/no Iowa...ummm, mistake. Iowa, isn't going to win a lot of style points and that hurts them with some people. But take a look at who they have coming back.
Potentially 9 returning starters on a defense(waiting on first team All-Conference CB Amari Spievey's NFL decision)including the entire DL that might have played as well at the end of the season as any in the nation. They finished 9th in the country in scoring defense. They return first All-Conference players on defense in first team DE, Adrian Clayborn(who had an incredible last half of the season.), All-American S Tyler Sash(led the conference in int's this year), Second-Team All Conference DT Karl Klug, and honorable mention All-Conference players in S Greenwood, DE Binns, and DT Ballard(moved from DE, this was his first year of playing DT in his life).
Maybe, more importantly than any one player they bring back DC Norm Parker, who's been a finalist for the nation's top assistant award several years, and has outperformed Michigan's defense far more often than not regardless of his charges star rankings. Maybe, the most underrated assistant in the conference, although he continues to get more publicity, and it's hard to label him as underrated given how often he get's mentioned for national awards.
Two big losses on the defense are All-American MLB Pat Angerer and All-Conference OLB AJ Edds. The good news for Iowa fans is that in the one game w/out Edds fill-in junior Troy Johnson had 11 tackles, a sack, a caused fumble and it's recovery and won the Award for Big Ten defensive player of the week in the process. The other expected replacement at LB will be between special teams demons, Bruce Davis and Tyler Nielsen. So, don't expect a big dropoff at LB for Iowa.
Overall, this defense looks like potentially the conference's best, and another nationally top 10 ranked defense.
The big question mark for Iowa next year is the OL. They lose a bunch of top quality players. The winner of the conference's best OL went to OT Bulaga and he's entering the NFL draft. They lose OG Dace Richardson, who was a second team All-American, and they lose second team All-Conference OT, Kyle Calloway.
The good thing is that few teams in college football develop OL like the coaches at Iowa do. Ferentz's OL are highly prized by the NFL for a reason. He was Belichick's OL coach, and his OL are very physical, and extremely fundmentally sound. A name to remember is redshirt frosh OT Riley Reiff, who Ferentz says played the as well as anyone on the OL this year. The next future first round Iowa OL. With only two returning starters on the OL, Iowa's going to have a serious rebuilding project there and while they'll have the bodies and great OL coaching they're going to have some early learning bumps and bruises there.
The rest of the offense should be stronger. They return, of course, Stanzi the Manzi. He of 15 picks, and multiple terrific comebacks. Can he possibly throw 15 picks next year? If nothing else he has some serious competition in redshirt frosh, James Vandenberg, a smart, strong arm kid who had a great game playing in the 'shoe against the Buckeyes in front of National TV lights. He struggled against NU and Minny. So, not ready to start this year, but Stanzi won't be able to just go through the motions and win the starting job.
The WR and RB units should be as deep as any time under Ferentz. Two freshman(Adam Robinson, had the most rushing yards of any forsh in program history. The other TB, has three 100 yard plus running games.) made the vast bulk of the carries for Iowa this season. The top RB, Jewel Hampton, had a season ending injury in fall practices. He's practicing and running at full-speed now, and could have played in the bowl game but, was redshirted. His backup was also out all year with injuries. They're both expected back, and they add a power back, a four star TB(Marcus Coker), they believe is the next Shonn Greene. So, they'll have good depth at TB.
Their WR group is deep, with big contributors at evey WR spot including the starting WR's in the Orange Bowl. DJK, is their best WR and the speed WR. A former UM recruit, he made second team All-Conference this year. They also get back Marvin McNutt, as wily, and big(6'4 215) former QB, who became a very dependable WR who made last minute two game winning TD's this year. The get Colin Sandeman, who replaced DJK after his injury in the Orange Bowl and became the go-to-guy at WR. A name to remember could be Keenan Davis(a former four star who had a USC offer), a freshman this year, who contributed but just scratched the surface of his ability. A big WR with good speed that they think is going to be a future star.
An easier schedule is on the horizon this year. They get the other serious preseason Big Ten title contenders UW, OSU, MSU, and PSU all at home. The big away games are at Arizona and UM.
So, while there's some question marks on this team there's a good deal of talent most notably on defense, and as Iowa overacheiving goes better than average skill position talent.
Maybe not top 5 but, a team very capable of again finishing in the bottom half of the top 10.
I dont get all the Iowa doubting in this thread. Good analysis.
Nobody in the Big 10, or anybody on their schedule for that matter, has been able to block this defensive line in 2 seasons. Why would people think that will change.
This team is going to continue to win, win, and win some more.
I think the Big 10 is a three-team race: Iowa, OSU and Wisco and I make Iowa the favorite since both those teams come to Kinnik Stadium.
Like I said in my post down thread, I will continue to bet, and win, on Iowa. Let these guys continue to doubt away,
iowa other than bulaga, angerer, moeaki returns just about everybody. they'll most likely not lose their top 3 tailbacks to injury, they have stanzi, mcnutt, johnston-koulianos all coming back. that defense returns enough starters like clayborn to remain one of the best in the country. how is that a terrible pick at #4?
I would have placed oregon instead of VT - most of that team returns.
and what's wrong with OSU at #2? almost the entire offense, defense (minus kurt coleman) returns coming off a demon-exorcising win over oregon in the rose bowl.
boise state has oregon state and VT on their schedule. if they win out they might (undeservedly) get into the title game with help
I just can't bring myself to think of Stanzi's returning as such a great thing for the Hawkeyes.
Wisconsin will win the Big Ten next year. Not Ohio State, not Iowa, but Wisconsin. They get the Buckeyes at home and return everybody from last year. Iowa loses a lot of talent but still will be BCS caliber.
I have been listening to you all rag on Iowa for two years since this became an open forum.
I'm going to keep betting, and winning, on them.
They are surely a top-10 team and with home games against PSU, Wisco, MSU and OSU, its not a big leap to put them in a preseason top-5 with all their tough games at home. They do play at Arizona, at NW, at UM and at Minny, but those are all easier games--maybe not AU--then their home games.
No obvious road traps, all their showdowns at home. Tons of talent coming back from a BCS Bowl winner. Come on, people.
And, as for the Stanzi ragging, he has a pretty good winning percentage as a starting QB. Ridiculous to even claim that him coming back isnt a strength.
I sometimes wonder if you guys are watching the same sport I am.
I absolutely agree. Looking back, had Iowa not lost Stanzi in their game against NU (which obviously freaked them out and gave 'em their first loss), it could very easily have been them going to the Rose Bowl instead of OSU. Stanzi, despite his picksixiosity, led his team to a great win over G Tech.... after not playing since November 7th (just shy of two months!).
3) Boise State
It will be interesting to see if Boise can be the first non-BCS team to make the championship. They have a lot of returning talent.
Dudes - Iowa will have some LB's and some OL to replace - that's about it. All their important offensive skill guys come back, their entire DL, and their entire defensive secondary come back.
I don't care how many players OSU loses on D - when was the last time they weren't a national top-20 defense? 1972? They have talent crapping out of their mouths - we have walk-ons.
no reason to believe that iowa wont be that good. nice to see two big10 teams in anyones top 5.