Heated Discussion on the home front: Michigan Big Ten favorite in 2011-12??

Submitted by coastal blue on

Roommates and I are in the middle of an volatile debate over next year's BT favorite. My position is, assuming Sullinger goes pro, it has to be the Wolverines. Nearly everyone else loses key contributors to star players. We lose no one and only gain experience. We'll be more experienced and deeper next season.

The only competition I see for pre-season favorite is Wisconsin, assuming Taylor stays.

Anyway, thoughts?

P.S. It will feel good to place a bet on Michigan winning it next year and feel like they have a legitimate chance. Hasn't happened in a while!

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

March 17th, 2011 at 5:33 PM ^

A favorite, not the favorite.  Even without Sullinger OSU will have a whole bunch of players, plus the usual ridiculous array of freshmen whose uncles, cousins, agents, handlers, and AAU coaches Thad Matta shelled out money to in order to get the privilege of speaking to the player.  So the media will still be all over the Buckeyes.  It'll be up to us to knock them off their perch.

rbgoblue

March 17th, 2011 at 6:58 PM ^

Well, assuming Sullinger goes pro (lottery pick - why wouldn't he?), lightey, diebler, and lauderdale graduate, and Buford could give up his sr year and go pro as well.  They return Craft and Thomas and whatever freshmen they add from what will likely be a strong recruiting class.  They will definitely be worse than this year, but still a very competitive team

Mr Mackey

March 17th, 2011 at 5:35 PM ^

I think we're definitely gonna be up there, but are there any huge freshman coming in for state or tSIO? If not, we could easily be picked pretty high. If Hummel can actually play next year, Purdue could be in front again though

FreddieMercuryHayes

March 17th, 2011 at 5:39 PM ^

We'll actually be in the discussion, but I can't think we'll be the favorite.  I still think OSU has a bunch of talent without Sullinger, Wisco could still be good, and Purdue as well, especially if Hummel can come back.  And as much as we like to rip on MSU, they still have talent, and Izzo who is a good coach.

GoBlogSparty

March 17th, 2011 at 5:57 PM ^

I'd buy it. Purdue will lose Johnson and Moore. Wisky will lose Leur, Nankivil, and possibly Taylor. MSU loses their 3 seniors, but brings in a ton of freshmen and people coming off redshirts. OSU loses not only Sullinger but Diebler Lighty and Lauderdale too. ILL loses McCamey but adds a stud in Tracy Abrams.

A team to watch out for -- Indiana. They lose Rivers but will be adding super star recruit Cody Zeller.

 

learmanj

March 17th, 2011 at 6:03 PM ^

Illinois is bringing in 4 top 100 recruits so despite their youth, they will have players.  OSU has 4 four-star players.  MSU picks up a 4 and a 5 star recruit, plus they still have Green, Appling, and Payne.  Then I think there is us and Purdue.  I don't think PU will be as good since they rely so heavily on Moore and Johnson but Painter knows what he is doing.

LSAClassOf2000

March 17th, 2011 at 6:03 PM ^

I think we'll be among the favorites, but not the top pick. We would definitely have a realistic chance to be at the top of the conference, which I like much. 

BRCE

March 17th, 2011 at 6:04 PM ^

If Buford returns, I think you will see OSU atop the pundits predictions again.

Looks like it's going to be a weak conference next year, that's for sure.

StephenRKass

March 17th, 2011 at 6:09 PM ^

Remember the predictions before last season, with Manny & Sims coming back? We saw how that turned out. In other words, we don't know. I will say I think we'll be in the top three (with OSU & Purdue.) I think we'll be better than Wisconsin and MSU. But one critical injury (Morris, Hardaway, or Morgan) or one crew of super freshmen coming in on another team could shift things widely.

Personally, I think the biggest wildcard for Michigan is what we have in bigs next year, beyond Morgan. Will Horford develop? Will anyone else step up who can fight under the basket? While Novak has done an admirable job, and Morgan has been great, and Smotz is improving, you could really see how Sully just powered to the basket. Actually, watching the Fab 5 thing reminded me sadly how wonderful it is to have a powerful, big, fast guy (or two) under the basket.

hajiblue72

March 17th, 2011 at 11:28 PM ^

Injuries (see Hummel) are a big factor.  And obviously we know what a good class of freshman can do for a team.  2 or 3 good freshman with a couple experienced players and good teams develop quicly.  However, players like Sullinger, JuJuan and Lucas are tough to replace and don't come around often.  Purdue is going to be hit hard - E'twan is gone too.

But Indiana has to be better, Northwestern brings almost everyone back and is no pushover - I think it will be a slugfest with no clear favorite.

 

 

bacon1431

March 17th, 2011 at 6:20 PM ^

Next year is going to be WIDE open. Everybody seems to be losing some big players or have some glaring weaknesses that need to be answered. Alot of it is going to depend on how well the freshmen perform across the conference. Should be an interesting season as there is no clear-cut favorite.

Tater

March 17th, 2011 at 6:22 PM ^

Until they produce and produce big, Michigan should still have the luxury of being underrated.  I think Michigan can win it next year, and will be in the mix, but MSM writers are, for the most part, lazy lemmings who follow the crowd.  In two years, maybe Michigan will be the trendy pick.  But it won't happen quite yet.

That will make it all the more satisfying if Michigan does exceed expectations for a second straight year.  

BlockM

March 17th, 2011 at 6:37 PM ^

Michigan will definitely have a shot at it for the first time in a while, especially if Burke or Brundidge can come in and light things up a bit and if Horford can keep improving down low.

Honestly, I could see MSU being up there as well if some of their bigs start playing better. Payne is going to cause matchup problems for a lot of people if Izzo ever decides to play him more than a few minutes at a time. The biggest question is whether Appling or one of the newcomers can pick up the slack that losing Lucas creates.

aaamichfan

March 17th, 2011 at 6:38 PM ^

It's tough to say. I'm not really sure how much improvememt we'll see between now and next year. Certain players will obviously gain experience, but I still don't think we'll have the horses to win the B10. Will definitely be in the discussion though.

WolvinLA2

March 17th, 2011 at 6:54 PM ^

I think Illinois and OSU will be at the top - unless Buford goes pro which I doubt.  Those teams will have talent, even though they both lose a lot after this year.  Purdue and Wisco lose too much talent to be considered contenders again, and their recruiting classes aren't that good.  MSU loses Lucas and Summers but that's it and they have a great class coming in, and as mentioned above, Indiana could be very good if Zellers is as good as advertised in college. 

If Hummel can come back, Purdue will still be solid, and Wisconsin always finds a way to win, but they won't be as good as they were this year.  The Big Ten might not be as good at the top next year as it is this year, but I bet we still get 7 in the tournament, but next year it will be Indiana instead of PSU, and Iowa might even make a push.

maizenblue92

March 17th, 2011 at 6:57 PM ^

I see Michigan as about a 3rd place finisher in the Big 10 next year. With about an 11-7 to 13-5 conference record. WIth Purdue (2) and OSU (1) as the top 2.

WolvinLA2

March 17th, 2011 at 7:21 PM ^

Why are people so big in Purdue?  The lose Moore and Johnson who combined for like 150% of Purdue's points.  They have those role players coming back, and maybe Robbie Hummel who has had like 4 knee surgeries now, but no one good in their recruiting class coming in.  Honest question - what is it about Purdue that makes people think they'll be good next year?

michgoblue

March 17th, 2011 at 7:00 PM ^

I still think that in order to be considered THE favorite, we will need to have at least 1 big man.  We will continue to struggle against taller teams until we have someone that can match up with other teams' 6'8" + guys. 

Which raises a question, since I haven't followed MBB recruiting:  Who do we have coming in?  Anyone exciting, top rated or even just tall?

bacon1431

March 17th, 2011 at 7:11 PM ^

We've got Carlton Brundidge, a 6'1" bulldozer that knows how to score. He needs to get in better shape and adjust to the speed of the college game but I think he'll be good by the time he's an upperclassmen.

Trey Burke is a 6'1" point guard that can score and distribute. He is going to be a very good one IMO and he's very exciting. He's form the same high school and is a good friend of Jared Sullinger.

They are looking to add a big man with one scholarship remaining. Right now the top target is Max Bielfeldt who is 6'6" about 230. Not huge, but he could contribute. I don't know how ready he'll be to contribute next year though. There is another kid that is over 7' but I forget his name. And I think he'd be a project anyways. So for the immediate future I think our help in the post is going to come in the form of Horford's and McClimans' improvement.

WolvinLA2

March 17th, 2011 at 7:28 PM ^

Not that I think Smotrycz will ever be a real post player, especially on offense, he could still be a big help down low once he spends a full off-season learning post play and adding some bulk.  He got pushed around a lot, but with some added weight and strength, he could be solid.

Another guy who I think can help us in the post is Colton Christian.  He'd never going to be a major offensive threat, and he's only 6'6" but he's built pretty well and has good athleticism.   He's already got 5 pounds on Novak, and after another year of strenght training I could see him being a poor man's Trevor Mbakwe on defense.  I think he has the athleticism to guard guys 2-3 inches taller than him really well, which is a 4 in the Big Ten.  I don't know if he'll ever start, but we'll see him a lot more in the coming years, especially against teams with multiple good big men.

Steve in PA

March 17th, 2011 at 9:01 PM ^

I don't understand why people insist on seeing a classic post bigman in JB's offense.  It's not that kind of offense at all.  It's more similar to a classic 4-out offense with the big man in the high post.  JB's version of a big man is a euro-style center that can step out and shoot 3's or distribute (Dirk). 

The classic B10 banger isn't gonna happen.  I am looking forward to seeing Horford with another year in the weight room and growth.

TTUwolverine

March 17th, 2011 at 8:04 PM ^

Jon Horford?  I know he wasn't particularly good when he got minutes... but if reports about him being up to 242 lbs are true he could really emerge as a weapon down low.  Keep in mind that there are very few college teams out there that actually have a 6'11" beast of a center.  If Morgan and Smotrycz continue to improve, and Horford emerges as a legitimate threat, I think we will be just fine down low. 

john22

March 17th, 2011 at 7:44 PM ^

thought this was about football. Yes we are the only team that isn't supposed to any players. I think Tim Hardaway Jr will only get better. GO BLUE!!!

champswest

March 17th, 2011 at 8:55 PM ^

rather pointless.  Consider at the start of this year, we were picked to finish 10th or 11th in the Big 10 and MSU was picked 2nd in the COUNTRY.  We both ended up tied for 4th.  Few would have predicted either of those things happening and no one would have predicted both.

jmblue

March 18th, 2011 at 12:23 AM ^

My guess is OSU will be voted the preseason favorite, in a classic "We don't know what to expect so we'll just go with the best team last year" vote.  But we might be picked to finish in the top 3.