Has there really been improvement from 09 to 10?

Submitted by ChalmersE on
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Let me preface this post by stating that I have been a big Rodriguez booster from the time he was hired.  However, I must admit my support has wavered  and I am now approaching ambivalence on the issue of whether he should be rehired.  That said, one of the things that Brandon said he looks at is progress on and off the field.  I'm not sure whether any of us know what's up off the field -- other than we've put the NCAA and Freep allegations behind (for the most part) -- but on the field, I'm not sure whether there's been any progress from last year to this point.  Yes, Michigan will finish the regular season at 7-5 or 8-4 and that is indeed progress when compared to 5-7.  Also there is no doubt the offense is dynamic and exciting, and there's no telling what the numbers would be if the defense was even barely adequate.  That, of course, brings us to the defense.  It's hard to believe, but it's actually worse than last year.  I know there are excuses including Woolfolk's injuries, but they're just excuses.  That brings us to comparison of game results.  I've essentially broken things down into three categories: better result, same result and worse result.  Let's take a look. 

Better result:  Connecticut over Western (because of the quality of opponent.  UCONN, believe it or not could still win the Big LEast.);  Purdue (although some might quibble, since we could have won last year and needed a late TD to secure this year -- against a team that was clearly worse than the 09 version).

Same result:  Notre Dame (last second winning drive); Indiana (ditto -- arguably worse but I'll call the same);  UMass-Del State ; Bowling Green-EMU; Illinois (we should have won last year, without a bounce to Hemingway, we lose this year).

Worse result:  MSU (we were one play from winning last year on the road); Iowa (we had the ball with a chance to win on the road); Penn State (the result was similar, but we were playing a team with more injuries than we had); Wisconsin (at least were competitive in the first half last year -- on the road).

Thus, one can make a case that the team overall is performing the same as last year.  What does this mean?  Perhaps nothing, but Dave Brandon has said he looks for progress in making his decisions.  Absent a win over OSU, has there truly been progress?

SysMark

November 23rd, 2010 at 10:04 AM ^

"Wisconsin (at least were competitive in the first half last year -- on the road)."

I won't even get into the rest of it but this one makes no sense.  Last week it was 24-14 early in the 3rd quarter and we had momentum - we were competitive in the 2nd half.  We are a much better 2nd half team this year and that is a good thing.  You can knock RR if you want but you have to stay with the facts.

cfaller96

November 23rd, 2010 at 10:06 AM ^

To all the people who are desperately seeking legitimate ways to express "concern" over RichRod even though he has met expectations while simultaneously fielding a secondary literally full of HS kids:

RICH RODRIGUEZ IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE.  YOUR BELOVED NFL FARM SYSTEM IS NOT COMING BACK.  DEAL WITH IT.

Sincerely,

Sane Michigan Fans

michgoblue

November 23rd, 2010 at 11:27 AM ^

Do you have a cite for that Brandon quote?  Did you have a personal off-the-record discussion with Brandon?  If not, how do you know this to be a fact?

And, if it were such a done deal, why wouldn't Brandon have announced as much publicly, to give RR some added support? 

cfaller96

November 23rd, 2010 at 3:58 PM ^

Seriously, if you want to suggest that Dave Brandon will fire a coach after only three years and after his first bowl game (all while returning almost everybody for year 4), then go ahead. Personally, that doesn't strike me as a reasonable projection of the future.  To me that seems more like wishful thinking.

But whatever, if you want to continue to wish for someone else and refuse to get the eff on board with the current coach of the team you love, then I can't stop you.  Continue pining away for that NFL Farm Team that is JUST AROUND THE CORNER, if you must.

michgoblue

November 23rd, 2010 at 10:13 AM ^

I do think that there have been improvements.  They might not be as fast as they should be (and this could be on the coaching), but there have been improvements.  The simplest way to demonstrate:

In 2008, we lost to everyone, including MAC teams.  We were a joke.

Last year, we at least ran the table on the OOC cupcakes, but couldn't beat a single B10 team (except indiana).

This year, we still ran the OOC table, but have beaten Indiana, Illinois and Purdue.  Admittedly, we haven't beaten a single good team, but last year we were losing to even the crappy B10 teams.  This is improvement.

Assuming RR stays (and that is a big assumption), I see this progression continuing next year.  Maybe we still will not run the table, and we would probably still lose to a team like this year's Wisconsin team, but we should certainly be able to win some of our games against the upper-middle B10 teams like MSU, Iowa, Northwestern and next year's Wisconsin.  So, while we will probably still struggle (but be competitive with) teams like OSU and Nebraska, we should improve to the point where we are an above average B10 team.

Why?  The offense loses nothing.  We return virtually every single player.  The year-to-year improvement for Denard alone - from a first year starter to a seasoned starter with 16 extra practices and an entire spring season under his belt - should be worth a win or 2.  How different would our record be if Denard cut in half his turnovers against MSU, Iowa and PSU?  We would have won at least 1 of those games.  QB turnovers decline significantly in the second starting year.  (Mathlete?).

How about the RB situation.  We have 2 big time RBs coming in this year that should provide the Slaton to Denard's Pat White (I know, the comparison is done to death, but it is apt).  And, even putting aside the freshmen, V. Smith will be a year older and fully rehabbed from his ACL.  Improvement.

As for the defense - even if half of our injured players return, that is worth a win or 2.  Plus, those players who had a full season of playing time this year will be so much more seasoned.  The defense can't possibly be worse, and there are many reasons to think that it will improve.  Probably still a below-average defense, but even if they are just below average, we should win 2 more games. 

So yes, there is improvement and reason to believe that there will be MORE improvement enxt year.

maizenbluenc

November 23rd, 2010 at 10:15 AM ^

I was just thinking this morning, how the past two years we've limped into The Game in whipped / beaten puppy state. The team seemed to have given up three or four games before.

This year, the team has not given up. They may have lost games convincingly, but I can't point to a single moment of them rolling over.

Yes our defense is riddled with injuries, and talent that didn't make it to, or is no longer on campus, BUT they haven't given up. Molk has gone down, Odoms, any given running back, Denard here and there, etc., AND our offense has stepped up and continued to compete.

This is a huge difference than the past two years, and say a Weisian-coached ND team.

So, I don't like where our defense is, and I don't like the turnovers, and the kicking is really a disaster, but this team is young, AND they are still fighting.

For that reason I am entering The Game with at least the view that we should see a competitive offensive game. With a few breaks, good things are possible. (This is in contrast to quarterbacks with their arms hanging in pain in '07 and '09, and good 'ole Sheridan (not even Threet) in '08.)

They're moving in the right direction. The real question is whether Rich is capable of making the changes necessary to field a competitive defense. (Hint: Loyalty is an admirable quality, but maybe some ex-WVU coaches need to go ...)

BrnAWlrne

November 23rd, 2010 at 10:23 AM ^

The problem with comparing our losses by point margin this year to last year is that you fail to take into consideration that the teams that we played last year will also imporive or like in Purdue's case, due to injury, will actually be a worse team.  It's obvious that Wisconsin, MSU, and Iowa (to an extent) have all gained experience and are much more mature teams.  I'll take those losses.  So out of the 4 games we've lossed,  3 have been to teams that were (are) serious big ten contenders.  I'll take that record over the one we had last year and if we can put together a servieable defense, we will have a lot more wins to add to the bunch

oakapple

November 23rd, 2010 at 10:29 AM ^

Michigan has improved slightly. The Wolverines have beaten most of the teams they should have beaten (Penn State being the only possible exception). And Wisconsin was really the only game that they never had a real chance to win.

The red flag is that all four of Michigan’s losses are by more than two scores, but four of Michigan’s wins are by one score or less. Michigan is, in other words, much closer to having more losses, than it is to having more wins.

The Notre Dame and Illinois wins, in particular, definitely qualify as lucky breaks, with an injury to the starting QB playing a big part in the ND win, and a freak bounce in Junior Hemingway’s favor deciding the Illinois game. There wasn’t any comparable bad luck that took away a game Michigan should have won.

Overall, improvement on offense has been somewhat canceled out by playing worse on defense and special teams than the Wolverines did a year ago.

jamiemac

November 23rd, 2010 at 11:32 AM ^

I dont think its fair or accurate to say only a freak bounce vs Illinois enabled us to win that game.

First, it wasnt the final play. Even if incomplete, we still get at least another down to convert.

Two, as much as the ball juggled in the air, it really never came close to being picked off.

Three, the defender interfered with Hemingway and the ref had actually reached for his flag, but didnt pull the trigger I assume cuz he saw Junior catch the ball. I assume Michigan gets a first down if it falls incomplete. Or, maybe the ref decided to swallow his whistle. A bad break for MICH. That got evened out right away with Hemingway not giving up on the play. I guess my point is, by not getting the PI flag, this play was also a bad break for MICH

Four, there are breaks in every game. If we take that break from us, what big break can we eliminate from the equation on Illinois side. I'm sure we can find one that gives the win to Michigan.

CompleteLunacy

November 23rd, 2010 at 12:37 PM ^

What happens if Michigan has any less than 5 turnovers in that game? Luck goes both ways, my friend. If one argues that one "lucky" play the other way caused us to win, why can't I say something like not turning over the ball 5 times and the game wouldn't have even gone to OT in the first place? And let's not mention the surprising QB change...granted, Tate did great filling in, but his first play from scrimmage was a yakety sax that basically gave the game to Illinois early in the 4th quarter. What happens if Denard isn't benched?

UMfan21

November 23rd, 2010 at 11:42 AM ^

I think the OP minimalized the DB lack of depth that we had.  DWarr, Woolfolk, Demar, etc etc.  You cannot lose half your depth at ANY position and expect to be good.  Especially when you already have questionable depth/skill at LB.  Just too many question marks.

 

The one thing I think helped us last year, which I rarely see discussed is our special teams play in 09.  We were very fortunate to score TDs and get great returns on special teams last year.  Those don't show up in the offense or defense numbers, but they were still points we scored that were crucial in many games.  We obviously haven't been that fortunate this year.  You can say the special teams regressed this year, and I think it has....but last year I think we played well beyond the means...if there was a "points scored" statistic for kick returns, I would venture to guess we were well above average in 09.  Those easy points have not been there for us this year.  Everything has had to go through the offense.

CompleteLunacy

November 23rd, 2010 at 11:53 AM ^

(1)

Yes, Michigan will finish the regular season at 7-5 or 8-4 and that is indeed progress when compared to 5-7

You admit this is progress, and are still asking the question whether there has actually been improvement? How can there be progress without some measure of improvement? The only answer is luck...so you're saying the team has been THAT lucky this year? I agree there has been some luck (um, yeah, 10 turnovers in 2 games that WE WON!), but to say it was 100% luck is simply asinine.

(2)

That, of course, brings us to the defense.  It's hard to believe, but it's actually worse than last year.  I know there are excuses including Woolfolk's injuries, but they're just excuses.

It's actually not hard at all to believe. Quite the opposite, really. Many here were PANIC when Woolfolk went down before the season even started, and of course let's not forget the littany of attrition due to transfers or other reasons (which, while RR has some part of, certainly cannot be entirely put on him) I had false delusions that, hey, the defense is a year older and this = better. Ha, yeah right...not necessarily. And now we learn that GERG is really not the right coach for the job, despite the youth. And they're not "just" excuses, it's reality. RR keeps saying it, and it may not make you feel any better (it doesn't make me feel any better), but there's only so much you can do when your entire secondary is freshman and one senior whose been switched back and forth between corner and WR year-to-year (so, he's really got limited experience at corner as well, and it wasn't his primary position).. 

Certainly RR should take some heat for how he's handled the defense, but when you look at the bigger picture you see Michigan's most dynamic offense in about 50 years, which can only get better with some actual experience (as in, his players actually become upper classmen). The defense is bad, but why not give him one last shot to get it better?

Spoof Football

November 23rd, 2010 at 1:14 PM ^

We'll likely be on our THIRD DC at the end of this season (either way).

Special teams play makes one pine for the days of Jim Boccher. The worst. Ever. A total emarassment.

The defense is historically bad. Not just for Michigan, but for History.

The coaching staff appears to be splintered, at leasat defensively.

The high point--the offense of this offensive "guru"--looks, well into its third year--largely ineffective against the better teams on the schedule.

Four wins (Indiana, ND, Purdue, Illinois)--were shaky, and over mediocre to bad teams.

I don't think the improvement is anything to jump up and down screaming over--but the Rich Rod supporters will--and I don't see where it is enough to justify keeping Rodriguez barring an upset of OSU.

Two of three parts of the game are undeniably horrible. And recruiting isn't going so well, either.

I say after OSU toys with Michigan this week (probably beats UM by 10 due to Tressel Ball)--you blow RR out and start over. There's no need to prolong the agony for his supporters.

Spoof Football

November 23rd, 2010 at 1:33 PM ^

I understand being a Michigan fan and hoping (wishing, in this case) for the best, every time. 

But the blind, avid support for a guy who has proven NOTHING while here is something I can't understand at all.

Brian has allowed this "points" thing to ruin this blog, but Rodriguez will either prove himself this Saturday or hopefully be cleaning out his desk come Sunday morning.

CompleteLunacy

November 23rd, 2010 at 2:04 PM ^

by saying RR has proven nothing. If you want to have a rational discussion, fine, but you blatantly ignore the good by saying that. 

Also, if 2 of 3 phases of the game are really that bad, how does Michigan have 7 wins? And regarding ST: we have an awesome budding punter, our kick returns are better than 2 years ago (although still not good enough). Our problem lies within the kinda-randomly bad placekicking...but it is not a problem unique to Michigan. ST isn't as bad as you think it is....we haven't given up a punt/kick return TD yet, which you can't even say about some of the best Big 10 teams in teh conference.

Like I said, if you want to have a rational discussion, I recommend you start by NOT generalizing the "pro-RR" crowd as blind and avid supporters. Then maybe you won't get negged into oblivion.

OSUMC Wolverine

November 23rd, 2010 at 6:45 PM ^

Our special teams play stinking up the room is a function of all of our would be special teams players having to start and/or play significant amounts and thus less time can be spent on special teams.  When you have 9-10 defensive backs less on the team at this point than you thought you would have in June, that is a serious problem--especially on a team that had depth issues to begin with.  Special teams will absolutely suffer