The "Harbaugh Bump" - How Harbaugh Improves Teams vs Prior Regimes
You've heard of the Beilein bump. I present to you the Harbaugh bump.
Below are Harbaugh's 3 previous coaching stops and the winning % of the previous 2 coaches at each stop, versus what Harbaugh did at those locations. I then did a straight variance of the winning %s - note this is not "percent improvement".... just a subtraction of the Harbaugh!!!!!!!!!!!!!! winning % versus the prior 2 coaches.
I then subtly applied the average of those 3 prior stops improvement to what would happen if he could repeat that improvement at UM. i.e. the Harbaugh bump.
The results were positive. Don't doubt it. It's science math.
USD | ||
Fogarty/McGarry | 55.4% | |
Harbauuuugh! | 82.3% | |
26.9% | Improvement | |
Stanford | ||
Teevens/Harris | 28.5% | |
Harbauuuugh! | 58.0% | |
29.5% | Improvement | |
SF | ||
Nolan/Singletary | 37.9% | |
Harbauuuugh! | 76.6% | |
38.7% | Improvement | |
Ave Improvement | 31.7% | |
Rodriguez/Hoke | 52.2% | |
Harbauuuugh! | 83.9% | <---profit |
31.7% |
For perspective Bo was 80%, Tressel/Carroll/Spurrier types 81-82%.
December 28th, 2014 at 7:17 PM ^
If RichRod/hoke had us at 68.3% the bump would mean we would never lose again.
December 28th, 2014 at 7:19 PM ^
Sounds about right.
December 28th, 2014 at 7:20 PM ^
Absolutely correct.
December 28th, 2014 at 7:18 PM ^
You forgot to add an extra 10% for The Michigan Difference (tm).
December 28th, 2014 at 7:24 PM ^
Is it as good as the Colbert bump?
December 28th, 2014 at 7:25 PM ^
It would be interesting to compare his last few years at Stanford to the previous coaches' last years. The 58% doesn't do what he did to that program justice.
December 28th, 2014 at 7:25 PM ^
It would be interesting to compare his last few years at Stanford to the previous coaches' last years. The 58% doesn't do what he did to that program justice.
December 28th, 2014 at 7:25 PM ^
It would be interesting to compare his last few years at Stanford to the previous coaches' last years. The 58% doesn't do what he did to that program justice.
December 28th, 2014 at 7:32 PM ^
Well his last year was 92.3% at Stanford. So you can do the math.
December 28th, 2014 at 7:26 PM ^
anyone watching the 9ers game? anything said that we don't already know? it's not on here..
December 28th, 2014 at 7:26 PM ^
Man...the guys on the team better be ready....they are in for a shock to the system. And a shock is exactly whats needed to instill a winning mentality throughout the locker room
December 28th, 2014 at 7:28 PM ^
Hoke had the slump.
December 28th, 2014 at 7:35 PM ^
Everything is coming up Harbaugh!!
December 28th, 2014 at 7:42 PM ^
Willingham might have been the last coach of relatively recent note to lead Stanford to a winning record overall as well as in the conference - the seasons were up and down and the bowl record was something like 1-3, as I recall. Teevens and Harris were both atrocious, but then they land Harbaugh and he might be the only coach there in a long time under whom Stanford got better every year he was there. Definitely hard to deny the program David Shaw took over was in excellent shape.
December 28th, 2014 at 8:17 PM ^
Also hard to deny Stanford is backsliding, despite having historically excellent recruiting.
December 28th, 2014 at 8:03 PM ^
I'm excited about Harbaugh but it's tough to believe this will happen at Michigan until I see it. There were similar graphics about RR and it has been beaten into us the last several years that we can't have nice things. While MSU and OSU are enjoying some of the best years in program history and even ND played for a title. Hopefully this finally works for us.
December 28th, 2014 at 8:23 PM ^
nothing of substance. Just evidence that I was able to get a post in during the Great Harbaugh Outage
December 28th, 2014 at 8:46 PM ^
Two of my posted didn't make it
December 28th, 2014 at 10:08 PM ^
10 wins would be nice. (That's essentially what that winning percentage is)
December 28th, 2014 at 11:00 PM ^
Wisco had an elite RB with a great Oline and QBs who were borderline horrific. If we can get close to their production from RBs and average QB play we can get 10 wins.