The Gunner Kiel Commit Watch Begins...
Did he ever take a second visit out here?
Where is he expected to go?
Oklahoma. I would take Appleby......:/
Appleby might not be a terrible choice. Kid is an elite 11 finalist. Pretty raw, but very talented.
Don't like UM's chances with Mauk or do you just like Appleby better?
I see Kiel at Oklahoma, and Mauk at ND. Not a bad consolation prize for the Irish.
Not sure I agree, when ND misses on Kiel more people are expecting ND to close out QB recruiting till next season unless a rising senior pops up.
You don't think ND wants Mauk? He is supposed to be a pretty good one . . .
The situation is pretty hazy, Kiel isn't going to announce for ND (99% certain), ND told Mauk he couldn't commit when he wanted to (95% certain on that) because of Kiel. If they were still interested in Mauk, I am not sure what is preventing his decision now. Would rather he did look else where, imo
So the ND crowd sees Kiel as an Oklahoma lean then? And Mauk just doesn't seem like a fit? i know we used to have interest in Mauk, but I don't know why it cooled. Maybe with Shane Morris, we only take a qb if he is a blue chipper. I'm not convinced we need Appleby while we have Bellomy as a backup, as I thought he looked fine for that role.
I don't know that anyone knows where Kiel is going except for his family, but alabama and OU are supposed to have gotten the most visits, which is normally a strong indicator.
I think part of it is ND's depth, the depth chart won't change next year unless someone transfers. Crist, Rees, Hendrix and Golson would all be at ND next season. Mauk isn't a fan favorite of ND fans, at least the ones I talk to.
But I'm not fretting too much about it, mostly because of Morris.
If we get him, it would be an absolutely stacked stable of quarterbacks with D-Rob, Gardner, Kiel, and Morris. That's how we would get back to QuarterbackU.
Russell Bellomy!! Kid could be good down the road. Very important that we picked him up last year.
Very true also. Not only do I love him for pulling a Roundtree, but if Boise was high on him...well, they're really good at evaluating potential.
To me, Bellomy is the key to the "Do we take a QB this year?" question. If the coaches believe that he looks like a legitimate starting Michigan QB, then I'm fine with skipping a QB this year. If they aren't sure of that, though, it's too dangerous to go two straight years without bringing in a quarterback.
they took Bellomy last year so we wouldn't go two classes without bringing in a QB. Why does Bellomy have to be a legitimate starting QB? If he is a capable backup isn't that good enough if DG is granted his medical RS? That would leave Shane a year in the system to learn before having to take over the reigns.
The staff will have no idea if Bellomy is a a starting QB type for recruiting this year as he isn't even on campus yet. Did Denard look like a legitimate starting QB his freshman year? If some scholarships don't open up we have more pressing needs then a QB starting with two DTs and 3 OL.
In deciding whether he looks like a QB, they can use what they learned while recruiting him, not to mention that they could wait until after this season to sign a QB in this class.
I think it's important that he could be a legitimate starter. Let's say he looks like backup material (e.g., we could survive against lesser opponents with him but our offense would fall apart against real competition). If that's the case and we don't sign a QB this year, then we could be screwed if:
1. Morris doesn't develop as we all hope he will.
2. Gardner doesn't develop as we all hope he will.
3. Gardner or Morris go down to injury.
4. Gardner doesn't get his redshirt.
If the coaches think they can win with Bellomy, then I'm with you on the OL/DL thing. If they're uncertain, though, it just seems too risky given the importance of the position.
QBs mostly commit early, so they may not have many options late in the process.
Get back? It would be more like opening the Graduate School at Quarterback U. Has M ever had the equivalent of 3/4 of Shoelace, Gardner, Kiel and Morris on roster at once?
They won't. Denard will be graduated by the time Morris steps foot on campus.
I said 3/4 of. We'll have Denard, DG and Kiel or DG, Kiel, Morris. My question was if we've ever had three QB's that are so highly rated. I can't think of a time when we have.
Griese/Brady/Driesbach was a pretty decent triumvirate.
Brady was more of a Bellomy though, in terms of rating. No question the talent was there, but to pull three five star quarterbacks in four years is just on another level recruiting wise which I guess is what I meant.
Denard wasn't a 5 star qb. Definitely has 5 star talent though. As always GO BLUE!
Denard was a 4* ATH. DG, Kiel and Morris are all 5* QB's (or at least that's the hope with Morris).
But some issues with this statement. With regards to the current crop of quarterbacks:
Devin Gardner was a 5* from scout, but 4* from rivals.
Gunner Kiel is a 5* from scout, but 4* from rivals.
Shane Morris isn't any amount of stars yet because it's too early.
While that's three top-tier prospects, it's not quite "three 5 star recruits."
Second, back in 1997, we really didn't have the same recruiting ratings to work with, so we can't really compare.
In terms of recruiting hype, the 2004 roster had Matt Gutierrez, Chad Henne, and Clayton Richard, who I think were all regarded as top 5-10 QBs in their classes.
All from Scout.
Richard: 4* #13
Henne: 5* #4
Gutierrez: 4* #12
DG: 5* #4
Kiel: 5* #1
Morris: 5* #? (obviously assuming here, but it's a safe assumption I think)
Not a big deal, but I think you might have the Scout rankings. From Rivals:
Henne -- #3 QB in Class of 2004 (5 star)
Richard -- #4 QB in Class of 2003 (4 star)
Gutierrez -- #5 QB in Class of 2002 (4 star)
That's a crazy group of QBs.
Rivals would have it even closer than Scout would. I think what we're getting at is that we want moar five stars/ all your five stars are belong to us.
Gutierrez always struck me as the biggest "What-If" along with Bass under Carr. Kid never had great luck with injuries and playing time, but he always seemed like a potential stud when you would hear about him during practice.
He probably would have been. He didn't look too bad when he had playing time and the guy is in the NFL now so he's got to be solid.
Happy for him I always felt bad when Henne replaced him and he never had a chance to win the starting job back.
Also, for what it's worth, I never think it's safe to assume that a junior-to-be will be rated a 5*. Just too many unknowns (though I'm thrilled that Morris is coming).
True enough. He did walk away with that camp MVP award that Kiel didn't get though.
Whether or not he's a 5*, Morris will be a very highly rated QB which is all that matters for our comparison. I'm glad that this is possible to debate. I wish this could happen every 6-7 years.
Griese, Driesbach, Brady on the roster at the same time is hard to beat, with Henson not overlapping Griese. Until any of the current team or commits make it to the NFL, they can't compare.
I'd agree with overall talent level, but this is probably a bigger recruiting victory. If we land Kiel this has to be the best stretch of QB recruiting ever at M. That would be three five star prospects and two fours (if you include Denard's ATH rating) in the last five years. Obviously you're right that it doesn't mean any will pan out (Tate), but we'd be officially killing it on the recruiting trail.
If you want to talk NFL (going with one's that haven't already been named), Grbac and Collins on the same roster was pretty great. Lots of NFL seasons under their belt. And say what you will, having Henne and Mallett at the same time was probably equal to Devin and Shane.
Henne and Mallet are as close as it gets (might be better except Mallet left), IMO. Like I said before, it's a nice discussion to be able to have.
Griese, Driesbach, Brady on the roster at the same time is hard to beat, with Henson not overlapping Griese.
Don't forget Jason Kapsner, a '96 QB recruit. He was a huge recruiting coup - higher-rated than any of those (and just a hair below Henson). Kapsner waited his turn, but slipped behind Henson on the depth chart. He then took the opposite career path as Griese - he elected not to return for his fifth season after being offered a job in his line of study. As it turned out, that year (2000) Henson got hurt over the summer and Kapsner probably would have started the first month of the season, instead of the freshman Navarre. Oh well.
but with Shane in the fold I don't think Kiel comes here. It's highly unlikely Denard plays QB at the next level so he wouldn't count toward being a member of QB U. Success at the NFL level is what turns a school into a position factory. Look at all the Heisman winning QBs that Miami turned out that were absolute bust in the NFL so they never got the QB U designation.
I don't think Morris's commitment will be a big factor. If Kiel comes, he'll have a year's head start in the program over Morris. If anything, I would think it could potentially affect Morris more.
Def don't look past Bellomy. Kid has GREAT work ethics and drive. He might not be as highly scouted but he has ability.
Was really happy to grab him.
We don't necessarily need Kiel with Morris. Someone good enough to push Morris is what we need
With Morris a solid commit for next year and Bellomy's potential, we don't really need Kiel but he would be nice to have. I know they want to take a quarterback this year but if they can't get Kiel or Appleby, I would hope they don't take one. It'd be nice to save a scholly for someone else. DR has 2 yrs left and then we have DG and Bellomy behind him for 3 years and after that we have Morris to takeover. They would have to take one for 2014 but besides that I don't see the necessity in taking one.
He's going to Oklahoma
Is this one we should keep an eye on?
I don't think we have that much of a shot at him. It seemed like he was afraid of competition against Morris, as it was said before.
It's not necessarily a fear thing. There's only one QB on the field at a time and that's a crowded depth chart. If I were advising him, I'd tell him to seriously think about heading elsewhere.
If his goal is to get to the NFL, he needs to maximize his probability at being a multi-year starter and that's going to be much tougher at Michigan with our depth chart.
At some level I feel stupid for saying this, you should never turn down talent, but isn't stocking our depth chart with elite QBs just setting it up so someone transfers? I'd almost rather focus on Morris and take rawer talent ATH type QB this year (that we could move to WR/DB down the road maybe).
Coaches know best of course and it is dumb move to turn down elite QB talent, still I feel like overloading is just going to set up more transfer drama and the like.
Heck no. I want the absolute best players on the team. More competition the better.
Is a five star going to volunteer to sit for three years though (1 year behind Denard, 2 behind DG). I just worry we'll see something where the kid comes in, fails to knock out DG and transfers out in a huff. I'd rather take someone who will stay and help us build experienced depth than come in and bail out rather than sit behind DG.
I feel like Bellomy will push DG enough as it is. To me it's almost like this year we're just looking for the guy who ends up at the third string for awhile.
I like Morris as much as the next guy, but he won't even set foot on campus for two full seasons, and who knows what happens in between. Easing up on an elite QB because you've locked up a high school sophomore is a bold move, Cotton. Also, there is always the possibility that the coaches aren't particularly confident in the abilities of Devin Gardner just yet [ducks... narrowly dodges flying fruit].
EDIT: And on the transfers thing: media drama aside, if one QB transfers usually that means you've got a kick ass starter in front of him. Ryan Mallett disclaimer goes here.
But it is usually the player that loses the playing time battle or does not pan out that transfers. Why not stack our chances of getting a great qb and if one is a bust or transfers because others are better it doesn't matter since we have the other elite players
But that reason is why a QB of this caliber is not life and death. But you never turn down talent. Competition is good, and you never know who pans out. Most transfers aren't as much drama as some lately have seemed to be.
Two situations - imagine if Rich had said "I have Denard AND Tate...I really dont need a QB anytime soon...if Devin comes, he comes". Then where's our QB depth? And yeah, it seems odd for a top QB to commit to maybe sit for 3 years; but again, you never know. One guy in just such a situation- Henne, behind also highly touted Gutierrez. And we all know what happened there.
You don't recruit "back-ups"; you have to recruit guys who can play.
Some get injured. Some aren't as good as their rating. Some lose the love for the game.
Since you never know who's going to work out, better to get as many of the best players as possible.
The rest will sort itself out.
Let me assure you, the starters rarely transfer b/c they're pushed too hard in practice. Now the 3 or 4 deep guys (whether they were highly rated or not) that aren't seeing the field may have a better chance elsewhere.
Always get the best players.
Alabama is very high on him too, even though there's a 5 star qb from Alabama in this class they would prefer Kiel and have made a very strong push for him. Realistically he has to pick between 3 schools at this point. All of them have starting qb's picked out and depth at qb so he'll have to fight for his spot at any of them Oklahoma has 4 scholarship qb's, Alabama has 3, we have 3.
Don't care how much depth you have. You can't turn down a player like this, EVER.
Bellomy is gonna surprize us alll.
and, i really think a QB can have a single successfull year and easily make it into the NFL.
Cam Newton proved that, but it's probably better to get a couple of years as a starter. Lots of QBs struggle in their first few games as a starter while they work out the kinks.
Cam Newton wasn't a one year starter he started the year before and led his team to the JUCO national championship.
Not the same kind of competition but it certainly helped him start without having to work out too many kinks. Newton did have a lot of games where he started off very shaky before getting it together though so the points still sort of valid.
Newton showed us that to be true
I personally think QB isn't a huge need but can't turn away a talented player like Kiel. Would only help push the other QB's.. rather get a stud RB
Doubt we're getting Kiel. It's time to turn to Appleby.
is my guess. That is fine. With Morris in 2013, I think we look at an Appleby or someone of that nature, and if not...well, not ideal, but so be it.
is that it would be amaizing to have a Gunner at the helm!
Someone may commit on the 10th and Gunner will commit within the next 10 days and if in the next 6 days he makes it out for a visit we could be in good position. but in all actualility he most likely go to Oklahoma
I'm taking the long view on this whole Kiel commitment; if he comes that's great and if not we have a number of viable options at the position. This is not Sheridan/Threet redux and this talk of Kiel, Appleby etc. is very reassuring.
Michigan needs some quarterback in this class at least for depth. You never know what injuries will happen.
Did Kiel ever make it out to visit again? And has he been anywhere else recently that might have spurred the decision to commit? I hope we get him, but I'd actually be just fine with Appleby; I think he's a good, under-the-radar prospect who could end up being an excellent QB. That said, let's all cross our fingers for Kiel!
he is well known. if there were such a choice, I'd take BDunn over GKiel, and be very, very happy about it. I'm not very impressed with our stable of running backs, and looking quite forward to see if Rawls and Hayes can push the upperclassmen. And if FitzT can stay healthy, he might be interesting as well.
Are we even a serious contender? I would think that with our QB depth and Morris commitment this guy is probably going with Oklahoma.
Kiel to Indiana, book it.
Watching the video of a freshman in high school play that well gives me goosebumps. On top of that he was the best QB at this years camp. We don't need Kiel. We need a Michigan man that wants to be here.
visits next weekend along with all the other top recruits coming we have a really good shot of landing him. but if he doesnt visit, we're out of it
In terms of QB depth at Oklahoma, Alabama, and Michigan, then Michigan is the school at which Kiel would see the field the earliest. Oklahoma has Blake Bell who is a RS Freshman who will take the reigns after Jones leaves, and Alabama has AJ McCarron as a Sophomore and Philip Sims as a RS freshman. I am assuming Kiel would be able to overtake Bellomy, so the school that he would have to wait the least before starting would be Michigan. I still think Oklahoma is the favorite to land Kiel, but I think there is still a slight chance for us.
because all he has to do to win the starting job is beat Gardner and Bellomy. In order to win the starting job, Gardner has to fit exactly what Borges wants IMO. Borges isn't going to adjust his offense for four years. With Denard, he has a special talent and someone who had a really good season, so he has to adapt for Denard's two remaining years. However, it's unreasonable to expect an OC to adapt for four years, which could be a problem because I don't think Gardner has proven he can make all the pro-style throws yet. If Kiel comes in and he displays a better ability to make those throws, he will start. Competing with someone who was recruited under an old regime and a last minute QB is better than competing against QBs who were recruited for the same system. Bellomy could be a wild card here. He really came on strong his senior season and I'm glad we landed him.
Why is it unreasonable to expect an OC to adapt his offense to the talents of his players? Isn't that what he is paid to do? Bo's OCs found a way to adapt from the talents of option QBs (like Leach) to mostly dropback guys (like Harbaugh) back to mostly option guys (Taylor/Brown). I would hope that Borges can do likewise. Besides, Gardner is more of a pocket passer than Denard, anyway. Even if RR were still around for his starting years, I don't think we'd have run the exact same offense with him.
Kiel is a lock for Sparty. They are THE national recruiting power.
I love DG... I hope he's an all-American, but he hasn't shown anything yet. I know it's a long shot, but if we sign Kiel this year, I would assume that 2 years from now, DG is in a dog fight for that starting QB role, unless someone can convince me otherwise.
???? You say it as though Gardner's had plenty of opportunities and has been a disappointment so far.
He was a pure freshman who had a total of 17 snaps in 4 games playing behind two sophomores who already had significant experience. He hasn't had a chance to show anything yet, or not. There is an almost complete lack of meaningful data.
How about lets not insult a kid in High School.
The first post of thread asks if Gunner Kiel ever took a 2nd visit to Michigan but I never found an answer so I thought I would ask again. If he has not already visited a 2nd time, does he have a visit planned, I believe I remember reading that he planned on visiting Michigan again. Speaking of visits, are Jarron Jones and Erik Magnuson still planning on visiting Michigan soon, and have Adolphus Washington and Dwayne Stafford rescheduled their visits? If Gunner has taken, or will take a 2nd visit before he decides I think Michigan has a decent shot with him. GO BLUE!!!!
Last I heard, Magnuson and Jones were coming the 10th. Nothing on Stanford and Washington.
My Oklahoma friends who follow it close on a subscription basis tell me that it it is between Alabama and Michigan. Michigan considered the late horse charging hard on the back stretch.
These guys called RJS fairly early, so maybe they have some insight.
if he visits next weekend like ive heard then we should be in good shape especially if he wants to be near home
Is he actually scheduled to visit? Hopefully Tom's recruiting post tonight will help clear some stuff up.