Guessing Our Tournament Chances

Submitted by Kingpin74 on

My assumptions:

-46% chance to beat Iowa (Kenpom)

-65% chance to win first BTT game (we were 77% to beat NW at home on Kenpom last week so I figure that's a conservative guess on a neutral court against the similar type of team we'd play)

-30% chance to win 2nd round BTT game (we were 22% to win at Maryland on Kenpom last week, 30% seems reasonable on a neutral court against the similar type of team we'd play)

-25% to win a semifinal game in BTT (same logic as above plus fatigue and possibly better opponent)

Scenario 1: If we beat Iowa and lose first BTT game, 80% chance to make tournament (these are all guesses, you might disagree)                    

Scenario 2: If we beat Iowa and go 1-1 in BTT, 95% chance to make tournament          

Scenario 3: If we beat Iowa and win two BTT games, 100% chance to make tournament

Scenario 4: If we lose to Iowa and lose first BTT game, 10% chance to make tournament

Scenario 5: If we lose to Iowa and go 1-1 in BTT, 50% chance to make tournament        

Scenario 6: If we lose to Iowa and go 2-1 in BTT, 80% chance to make tournament        

Scenario 7: If we lose to Iowa and reach BTT finals, 100% chance to make tournament

If you do the math based on my assumptions above and add up the chances of these scenarios actually happening, you get:

Scenario 1 (12.88%) + Scenario 2 (20.93%) + Scenario 3 (8.97%) + Scenario 4 (1.89%) + Scenario 5 (12.29%) + Scenario 6 (6.32%) + Scenario 7 (2.63%)= 65.91% chance for Michigan to make the tournament

Does that sound right or are my guesses too generous/harsh?

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TruBluMich

February 29th, 2016 at 1:23 AM ^

Thanks for fixing the format.  Numbers look about right.  I'm not really sure beating Iowa is going to seal the deal either.  I'd feel a lot more confident if we can pull off 3 more wins.  Anything less and Im going to be really nervous during the selections.

Joined: 08/03/2011

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ijohnb

February 29th, 2016 at 7:06 AM ^

when you just spent major $ to make your facilities on par with elite programs. I never foresaw this, but I agree that someone will have a discussion with Beilein if we don't make the tourney(and perhaps even if we do). It is true that we are not loaded with talent. It is also true that Irvin, Walton, and Chairman were all 4 star recruits and coveted by major programs and Wilson/Donnal were no slouch recruits either. They are not playing to potential, and the individual defensive issue are an elephant in the room. JB has made his reputation as being a "teacher" but these kids don't appear to be learning.

Joined: 09/21/2009

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ijohnb

February 29th, 2016 at 12:16 PM ^

you raise the caliber of a program, you are now stuck with the expectations that you created.  It may not seem fair, but that is the way it is.  There have been major performance and recruiting issues here since their back to back tournaments, with the recruiting issues occuring for about 4 years now.  The way they play defense is not acceptable for a high level college program.  I love Beilein, he is one of my all time favorite basketball coaches, but he is not going to be able to live on that Final Four forever.

Joined: 09/21/2009

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Yeoman

February 29th, 2016 at 7:59 PM ^

A lot of fans think that way but most athletic directors are smarter than this. Ours sure as hell is.

Letting coaches set their own bar, effectively rewarding failure and punishing success, is how you end up being Rutgers.

Joined: 06/08/2011

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funkifyfl

February 29th, 2016 at 11:13 AM ^

If this is true, then I say our chances of dancing should be lower per the OP. IOW, I think losing to Iowa and winning one BTT game is our most likely outcome and if that does not get us in, then the overall dancing probability should be less than OP's 65%.

 

 

Joined: 01/21/2011

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Richard75

February 29th, 2016 at 6:15 AM ^

The field isn't the 68 best. Nor is it supposed to be. When you take out low-major auto bids, it's more like the 50 best.

Are we one of the 50 best? That is the question, and that is highly debatable.



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lilpenny1316

February 29th, 2016 at 9:23 AM ^

That makes the committee look at more than just the # of wins.  We played MSU, Indiana, OSU and Wisconsin once.  Maryland and Iowa we'll play twice.  We need to beat Iowa now that OSU beat them (and beat us as well).  And we'll need to beat a tourney bound team in the BTT.  Beating NW or Minnesota again would do nothing major for us.  

Joined: 11/19/2009

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ak47

February 29th, 2016 at 9:58 AM ^

8 of our 10 wins are against shit teams. It's why the committee rightly doesn't take conference record into account officially. Not to mention if Michigan played 10 straight games against other bubble teams does anyone really think we would go better than 5-5. I sure as hell don't. We are right where this team belongs based on talent and play. A fringe tourney team and that is incredibly dissapointing for a second straight year.

Joined: 05/05/2011

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BigBlue02

February 29th, 2016 at 11:35 AM ^

This is an absolutely ridiculous and shitty way to look at it. It is also looking at it in the worst way possible, which I'm not surprised from you. With the top 7 teams in the B10, we have played 5 of them only once and the two that we have played twice, Maryland and Purdue, we split with both. I have no doubt in my mind that we are competitive with and probably beat Wisky and OSU at home. We have played our schedule because that is all we can do. I can't figure this team out, but you give them far less credit than they actually deserve because they didn't live up to your ridiculous expectations without our best player

Joined: 06/29/2009

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ak47

February 29th, 2016 at 12:03 PM ^

Of course teams get punished for their schedule. There is a reason mid major teams can win like 28 games and not make the tourney. We have a week strength of schedule and still lost to smu, xavier, and uconn with levert. Our best win on the road is like Illinois. Sure it's not technically our fault that our big ten schedule was weak but we got msu and Indiana at home as the one offs. That was a break we didn't take advantage of. So while you belive we could beat osu or wiscy at home we could also have additional loses to Indiana and msu on the road. It goes both ways.

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LV Sports Bettor

February 29th, 2016 at 2:19 PM ^

would have played the entire Big Ten schedule with a starting lineup of Donnal, Irvin, Walton, Robinson and MAAR, I would have expected at their best maybe a .500 conference record overall which looks to right where they will be. 



 

Joined: 12/06/2014

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UMForLife

February 29th, 2016 at 5:46 AM ^

We had senior leadership in the past and these kind of odds were still good enough for M. With this team, I give them one more win, which will be at BTT and I want to be surprised.

Joined: 11/04/2013

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Bigasshammm

February 29th, 2016 at 6:05 AM ^

I've never understood the tournament. What's the decided advantage to making it in? Does the school get a ton of money like bowl games? How is it better to make the big tournament and have literally 0 chance to win over making the NIT and having a good chance at winning it? Is it all just the prestige? Is not winning the NIT better than a possible first round loss in the tournament? NIT you get home games don't you? Or is it neutral sites as well?
I understand from the small school perspective that making the dance is an accomplishment and exciting. But from a team like Michigan having no chance at success just delays the inevitable.

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bacon

February 29th, 2016 at 6:21 AM ^

I think it's a benchmark for success and a team like Michigan should expect to make the tourney every year as an indicator the program is on the right track. I think missing one year is understandable for a program like Michigan, but many years in a row suggests there's a problem. One mitigating factor though in my mind is the strength of the Big Ten overall, but you'd like to see tournament appearances as a rule.

Joined: 01/04/2009

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MichiganMAN47

February 29th, 2016 at 6:28 AM ^

Put yourself into the shoes of a player. They want the chance to play in a Sweet Sixteen or Final Four, as opposed to an NIT consolation prize. You have to be in it to win it. And administration will never reject an NCAA bid- why? No recruits will ever come here again. No recruit wants their dreams flushed down the drain by an admin. So no, we don't want to go to an NIT under any scenario, and the people who keep bringing up the fact that it's better are rationalizing this frustrating season away.

Joined: 02/24/2015

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olm_go_blue

February 29th, 2016 at 10:43 AM ^

Yea its like why go to the rose bowl and potentially lose, when you could go to the BWW bowl and be able to dominate a MAC team. And, to your point on home games, its in Detroit!

 /s

NIT has no cachet, almost better to stay home. You think Top 50 recruits are like wow, UM made it pretty far this year in the NIT - with me, they could win the whole NIT next year!!!

Joined: 08/09/2013

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bacon

February 29th, 2016 at 6:14 AM ^

Scenario 8: We win vs Iowa, win the BTT and win the NCAA tourney. I think the chances of Scenerio 8 are probably similar to the chances of me going on a date with Kate Upton this weekend. I'm sure Kate loves bacon and all, but it's not happening.

Joined: 01/04/2009

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BornInAA

February 29th, 2016 at 8:04 AM ^

And that has been happing in more than one game - missed layups missed dunks missed freethrows.

I don't think I've ever seen a Div I player miss a layup or a dunk until Michigan this year.

We are going to get crushed in the Big Ten tourney and then crushed in the NIT.

If these players don't do some heavy growing up offseason, next year will probably be Beilein's last.

Joined: 11/21/2009

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ijohnb

February 29th, 2016 at 8:14 AM ^

think it is a team that could give some teams fits in the tourney. It would be entirely about the draw. You are correct though, the sheer number of blown opportunities with bunnies near the rim and free throws probably cost us 2 wins. We are also so, so bad with transition spacing. With almost any team in the country, a 2 on 1 with the ball in a guards hands is a guaranteed bucket. For us, it is 50% turnover or 50% weak ass layup attempt that gets comically blocked. I think they are tweaking it a little now to just flat miss the shots, as Irvin and Walton showed off last night.

Joined: 09/21/2009

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LV Sports Bettor

February 29th, 2016 at 2:23 PM ^

Beilein is getting fired.

I bet he's in the top 10% of CBB coaches of safest job.

Beilein is an excellent teacher and first class guy and someone who's won at very high levels here in the past. There's no way Michigan will get rid of him, no way.

Joined: 12/06/2014

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Jimmyisgod

February 29th, 2016 at 7:36 AM ^

It's simple, we need two wins to make the Tourney. Beat Iowa and win 1 game in the BTT or lose to Iowa and win 2 games in the BTT. We are out today, 1-1 probably doesn't get us in and Iowa is dropping like a rock so a win over them isn't as good, they will lost to IU, if they also lose to us they won't be a top 25 team, maybe not top 40.

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cezical

February 29th, 2016 at 7:38 AM ^

left that you are supposed to beat and you make it. Its that simple. An Iowa win would puncj the ticket right away but that game isnt important. Just beat the teams you are supposed to.

Joined: 12/19/2015

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