Grantland: Shane Ryan on CBB Road Games
Pretty fair and interesting analysis of Duke and Miami as well as the chaos in the top half of the B1G. Love this graphic:
This puts top half B1G road records at:
- Indiana: 1-0 (@Michigan, @MSU, @Minnesota remaining)
- Michigan: 1-4 (done)
- Ohio: 0-3 (@Indiana remaining)
- Wisconsin: 1-2 (@MSU remaining)
- Michigan State: 1-2 (@Michigan, @Ohio remaining)
- Minnesota: 0-3 (@Ohio remaining)
Michigan had the toughest schedule against the top half playing all 5 on the road and only getting 3 home matchups. Road wins are hard to come by and I would expect Michigan to be win a share of the B1G crown IF they can protect Crisler. If Indiana or State manages to win 3 road games, they probably win the conference outright, but I doubt that happens.
As bad as the loss in East Lansing was, the haunting loss here is Wisconsin. We had them and a 2-3 road record against this group would be nothing to be ashamed of and would have put us in solid position to win the conference. I still fully expect Michigan to have a shot in the end with 2 weeks to regain some mojo before Michigan State visits Ann Arbor.
February 18th, 2013 at 4:15 PM ^
I think MSU has the toughest schedule against the top half, as they play every one of this group both at home and away. They play ten games against the other top five; we only play eight. We avoid Wisonsin and Minnesota at home and replace them with two bottom tier B1G teams.
February 18th, 2013 at 6:52 PM ^
Sparty got the shortest stick on the scheduling for the strength of the conference this year. If they hold on to the title it will have been an impressive run indeed.
February 18th, 2013 at 4:16 PM ^
We really didn't get lucky with our schedule this year. The only team to miss two of the top 5 at home, and one of only two teams to get all 5 on the road.
I hope when the conference goes to 14 teams (and beyond) they add more conference games, so they get as close to a double round robin as possible, eliminating this inequity.
February 18th, 2013 at 4:18 PM ^
I think they are in discussion of going to a 20 game conference slate.
February 18th, 2013 at 5:40 PM ^
That's a start, but adding two teams and two conference games still means you only play half the conference once (6/13). I would advocate going to 22-24 conference games.
If you look at football, they're going to 9 conference games. That's 75% of the schedule. M plays 31 games this season, and could have fit in more if they had scheduled a non-conference game on the open weekend in January (like they had in recent seasons with Arkansas and UConn). So I'll say 32 games. 75% of that is 24 B1G games.
Obviously, the ADs will complain that they lose 2-3 home games, to which I say, who cares? I think fans are more likely to attend a December home game against a B1G opponent than two games against the directional Michigans, Binghamton, and Arkansas, Michigan's home opponents in December this year.
February 18th, 2013 at 4:37 PM ^
I'd say our 2 point OT win over Ohio State shows that we don't do the greatest at home against the top of the conference. Turns out we played the top of the conference exclusively on the road so far (save 1 game).
Just noticed that they don't list our game @WISC as OT.
February 18th, 2013 at 4:46 PM ^
I'd say that one game doesn't tell us a whole lot about the team in general, especially when it was 1) in the middle of a really tough stretch and 2) without Morgan.
February 18th, 2013 at 9:11 PM ^
So, my post wasn't negative. I was just pointing out that, yes, we have 4 losses, but they're on the road against the toughest teams in the toughest conference in the country. I was moreso lamenting about out schedule.
February 18th, 2013 at 5:38 PM ^
Don't forget the loss at Value City (I just learned this year that's the name of their arena, and I'm overjoyed every time I get to repeat it) was a close one as well.
Blown to bits in EL, but probably should have won in Madison and within 3 at Value City (tee hee). IU was well contested, but a solid loss. Nothing here indicating M is any worse than exactly where they are now.
February 18th, 2013 at 5:15 PM ^
Schedule was harsh this year:
Missed road games against probably the 8th and 11th best teams in the conference
No chance to play Wisconsin or Minnesota at home. Yes, some chance we lose those games relative to missing say Iowa and Illinois, but I'd much take a little bit higher chance of a loss for us in exchange for the opportunity to give other contenders a likely loss.
Play all 5 of the best teams at their place first.
Two biggest home games during spring break.
4 tough games in a row and in a short 11 day period.
"Bye" week this weekday comes in between two home games, and fairly easy ones at that. Whereas Indiana gets a week off between @MN and @M. And MSU gets a week off between @OSU and @M.
No way to make it fair w/o playing a full 22 games but it will still be annoying if Indiana wins the conference by a game or ties for it when they did not have to go to Madison. Especially considering that Ryan has owned Crean. Likewise, it will be annoying if Wisconsin gets a share considering that they did not have to come to Ann Arbor. I'd hate to see Sparty get part of the conference title but at least they will have earned it by being the only other "top" team besides us to play all 5 games on the road.
February 18th, 2013 at 5:19 PM ^
That was an intriguing read. Thanks for sharing that.
Earlier today, I was trying to break up the entire Big Ten into combined records at home versus away, and it came to an overall 143-40 (0.781) at home and 40-56 (0.417) on the road for the conference collectively, which definitely supports his point (and one made here repeatedly) that road wins are precious and few in the Big Ten. As much of the road record is conference play, the difference in combined records is pretty amazing.
February 18th, 2013 at 5:42 PM ^
Yeah, that one is going to hurt for a long time. I've got a feeling that in twenty years, we'll still be grinding our teeth on that one.
February 18th, 2013 at 6:02 PM ^
I don't think any regular-season loss is that bad. Remember, we lost to Wisconsin in a very similar fashion two years ago, and it ended up not mattering at all - we made up for it by beating Minnesota and MSU right after. If we win out, we should be Big Ten champs, and no one will care about our four losses.
Now if we were to lose in the NCAA tournament in a game like that . . . yeah, we'd never forget it.
February 18th, 2013 at 5:50 PM ^
The Wiscy game was the basketball gods' fault. The good thing is that breaks like the bad one Michigan got and the great one Wiscy got seem to even out over time. Michigan still has one coming for the Evan Turner prayer, too.
I wouldn't mind seeing Michigan be the beneficiary of a break like that in the NCAA Tournament.
February 18th, 2013 at 6:15 PM ^
February 18th, 2013 at 8:06 PM ^
February 18th, 2013 at 7:00 PM ^
I don't know what it did to the basketball team, but the Wiscy game was a stake in the heart, at least to me. To put the game into O/T on a hope and a prayer shot from halfcourt at the buzzer had to take the wind out of their sails. That they were in the game while getting mugged more times than I can count without any foul calls in itself was a shocker. Losing to Wiscy just plain sucked, big time.
I didn't expect what happened in East Lansing, but, after the way they lost in Madison, I was leery about the outcome of that game.
Better to have had the down period last week and not in the tournament, right?