GR III waived
Last year's draft was much more stacked than this year and he would have been the 2nd option after Levert where as last year he was # 4.
and gotten hurt or watched his stock plummet as his game failed to evolve. Uncertainty goes both ways.
GRIII would have gone in the first round had he left after his freshman season.
Got a partially guaranteed contract and was drafted. The argument that he had no stock is not only debatable -- it is factually wrong. Anyway, the NBA does not draft off production, they draft off potential.
McGary was projected as a lottery pick. He came back to Michigan, got hurt, earned $0 in salary, got himself banned, fell way lower in the draft than he would have gone before. On top of that he lost an entire year of free agency and nba salary off his career. He lost a lot of money in the process, short-term and long-term. He did not graduate.
That he is successful in the NBA supports the argument that he made a mistake, not disputes it. A guy who isn't an NBA-caliber player (which GR3 may or may not be, but early returns are not positive) -- it doesn't really matter for them when they come out. All they really lose is a college scholarship (which if you come from a rich family like he does isn't something you can't overcome.)
A guy who IS an NBA-caliber player, who will likely have a competitve free agency campaign as soon as his rookie contract expires, like McGary, is someone who lost out by returning to school for an extra year. [At least financially - McGary may have had enough fun where he feels good about the decision, IDK]
Hardaway was in a way better situation in terms of position and what Beilein asked him to do; GRIII does a number of things well, but being an undersized 4 in Beilein's offense wasn't one of them. And there's no promise he would have gotten any better with another year of out-of-place posiitioning and an even younger team. Hell, everyone around here heard about Caris being a lottery lock and now he seems to be slipping, in part due to injury but also, I suspect, in part because his production didn't make an amazing leap when he transitioned to the #1 option.
GRIII could absolutely come back and get his degree any time he wants. But I'm sure he looked at the trajectory of his draft stock (from near-lottery to out of the 1st round) despite showing some overall improvements in his game, knew that Beilein was going to have him continue to play out of position, and made a calculated risk and took a shot at the NBA. Even if he doesn't play for another NBA team in his career, he can still play overseas and collect a decent paycheck.
I thought GRIII should have come back because he didn't seem to have a clear NBA position or dominant skill save for athleticism, which is probably the most common in NBA players. But I don't blame him one bit for looking at the team, where he likely would have been set to play, and saying he'd rather collect half a million dollars and try to get better on an NBA team than play in college another year and, I don't know, injure himself such that his stock would drop even more.
Agree completely. I think the 3 vs 4 is overblown in JB's system. I can, however, see a difference on defense where GRIII was expected to guard bigger forwards, if needed. But there aren't a ton of teams rolling out two 6'10" bigs. So, there...I think this whole issue is slightly overblown.
have the same roles in his offense. Robinson had to play out of position on defense, I think that was an issue with him.
at the college level under great coaching, with a stable structure around you, and, optimally, in a stable program.
Is it a freaking coincidence that Draymond Green is having such success after having four years to make sure his game was tight before he started playing it in the cutthroat world that is the NBA?
This whole idea that you're much better off being a professional to improve your game is something really stupid that has gained far too much traction in the last decade.
Having a solid amateur background is a huge plus, in all sports. See boxing, for example, for all the chuckleheads who have bought this stupid notion that it's not important to actually develop before going pro.
Unless you're an absolute freak - then, you're going to be fine. But unless you are plus against even the NBA level guys (see Brandon Jennings, for example), you're better off with a solid amateur background.
now as opposed to his time at MSU. He has improved a ton in terms of shooting and ability to guard multiple positions which is something he never showed at MSU.
You have more time to improve with trainer, coaches, etc. in the NBA than in NCAA where your time is restricted because of the NCAA rules.
of course his game has grown.
However, your overall post exhibits the slavish devotion to this stupid notion that Michigan fans have bought far too readily: "You have more time to improve with trainer, coaches, etc. in the NBA than in NCAA where your time is restricted because of the NCAA rules."
Yeah? Well guess what. You NEED fucking time and you don't get it if you're not a significant investment for a team or if you're not ready to contribute from day fucking ONE, as Draymond Green was.
I guarantee you Green would have been a failure in the NBA if he had left after his sophomore year.
That's all well and nice that you have all day - you have to be prepared for all of the other things that go along with being a professional, and you need the right situation with a stable coaching staff and a team that has a commitment to youth development. And that's a crapshoot. And one trade that brings in another guy that the team has a stronger commitment to, and suddenly you are on the outside looking in.
The stupid short-sightedness of the nattering fools who seem to infest Ann Arbor - they are giving these guys the wrong idea, almost every time. I've seen enough - unless you have physical attributes that will set you apart (and this usually means you were a top 20 recruit), you best really think twice about going early.
It's all about the second contract, anyway. And sadly, not enough of these Michigan kids are getting to that second contract. Timmy will, and he waited an extra year. Trey will be in the league - and thank goodness he stayed another year and improved his draft stock. Because a Trey drafted in the early second round - that guy might be in serious jeopardy of a team giving up on him. Trey also should have left when he left, because his game was as complete as it was ever going to be, and he had little left to learn.
Mitch was always going to be fine because he is a physical freak. If he can stay healthy, he will definitely get to that big 2nd contract.
Nik struck while the iron was hot, and I can't disagree with that decision, but I worry that for the long term? He may have been better off staying one more year and being more game ready as soon as he hit a roster. I worry that he made a big mistake if his goal was to get that 2nd contract. Which for a guy like Nik should be the goal.
I'm so tired of the stupidity of Michigan fans who - in some pathetic effort to seem more cynical and wise about this - consistently support foolish decisions.
soon, instead of getting solid amateur experience, are always successful. /s
Those guys then have all day to train and it's a fucking disaster.
And btw, the improvement Trey Burke made from the end of his HS season to the time he entered the draft says that time restrictions or not, the kid with the drive to be ultimately successful as a pro is going to log the minutes in the gym he needs, whether it's under the direction of the head coach or not.
This silliness is really starting to piss me off.
Draymond Green was a 2nd round pick and was in the same situation as GRIII but he worked himself into the rotation and became an integral part of the resurgence of GSW.
The main thing is not when you get drafted. It's about getting picked by the right team, coaches, environment. That matters more than getting drafted regardless of the timing of when to declare.
I've talked to a couple of players and they said the same thing. Professional has a huge advantage in player development than college because you can afford to pay for the best training (not necessarily with your basketball coaches) and you have time to hone your games. They also said that NCAA is way too restrictive with regards to contact with the coaches in player development. It's not silliness, it's a fact.
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great, you talked to a couple of guys from a pool of people who are notorious for their sound approach to business decisions and long-term thinking. Excellent.
Draymond Green arrived in the league READY TO PLAY.
Again, if you're not ready to play immediately, the team doesn't have a significant investment in you, or you don't possess the same freakish abilities that made you a top 20 recruit and on the NBA guys radar ever since then, you're in a difficult situation.
In *your* post, you admit how crucial it is to land in the right environment. Well, guess what? That's a crap shoot. And if you came into the league not ready to contribute immediately or not exhibiting basketball talent that multiple teams will not be able to resist taking a flyer on - the wrong situation out of the gate means your career is permanently fucked.
You also mention work ethic. Right. Because we know that work ethic has nothing to do with maturity. And a 4th/5th year senior never has more maturity than a freshman or sophomore who bolts for the draft as fast as they can. And there's no such thing as a talented kid who learns what work ethic and proper practice habits mean by spending 3-4 years under a coaching staff that can impart those lessons. Yeah, that never happens.
It's important to be ready to play, ready with all the right habits the moment you enter the league's orbit.
You talked to a couple of players and you both blew smoke up each other's asses, telling each other what you both wanted to hear. Of course they want to believe that. Play ball all day and get paid, yeah, that's the dream. But it's a fucking pipe dream to believe that it's the right situation for that many guys - it's the exact wrong situation for many of them.
So, nice "fact."
I'd love to do a study of how guys do in getting that second contract based on early entries - but a study that eliminates the top 15-20 talents in each recruiting class - guys who completely throw off results if you include them in an examination.
Not doesn't matter if Draymond Green came into the league ready to play. He was still drafted at 2nd round and rode the bench. He developed his game to the point where he's not the same player as he was at MSU.
Not necessarily, seniors can still have shitty work ethic and there are freshmen and sophomores have superior work ethic.
The guys that I talked to have been in the league for 6 year and other was out within 3 years. Both said the same thing that pro league is superior than college in player development and they said other pro players would agree with their statement. You're the one who is in denial and selfish that Michigan players went to pro early.
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your logic is broken as well (because the rare situation presents, the majority of situations are irrelevant).
You continue to have zero fucking clue as to the lessons drawn from Draymond Green's example (hint, the 2nd round pick who comes in ready to contribute is in a different position than the 2nd round pick who is not NBA-ready (you'll continue to miss this as you appear inordinately thick)).
You also seem to miss that this is not just a question of pure amount of development in your game. It's great when you're rounding that game into form in the NBDL. And I'm not being selfish, my semi-literate compadre. I was all for Trey and Nik leaving. I was opposed to Glenn leaving then and now.
Pro players are always going to think the NBA is better than everything else. Meanwhile, interesting how a guy like Plumlee, who had much less buzz around him, stays in school and emerges as a force in the NBA.
I'm sure Plumlee loves being in the league now, and recognizes that the extra years to make sure his game was NBA-ready before he made that jump have paid off in spades.
You're selfish because you continue to parrot this brand of stupidity, in your quest for a fucking point.
and people using that gif was played many, many months ago.
Is the best 4 Beilein has ever had. The team was more successful in those 2 years than any team Beilein has ever had. GR3 got drafted into the NBA and was offered a 4 year contract (that he turned down as a bet on himself.)
It was a massive success.
We don't know if GR3's pro career will be but his college career was.
If GRIII decides he wants a degree he could drop out of basketball and be back in school next year getting his degree. There is no rule you can't finish your college degree later, lots of athletes do it. Hell Maryland now gaurantees their scholarships for life, any player can come back to school after trying a pro career and finish their free education.
once you've stepped away from college, and that's not just about the money.
Interesting what you are saying about Maryland - that would seem to be an impermissable benefit, if it's guaranteed when you sign with the school (I found an article in the Baltimore Sun that seems to square with this). I wonder what the implications are, in terms of allowable benefits. I'm guessing that it may be that there are no caps on academic benefits.
It depends. If I thought I could make substantially more than that by staying one more year, then I'd have stayed.
wisdom says 'stay' because after taxes he'll have what, $150K and his cork is popped - with no college degree and very little chance he'll ever go back and get one. finish your time and your NBA stock is more than likely better, not worse, and whether you play 20 weeks or 20 years in the NBA, you have your degree to move on with.
but i think he had at least as good of a chance to develop his game - which he needed to do. he was never squat on the defensive side of the ball and as has been discussed the NBA is littered with guys as or more athletic than GRIII, but who are bigger, better shots, etc. and all the while he develops his game in college he's working toward his degree which we all know on average is a huge advantage for the next 50 years of his working life.
for a lot of $. nobody wants you to get run over, or attacked by robots, or zombies, or anything.
there are plenty of other checks available over seas, if he wants to go that route.
Or, maybe its about getting an opportunity to achieve your life long dream? Something .00001% of kids ever get a chance at.
I suppose you didn't take a paying job out of college? I mean, you didn't go to college to make money, did you?
his "life long dream" should have been to be a first round draft pick. Going in the 2nd round so that you can be bench fodder isn't much of a dream. He actually got incredibly lucky to get any guaranteed money at all.
Look at Stauskas. He has done jack crap all year until just recently, yet his position is secure for now because he was a 1st round pick and has a 2-year guaranteed contract. The Kings (or someone) are going to roll with him and try to develop him att least through next season.
Why does everyone assume if he stuck around he would have been a first round lock? There's no gaurentee he improves his draft stock, or worse, he gets injured and drops completely out of the draft. He had a choice of either (1) staying in school and hoping he moves up but risk injury or dropping down, or, (2) taking his shot now knowing he was pretty certain of at least a second round pick and see if he can do it.
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However logic dictates that any year in which you aren't going to be a 1st round pick and you have the POTENTIAL to increase your draft stock, you should take the potential. Because the value of being a first round pick is unbelievably high.
Obviously hindsight is the key here. Maybe he thought he was going in the first round so he took his shot and whiffed. The thing is, once you whiff on your shot, you are about 85% finished with your NBA career. A small number of awesome players crawl they way out after missing on being drafted in the 1st round, but most guys are done.
Basketball desperately needs to go to the hockey/baseball style of drafting where teams can just claim guys and wait for them to properly develop in college before signing them.
I think reality is that we needed him to come back this year more than he needed to come back. Not every college player can be a star at the next level. Basketball gave him the opportunity to play at Michigan, get paid in the NBA, and now he can either be a roster player in the NBA or get paid to live and travel Europe for a few years.
Sounds like a sweet life to me.
He had a 1yr guaranteed contract for just north of 500k. That is more than enough to finish his degree. Stay another year maybe he does not get drafted. Good luck to him.
500k is a lot of capital. if he's savvy, he'll be able to turn that into a nice sum over the years.
edit: although the tax man probably took half of it...anyways, good luck GRIII
I think only $250K was actually guaranteed. And that's pre-tax, of course. Still not shabby for a 21-year-old who (I assume) does not have a family to support, but he'll need to keep drawing paychecks for awhile.
after taxes?
People bandying avbout $500,000, it's embarrassing. We shouldn't tolerate such sloppy thinking.
$140k is probably generous after the agent cut. And that is not a number that sets you up for anything.
In fact, a Michigan degree and a chance to still draw an NBA paycheck >>>>>>>> leaving school without a degree (which makes it very hard to finish), $140k, and life in the NBDL.
There's the euro option, but guys way overplay that possibility. Particularly if your game is not where it could eventually be, it's not a good situation. American players had better be stars over there, and if the next guy getting cut from an NBA roster and plying his wares in Europe is better than you, well, enjoy Zagreb.
that is obviously the risk. that said, if he didn't improve, he would have been about the only starter under JB that didn't improve each year.
wouldn't he also have had confidence in his ability to improve his game if he came back for another year? I'm not going to question his decision, but I doubt very much it was made because he feared his draft stock would drop. He had just seen how Hardaway benefitted by coming back.