Good Article on Michigan Recruiting

Submitted by Adrian on

Heres a good article I found this morning talking about how stars dont really mean that much. I know we already knew that but whats interesting is that it has all of our current startups and their rank when they first joined Michigan

 

http://www.annarbor.com/sports/um-football/michigan-football-team-to-ink-top-rated-class-but-dont-put-too-much-stock-in-the-rankings/

BubbaT33

February 1st, 2012 at 8:49 AM ^

As soon as we signed him last year and I watched the video . . . my immediate prediction was an All Big Ten LB by time he leaves.  He likes to hit . . . smart kid!  He reminded me of the guy out of Hudsonville that played QB and LB that ended up at CMU (Ray Bentley).  You can not measure somethings with stars . . .

oakapple

February 1st, 2012 at 8:51 AM ^

It says: “... it's important to remember that, most of the time, analysts are right.” In other words, the stars mean an awful lot.

The article goes on to point out that, “...they also miss on guys. Every year.” Of course they do. But it has been demonstrated again and again, that high recruiting rankings are correlated with every measure of success you can measure. Correlation doesn’t mean “can’t miss,” but the stars are exceedingly reliable.

The article mentions that Michigan’s 2011 defense “featured four starters who either were ranked in the bottom quarter of their recruiting class, or not at all.” Bear in mind, that ALSO means it featured seven starters, i.e., a substantial majority, who were NOT sleepers.

Sleepers are the exception, though it is great when you find one.

joegeo

February 1st, 2012 at 9:18 AM ^

Sure 7/11 weren't sleepers, but you defined sleepers as being as being ranked in the bottom quarter of their recruiting class (or unranked).   That means you've got a group comprising 25% of the team... the least talented 1/4 by scout rankings... taking 36% of the starting spots.

Yes, the substantial majority of starters aren't sleepers, but that's only because by your definition, the substantial majority of the players aren't sleeprs.

michiganfanforlife

February 1st, 2012 at 9:25 AM ^

of the stars not meaning everything is Miami's recruiting before Shannon arrived.The staff fired their scouts and recruited only the highly rated guys. They thought the services could do all the work for them and they could spend more time just talking them into coming to the school. If you look at how high they rated a few years ago they were up there every year. They also sucked donkey balls during that time.

You have to remember the services are all people who do not scout professionally.  It's like if you or I went all over the country looking at football prospects. Some people would stand out and others wouldn't. The other gigantic elephant in the room is there is no distinction between styles of play. A good two gapping zero technique DT isn't necessarily a good fit in a 4-3. Just like a really good small slot reciever could be perfect for a spread attack, but not very effective in a pro style offense. There are so many factors the stars don't even begin to account for, it's silly to put too much stock in them. If these guys were so good at scouting, the best Div 1 teams would pay them for it.

Mr Miggle

February 1st, 2012 at 10:35 AM ^

Miami fired their scouts? I thought they were just accused of being lazy. Does Michigan hire a staff of professional scouts?

You have to remember the services are all people who do not scout professionally. It's like if you or I went all over the country looking at football prospects.

That's just sounds ridiculous. Rivals, Scout and, ESPN aren't hiring random fans off of message boards to do their talent evaluations. It's a very competitive business and they generally do a good job. The people they hire are actually working as professional scouts. They may not have the background of the typical NFL scout, but those guy's judgments are also far from foolproof. That despite scouting a smaller group of players and knowing exactly what their team is looking for. 

 

True Blue Grit

February 1st, 2012 at 11:36 AM ^

But the fact is, a team CAN win a National Title without having 4 and 5 star guys at every position.  Coaching up kids who have intelligence and desire can make a huge difference.  Desmond Morgan is a great example of this, although I think he also has good athletic ability too - not elite, but good.  I'm no football talent expert, but you could watch films of Morgan in H.S. and it was obvious he had talent.  This is why coaches need to really put an emphasis on recruiting their own backyards.  There are often a lot of diamonds in the rough out there.  Another good example is the Mathieu kid at LSU, who was a 3* high school player.