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Go for it on 4th down

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November 16th, 2011 at 7:02 PM
#1
river-z
Joined: 09/19/2010
MGoPoints: 166
Go for it on 4th down

The article at the link makes 4 points about the hazards of decision-making in football.  The study used data from the NFL, but it's definitely relevant to the college game.  

In particular, it seems relevant discussion on MGoBlog about:

1. going for it on 4th down (do it!)

2. whether it helps the team to fire the coach (not really, but there needs to be a GERG exception, IMO)

3. winning with someone else's talent (WOO! go Brady, Borges, and Mattison)

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/11/4-things-the-nfl-can...

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November 16th, 2011 at 7:14 PM
#2
mGrowOld
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Joined: 10/04/2010
MGoPoints: 111768
WTF?

WTF?

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November 16th, 2011 at 7:12 PM
#3
LSAClassOf2000
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Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 81402
Going For It On 4th And 1

Field position? The article fails to give specifics on field position, what sort of plays have succeeded in the game to date, etc...

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November 16th, 2011 at 7:16 PM
(Reply to #3) #4
2plankr
Joined: 03/13/2009
MGoPoints: -433
???

Its a synopsis, but he does include

"If a team was on its own side of the field and needed four yards or less for a first down, going for it was the right move. At the opponent's five yard line, the chance of going for it and scoring a touchdown was more valuable than the guaranteed points from a field goal."

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November 16th, 2011 at 7:21 PM
(Reply to #5) #5
LSAClassOf2000
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Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 81402
Read It Again...

....and saw that. These are the sorts of things you miss when your kids suddenly want chicken nuggets. 

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November 16th, 2011 at 9:23 PM
(Reply to #7) #6
ryebreadboy
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Joined: 12/02/2010
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I want chicken nuggets.

I want chicken nuggets.

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November 16th, 2011 at 7:13 PM
#7
turd ferguson
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Joined: 12/09/2009
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posted from iPhone

I've felt bad for Mike Smith of the Falcons this week. IMHO, that was exactly the right decision and he just got burned by bad luck.

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November 16th, 2011 at 7:18 PM
(Reply to #4) #8
2plankr
Joined: 03/13/2009
MGoPoints: -433
Unbelievable how all the

Unbelievable how all the talking heads say "i don't care what the statistics say"

Yeah, thats why youre in the studio and not on the sideline

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November 16th, 2011 at 7:24 PM
(Reply to #6) #9
turd ferguson
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posted from iPhone

I share your frustration, but I'm not sure that mentality keeps guys off the sideline. Those views are par for the course.

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November 16th, 2011 at 7:42 PM
(Reply to #6) #10
bo_lives
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Joined: 04/10/2011
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Judging by the number of statisticians on our sideline...

I really don't think having a good grasp of statsitics is a pre-requisite to coaching football. Les Miles doesn't really seem like a guy who took Stats 400 at U-M.

But this is an old point regarding a very tired old topic. Nothing new in this article at all.

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November 16th, 2011 at 8:33 PM
(Reply to #10) #11
2plankr
Joined: 03/13/2009
MGoPoints: -433
I tend to disagree.  He may

I tend to disagree.  He may not know a thing about statistics, but his decisions tend to maximize expected value.

Now he may not know how to read a digital clock, but however he got his "feel" for when to go for it, it aligns pretty well with the statistics

Likewise I have no idea how much Hoke understands the numbers behind it, but he clearly seems to know what works in this regard

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November 16th, 2011 at 8:38 PM
(Reply to #22) #12
turd ferguson
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Joined: 12/09/2009
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posted from iPhone

Sometimes with Miles. There was a big-time game a few years ago (can't remember which one) in which I thought his timeout usage was the worst I've ever seen from a high-profile coach. He's a gambler, which tends to pay off, but he's still a disaster when there's actual thinking required.

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November 16th, 2011 at 8:14 PM
(Reply to #6) #13
umchicago
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Joined: 02/05/2009
MGoPoints: 16168
Disagree

in general, i like being aggressive on 4th down.  in the falcons case, though, it was sudden death OT and missing that conversion puts the opposition in FG range already.  if Atl was another 10 yds downfield, i wouldn't have a problem with that decision, as the opposition would need to get a first down to get into field goal range.

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November 16th, 2011 at 8:22 PM
(Reply to #19) #14
BraveWolverine730
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Joined: 09/21/2009
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How many times can you punt

How many times can you punt to Drew Brees with a below averge pass defense and expect to hold them? Especially since you have an above average rushing attack against a poor rush defese.  I feel statistically it would be backed up as close to 50-50, but the intangibles of the scenario in my opinion push it to going for it,. 

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November 17th, 2011 at 12:25 AM
(Reply to #19) #15
treetown
Joined: 11/10/2010
MGoPoints: 2240
Exactly

It is always good to see smarter and better stats used in sports, but game context has to matter.

Why not analyze going for 4th down in the same "red zone" fashion as the regular offense?

The risk of turning over the ball on 4th down when there is at least 50 yards to your own goal line probably makes sense if your defense is pretty good. Most teams can't reliably drive 50 yards every time. Game context - time remaining, score and situation (OT) clearly all can affect these calculations.

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November 16th, 2011 at 7:40 PM
(Reply to #4) #16
BraveWolverine730
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Falcons fan here

I absolutely loved that move and gives me even more confidence he'll give us the best chance to win in any given game. He also went for it on a 4th and 2 or 3 against the Lions that I thought was pretty big in us winning that game. 

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November 16th, 2011 at 10:44 PM
(Reply to #12) #17
ATLWolverine
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MGoPoints: 1658
Agreed

It was risky, but given Brees' skill and perhaps other things we are not privy to (Smith feeling his defense was sagging, having used that same power play to success earlier or throughout the season, etc.) I don't see what the uproar is about.

Again, if Falcons convert, he's a genius-- but he didn't, so every forum-poster and sportswriter snipes at him until the next game or succesful gutsy call. Football!

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November 16th, 2011 at 8:08 PM
(Reply to #4) #18
BiSB
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Joined: 08/15/2009
MGoPoints: 44839
Well...

You can make a good decision to go, and still make a bad play call.

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November 16th, 2011 at 8:11 PM
(Reply to #17) #19
LSAClassOf2000
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Joined: 01/07/2011
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Unless You're Ron Zook...

....in which case, it's, "BAHAMAS VACATION.....NO WHAMMIES....NO WHAMMIES......STOP!"

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November 16th, 2011 at 10:46 PM
(Reply to #17) #20
ATLWolverine
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Joined: 02/16/2009
MGoPoints: 1658
What was bad about it?

Grantland has a good take on it, IMO

New Orleans has an abysmal power run defense, Atlanta had converted a 4th down on a Turner run earlier in the game, and was racking up yards on the ground at a fair clip throughout the game.

Power run with Turner seems reasonable to me, but I guess it's all about the wins, baby.

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November 16th, 2011 at 7:27 PM
#21
orobs
Joined: 10/03/2010
MGoPoints: 3205
you felt compelled to share

you felt compelled to share this article because......?

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November 16th, 2011 at 7:35 PM
#22
AAB
Joined: 01/14/2009
MGoPoints: 7940
I mean

Brian's been citing Romer for years now.  

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November 16th, 2011 at 7:49 PM
(Reply to #11) #23
turd ferguson
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Joined: 12/09/2009
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I think it tends to be

I think it tends to be misapplied around here.  The Romer paper - which, I think has problems, but that's for another day - is very good for telling us whether, across the board, coaches are too conservative, aggressive, etc.  It's not very useful in determining whether a particular decision in a particular game was right or wrong.

Around here, people will run some numbers and then declare a Michigan decision "right" or "wrong."  That's an inappropriate use of statistics.  The circumstances of the situation have massive effects on the relevant probabilities.  For example, quality of offense, quality of defense, weather, quality of plays available, injury/fatigue, and so many other context-specific things make it almost impossible to declare a decision right or wrong when it's relatively close in the expected value numbers.

I thought Mike Smith made the right move in that Falcons-Saints game.  If the same situation had arisen in the LSU-Alabama game, I probably would have felt differently.

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November 16th, 2011 at 7:52 PM
(Reply to #13) #24
AAB
Joined: 01/14/2009
MGoPoints: 7940
I disagree

Coaches are departing so far from what EV would dictate that it would take a fairly extreme situation (say, Penn State against Alabama on a 3rd and 8 from its own 42, or something) for me to conclude that conventional wisdom is more correct than Romer.  

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November 16th, 2011 at 7:57 PM
(Reply to #14) #25
turd ferguson
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Joined: 12/09/2009
MGoPoints: 26489
Our views are probably pretty

Our views are probably pretty close on this.  Here's where I'm at:

The starting point for what's the right decision should be something like what's in the Romer paper.  In other words, if you have a median offense against a median defense in median weather with median fatigue... go with Romer.  I think the starting point that people use (conventional wisdom) is much too conservative.  Still, there's enormous context-specific variation that needs to be accounted for in order to intelligently play the expected value game in a particular situation.  I think that people around here tend to be very good at understanding the starting point and not as good at understanding the relevance of context.  (Note that that means that "people around here" are just as likely to be too conservative, in my view, as too aggressive.)

I'm definitely not arguing that conventional wisdom > Romer.

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November 16th, 2011 at 8:03 PM
(Reply to #15) #26
AAB
Joined: 01/14/2009
MGoPoints: 7940
I don't disagree with that

but here's where I'm at:

For the most part, people (including Brian) aren't really complaining about marginal decisions where, according to Romer, going for it on 4th and fairly long from your own 38 or whatever might be slightly +EV.  People are like "oh my god stop punting on 4th and 2 from your opponent's 45, especially when you're down a touchdown in the 4th quarter."  

To use a poker analogy, coaches, by and large, aren't being criticized for failing to make marginal but probably +EV calls with Q7 when their opponent is shoving all in with a really huge range of hands.  It's more like the vast majority of coaches are folding pocket Jacks when they have 10 big blinds.  There's basically no set of circumstances where that decision is the correct one.  

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November 16th, 2011 at 8:14 PM
(Reply to #16) #27
turd ferguson
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Joined: 12/09/2009
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No disagreement here.  The

No disagreement here.  The marginal cases are the more interesting ones to me, but you're right that most of the screaming is completely justified because the decisions are so outrageously conservative.

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November 16th, 2011 at 9:26 PM
(Reply to #13) #28
ryebreadboy
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Joined: 12/02/2010
MGoPoints: 5894
Easy! It's the right

Easy!

It's the right decision if I agree with it.

It's not if I don't.

/99%ofsportsfans.

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November 17th, 2011 at 1:07 PM
(Reply to #26) #29
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
If it works, it's

If it works, it's "gutsy."

If it doesn't work, it's "boneheaded."

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November 16th, 2011 at 9:21 PM
#30
alanmfrench
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Joined: 06/23/2010
MGoPoints: 1987
i would

love to see a div 1 program adopt a go for it on every 4th down no matter what philosophy. i think it would make for some really interesting games. youre offense would have to be good though or it would just be ridiculous.

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November 16th, 2011 at 10:38 PM
(Reply to #24) #31
ATLWolverine
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Joined: 02/16/2009
MGoPoints: 1658
Interesting article about HS offensive guru

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/scorecasting/09/15/kelley.pulaski/index.html

He also refuses to return punts because the risk of getting stripped (in HS at least) is apparently too high to justify the sparse return yards generated.

Gus Malzahan started as a zany offensive-minded HS coach once  upon a time and a lot of his spread precepts are gaining traction in Div. 1. Who knows, your wish could come true sooner than you think

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November 16th, 2011 at 10:16 PM
#32
LB
LB's picture
Joined: 09/26/2009
MGoPoints: 10451
If they were really football guru's, they would have

understood and related the MGoLiveBlog's ability to will interceptions. Any stats that do not take that into account can't possibly be taken seriously.

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