Game situation: down 4, inside own 10, about 5:00 to go...
That was Nebraska's situation against Minny yesterday when they reached 4th down and medium (4 to go?). Their options:
-Punt (which they did) and hope to flip the field position. NU had all of its timeouts, I believe.
-Go for it and hope to keep the ball
-Fake punt: is this a higher-percentage play than just lining up?
-Take the safety and make it a 6-point game, giving you a kickoff instead of a punt
What would you do?
(Edited to add fake punt option.)
October 28th, 2013 at 3:37 PM ^
Interesting. I guess a follow-up question would be, do punters shank more frequently when they're punting out of their own end zone and are in a rush to get it off? Their punter did shank it, as it turned out, but I don't know if that was a major fluke for him or not.
October 28th, 2013 at 1:17 PM ^
I felt this way even before the math analysis in the post above but more strongly after it.
You punt.
You are too deep in your own territory to go for it. Even if you make it, you've still got too far to go to make it worth the risk. Taking the safety is a terrible idea because now a FG ends the game. So the only play is to punt and hope your D can hold the other team to a FG or less before the clock runs out and that you get the ball back with enough time to go score a TD.
The ONLY other call I would consider is a fake punt option that could be called at the line if the defense is caught napping or out of position for it. But that would have to be a pre-snap call by a player I really trusted.
October 28th, 2013 at 1:36 PM ^
(which I think was the correct call, despite the shank), the next question is: once Minnesota drove down near the goal line, should Nebraska have let them score, rather than holding them for (I think) a couple of downs and wasting the clock before Minnesota scored the inevitable touchdown?
October 28th, 2013 at 3:35 PM ^
I think you've got to play defense there. I would imagine having the ball down seven with a minute to go gives you better odds than having it with say, 3 minutes left down 11.