Gambling Land: Early line, Michigan -3 over UCONN
The Golden Nugget has their first college football lines released. Here's a look at where Michigan stacks up early:
Date | Favored | Line | Underdog | Home |
---|---|---|---|---|
9/4 | Michigan | -3 | UCONN | Michigan |
9/11 | Notre Dame | -7 | Michigan | Notre Dame |
10/9 | Michigan | -3 | Michigan St. | Michigan |
10/16 | Iowa | -3 | Michigan | Michigan |
10/30 | Penn State | -10 | Michigan | Penn State |
11/13 | Michigan | PICK | Purdue | Purdue |
11/20 | Wisconsin | -4 | Michigan | Michigan |
11/27 | Ohio State | -13.5 | Michigan | Ohio State |
Looks like Michigan is considered equal to UCONN and Michigan State this year, slightly better than Purdue. I'd say that sounds fair based on recent history.
Discuss.
It was perhaps meaningful to compare past UM teams to the current UM team until January 2, 2008. Until then the past UM teams were similar enough under a common lineage (or at least a common style) of coaches to allow for comparison and prediction. Those teams, however, are too dissimilar to the UM teams since 2008. It's nice sometimes to look back at the past, but, since 2008, it helps us very little to predict the future.
pretty much how all gamblers look at trends. Obviously, they are not guaranteed to win BIG MONEY for you, but if a trend holds up over many games or a long time period, it is usually a good thing to know.
You'll notice jamiemac constantly refers to trends like this (he even did it in this post re: Notre Dame just a few posts up from mine) because they are a gambling man's stock in trade.
My argument is that you have to assume independence between 2007 and 2008 and forward. I don't care who you are or what you do. Whether jamiemac does nor not, I would be very surprised if the Vegas guys used pre-2008 to predict 2010. And if they do, I would put no stock in it. There is just some point when qualitative reasoning and logic have to prevail.
... that you could have retired a millionaire betting Michigan to NOT cover the spread over the Lloyd years.
But that was when they were favored most of the time.
I will scream if we lose to ND and that peripatetic asshole Brian Kelly.
I like us against UConn, ND, PSU, and Purdue, but not Iowa and Wisconsin. I'm not sure about the MSU game yet.
against either Iowa or Wisconsin, but think we will lose to PSU and expect a close game at Purdue.
All the people who said ND isn't crap, if we lose to them, if they'll be on the "Oh, ND had all this returning talent for the coach to use" bandwagon then, to excuse Rich. And conversely, if we wax them, if anyone who thought they were bringing back a juggernaut will downplay the victory because "he hasn't got his system in yet".
a victory for UM in South Bend next season, but I do think it will be a close game (3-4 win by ND IMO).
Brian Kelly is a very good coach and will have ND back to winning 10 games a year pretty soon (possibly as soon as 2011), but he is not a miracle worker and I think ND will win 7...maybe 8 games next season.