My argument is that you have to assume independence between 2007 and 2008 and forward. I don't care who you are or what you do. Whether jamiemac does nor not, I would be very surprised if the Vegas guys used pre-2008 to predict 2010. And if they do, I would put no stock in it. There is just some point when qualitative reasoning and logic have to prevail.
chance of bowl: 13.6%