None of those jump out at me as being way off base. Hopefully as the season goes on M will look better, but based on what we know now they seem pretty fair lines.
Gambling Land: Early line, Michigan -3 over UCONN
I'm not sure if I agree with the -7 line on Notre Dame. Losing valuable members of their offense, along with the installation of a new coach, I'm not sure if the line should be that heavily tilted in their favor.
As far as I'm concerned, Clausen was the ND team last year. They had no defense and a fairly high-powered offense that revolved around him. With him gone, they're screwed (for 1 season at least).
Floyd is coming back, but without a QB to get it to him, he won't make nearly as much of an impact.
Weis is no longer coaching ND.
Yes, but there's no way Kelly can get his pieces in place before Sept. 11, especially after losing their 2 best players. 2011 may be scary but not 2010.
I watched Brian Kelly coach at my alma mater. It seems to me he's more dangerous when he doesn't have his players. He had a tendancy towards unnecessary risk the longer he was in Mt. Pleasant.
Edit: Those bad risks came in big games. See: vs. Matt Ryan led BC team.
Brian Kelly is an excellent coach. He is also VERY good at turning programs around. I watched Brian Kelly coach when he was at DII GVSU and his teams would consistently put up 50+ pts and won lots of games. Then he went to CMU and turned the program from an average MAC team to a good MAC team. Then he went to Cinci and took a very average Cinci team (7-5 previous year) and turned them into a title contender. With the recruits that ND has, they will be good. @Blue-Chip is right--he does well even without tons of talent
I agree that Brian Kelly has had a lot of success where he's coached, but I think you're overstating things a bit. Not with CMU or Cinci have we seen what he's really made of as a coach, simply because he wasn't there very long. GVSU continued winning at the same pace after he left, and CMU actually had better seasons after he left. Cincinnati was on their way to winning before he got there (Dantonio, love him or hate him, is actually the one who "turned around" that program, Kelly just continued it).
And at both CMU and Cinci, BK never really had a quality win. He did a pretty good job in his mediocre conference when there wasn't really another decent team in the league, and got smoked when he played a BCS team out of conference (the lone exception is Oregon State, who was 8-5 in a pretty weak conference).
I see Brian Kelly this way - he's like a college student who went to WMU, took pretty easy classes and got all A's. He then transferred to MSU, took pretty easy classes again, and got all A's. Now he has transferred to UM and is majoring in ChemE. Will he do well? Some people will say "of course he will, he's always gotten A's before." Other people will say, "yeah, but never in anything difficult." Bottom line, he's in for a major challenge, and his past work isn't enough to say he'll definitely do well, or definitely fail.
I don't think I made my point very well. I don't think Brian Kelly is a great coach. From seeing him up close, he is arrogant and takes unnecessary chances. This leads to backfires and giving opponents great opportunity. However, when he's working with someone elses teams, he tends to stay within the realm of what his players are capable of. With what's left at ND, that makes them dangerous this year.
I understand what you're saying, but Kelly's record doesn't back this claim up. His first year at a school tends to be his worst. At CMU he went 4-7, 6-5 and 9-4. At UC he went 10-3, 11-3 and 12-0. It seems that he is, in fact, most dangerous when he has his own recruits in the system.
The record increases because he is also a strong recruiter, and the players get better. I can't speak to Cincy, but I watched him out think himself in that last year at Central. It was stylistically similar to Charlie calling for a deep pass when they needed a couple yards to run out the clock in the 09 Michigan game. I just don't think he'll make that type of mistake in the early part of his tenure.
I don't really think that increase in wins is a reflection on him winning with his recruits, since at both places, the first class of "his" recruits were either sophomores or redshirt freshman during his last season, not exactly the guys leading the team.
so, you are saying that Kelly is an offensive innovator who has had the benefit of coaching at lower level conferences and the Big East and now that he is moving on to the big time, things aren't going to be easy for him?
Couldn't the last paragraph be a description of Rich Rod too? Maybe the previous paragraph differentiates that with the "quality wins", but Kelly did beat West Virginia. Unless you're saying Rich left the cupboard bare.
Not saying Rich hasn't accomplished anything either...but I just find it funny when they're a sliding scale for people who have done similar things based on whether we like them or not.
To reply to you and Tripp above, I think the two situations with RR and BK are different. One, RR's WVU team often won bowl games, and against quality teams. WVU won bowl games the last 3 years he was there against Georgia, GT, and Oklahoma (even though he didn't coach against OU, it was his team that got to, and won, that game). WVU tied for a conference title before VT, BC and Miami left, too.
But the biggest difference is that RR has shown he can build, and maintain, a program. Kelly really hasn't, unless you count GVSU. BK has spent most of the last 6 years winning with players he didn't recruit, and hasn't shown he can win at a high level for more than 2 years at a time. Take a look at their resumes, outside of the conference they last coached in, BK and RR don't have that similar of resumes.
That may be a first for this site.
(And did you really do an analysis of each's out of conference records, or just bowl games?).
You do realize that Crist was a 5* recruit, right?
But the kid has thrown 20 passes in his college career. I'm fine with that.
The QB position is very shaky for ND.
not really, there is one guy, then a walkon and 3 freshmen pretty well defined situation really
In that case, it would be a shame if Crist wasn't good to go for the UM game this year. I'm sure you guys will be fine without him.
Oh don't worry, he is ahead of schedule, not even in a brace anymore I believe
Henne had thrown 0 college passes before leading Michigan to a 9-win season.
Chad Henne had one of the best seasons a freshman starter has ever had at QB. Let's not throw out outliers to make a points.
Yes, but he was out all year after a torn ACL. Not an easy injury to come right back from, especially for a QB. Also, not so sure I would bet on a team with a frosh QB, even a 5*. Remember's Jimmah's first year?
Crist is not a freshman.
Also, he didn't miss all season; he got injured in the Washington State game.
Finally, I reiterate, to hell with Notre Dame.
I remember watching him throw a touchdown in the US Army game to (!) Michael Floyd who was (at least on that play) abusing little Boo Boo.
Dude, don't sleep on ND. The rhetoric that Kelly won't have his guys in place is utter nonsense to me. Are we really to beleive that he wouldn't recruit Dane Crist, Michael Floyd, Kyle Rudolph, and a bunch of 4 and 5 star O-linemen? Those players fit Kelly's offense like a tailor made glove lined with memory foam.
Also, Crist is a first year starter but he's a RS-So and a 5 star recruit to boot. Remember how well Chad Henne did? Tell me why Crist won't be able to at least match that. Floyd is every bit the player that Braylon was in Henne's first year. Kelly's offense is known for making the QB reads very simple which is why so many different players can succeed (like last year and the year before). I ginned up a little something a few weeks back that might open your eyes as to how Crist can perform this year.
The only thing that might affect Crist is the fact that he's coming off of injury; but I'm not counting on that.
Finally, to hell with Notre Dame.
I agree that Crist, if healthy, could be good. I highly doubt he will be as good as Clausen though because Clausen had two years starting before last year, and Crist has considerably less experience.
But saying that Floyd is a good as Braylon is going a bit far. Braylon won the Biletnikoff award that year. Henne also had Mike Hart, who I believe was better than any running back ND has, and Jason Avant and Steve Breaston, who are better than any # 2 wr ND has. So Henne having a good year with little experience does not compare directly to Crist. Finally, U of M's defense was better that year than ND's defense will be this coming year.
We beat ND last year and lost less than they did. It will be close but I think a touchdown is too much for ND. I am predicting a straight up win for Michigan.
I think I need a room with Notre Dame. Thanks a lot! To pre-reiterate, to hell with Notre Dame.
Clausen would have been a lot better his Freshman year if he had anyone supporting him. ND's offense only had something like 3 starters returning that year.
As for Floyd, fire up the stake, I actually think he might be better than Braylon. Dude was unstoppable until he got injured. If he had been in for the whole game agaisnt us last year, I bet they win. Take a look at Braylon ('02-'03) versus Floyd ('08-'09). Braylon played in 26 games, Floyd in 18 so Edwards' Totals are higher but the per game numbers are virtually identical (edge Braylon). Those were Braylon's Sophomore and Junior years as opposed to Floyd's freshman and sophomore years. If you compare year to year, Floyd blows Braylon away. Plus, he rocks a mohawk.
Armando Allen is a useful player at RB. But, again we're talking spread here not pro-style. Crist doesn't need a Mike Hart per se.
I won't argue the Defensive point because I agree. They have some players back but, A) they're switching systems, again, B) they were terrible last year, and C) Kelly's team have been pretty tepid defensively.
I'm not saying that we will lose, only that the whole new system + new QB = crappy offense equation is hogwash in my book. I think the game is a shootout and hopefully our defense is able to slow them down enough for our O to get it done. The over/under on this game should be 80+, 'cause, you know, I'm a vegas line adjuster...not really.
Finally, to reiterate yet again, to hell with Notre Dame.
Yes, Floyd is good, but we'll have to just agree to disagree here.
Other than that, I think you are right and it will be close, hence, the -7 seems a bit much. But I am definetely not saying ND will be easy. I think their offense will get better as the year goes on too. I just hope they don't have it clicking yet.
You're conveniently ignoring the fact that Notre Dame has historically been a bunch of fucking pussies.
Remember how well Chad Henne did? Tell me why Crist won't be able to at least match that.
"At least match?" Henne's 2004 season was outstanding. You're acting like it was pedestrian. Most first-year starters do not complete over 60% of their passes for 2,700 yards and 25 TDs. Henne did NOT perform like an average first-year starter.
Dude, don't mistake my respect for Crist's potential with disrespect for Chad Henne's performance.
But it's important to note that Henne's freshman year was outstanding for a true freshman. The fact is that he had a lot of help that most first year starters don't have. Do you know what Matt Barkley's (USC) freshman stats were? EXACTLY like Chad Henne's.
Terrelle Pryor had a better rating than Henne did as a freshman and also completed 60% of his passes. His yardage total was lower because Tressel only let Pryor throw 165 times. In fact, on a per attempt basis Barkley and Pryor threw for more yards than Henne did.
That's three 5-start, true freshman QBs, with solid teams around them performing at about the same level. It seems like Henne performed exactly like we should expect under those particular circumstances; the rarity we observed was the in the convergence of the circumstances not in the level of performance.
Henne's 25 TDs probably had a little to do with Bralyon F. Edwards which was a resource that Barkley and Pryor did not have. But Crist does and, oh yeah, Michael Floyd is at least as good as Braylon Edwards.
Defense, running back, offensive line, Floyd is not Edwards....take your pick.
Saying Floyd is not Edwards doesn't make it true, let's hear some explanation.
Also, I'm not talking about ND's overall prospects, only the offense and specifically Dayne Crist. I've shown my reasoning through this thread.
Time will tell.
You do realize that Armando Allen is actually a pretty good running back, don't you? He had almost 700 yards last year and sat out 4 games. He averaged 4.9 YPC last year and he only dropped below 4 in one game where he only had 12 carries. Not to mention he is a decent receiver out of the backfield, which he will be more often this year. If anything I would expect A break out year from him as he seems to fit this system better than the last.
And the defense won't have any effect on how Crist plays. The only thing it might do is give Crist more opportunities to boost his numbers. It might affect the number of wins but number of wins is not how you define a player's performance; it's how you define a team's performance.
If you don't think there is a good chance that Crist has a good to great year this year, you are being ignorant.
And we win the games we are favored to win (+ the other games not listed) we would go 7-5? I can see that happening but man would I be bummed about that outcome. I really, really, really am hoping for 8-4 this year. That would restore my faith in the RichRod era.
We will win two of Iowa, Penn State, Notre Dame. Go Blue! 9-3.
recently, but a "pick 'em" vs. Purdue? I would feel very comfortable putting a substantial amount of money on Michigan in that game.
Edit: I realize the problem with using a term like "substantial." For my wife, a substantial gambling loss is anything over 6 dollars. For me, the word means the absolute highest amount I can lose while still hiding the losses from her.
We lost to Purdue last year. At home. With Brandon Graham. And Donovan Warren. This year we play a Purdue team that, while not much better, didn't lose any big names (not that they had any to lose). At Purdue. Without Brandon Graham. And without Donovan Warren.
If I were an impartial Vegas book maker, I would either have this game as a pick 'em or paybe even Purdue by a slim margain.
I understand that when a line is set, it is in no way a prediction. It's an arbitrary line that is drawn leaving approximately 50% of the gamblers on each side. So I agree with your point on the "impartial Vegas book maker" kind of hedging on this one.
I personally think that when the Purdue game week is here, Michigan will be giving them points. As such, if I could grab that line right now as a "pick 'em," I would without hesitation.
They have beaten us the last two years. But they needed trick plays and luck both times. I think their luck finally runs out in 2010. I see what the bookies are doing, but Michigan will win that game by two touchdowns.
You might want to re-interpret "needed trick plays" to "could successfully perform trick plays." Dont fault a team that has the skill to implement a trick play or few (e.g., that team in Idaho). I dont think you would fault Michigan if they ran everything smooth enough the last couple years to do the same. Also, the meme that we lost such and such game due to luck is outright blind homerism. It just really sounds weak.
uggh, rewatched the M vs. Purdue on BTN last week. Painful. Up 14 at the half, Tate turns over ball in our red zone, onside kick, just tons of unimaginable mistakes. To me, that was the most disappointing game last year. An easy win that ended up embarassing us. Hopefully a year of experience and togetherness corrects these blunders. That said, we should win easily given our talent and Purdue is also testing a new QB.
Marve is not a new QB, he was Mr. Football in florida, started most of That Miami's game, has spent a year in W. Lafayette in the system. he is not a 18 year old farm kid.
Purdue owned my life in 2009 and I well never bet against them again. I took ND over Purdue by 7 last year and lost. I bet Ohio State by 14 over Purdue last year and lost. I bought tickets for Michigan against Purdue last year and lost. Furthermore, I pray that Danny Hope loses every single game next year for the sorry sh*t he pulled after the Michigan game last year with Rodriguez.
Sorry for the Purdue rant.
I haven't wanted Michigan to beat a non-rival conference opponent more since Iowa in 2004.
When I see Hope, I can't help but think of lines that Sgt. Hartman had in Full Metal Jacket. Most appropriate being "I didn't know they stacked shit so high."
Michigan against ND, Penn State, and Purdue, but I'd take Wisconsin and Iowa over Michigan.
If I had any money. Which I don't.
I'm not getting the -10 line for Penn State. That one might be worth betting the spread on. Its going to be our offense against their defense - I'm thinking closer than 10 points. ND too maybe, but people seem to be betting that Weiss was a horrible coach of really good players ...
Penn State's offense doesn't project to be world-beating this year. They will win a lot of games, but I don't know if that translates to covering larger spreads. They're gonna win their games 13-6, not 42-30
Charlie was a horrible coach of really good players. Kelly, on the other hand, is a really good coach, but with less good players.
In my view, ND lost the majority of their offense and is going through something of an offensive overhaul, so even with Kelly's coaching, I doubt that their offense will be solid by week 2. ND's defense was never good in the first place. So, yeah, I don't really get the ND(-7).
I agree maizenbluenc. PSU game will be much closer than -10. PSU has a young, unproven qb. I wouldn't be surprised at all if mich WINS that game. PSU might have a good defense but if mich scores at least 24 points I don't see their offense scoring beyond 21 points. All mich has to do is stop Evan Royster. ND -7 is too much also. I think either mich will blow out ND, yes blow out, or ND could win a nail biter. It's all about how much Kelly can implement his system by kick off. I don't think ND will be ready. ND will start to get better midseason. "To hell with ND!"
10 point dogs to PSU breaking in a new, untested QB at Happy Valley?! I see that line coming down a bit. If I had any money, I'd grab that game and laugh when it's UM +3.5 on game day.
WTF with ND line?! I'll take 7 points on the road against a team with many new faces, including the corch.
The rest seem pretty reasonable. I love early season college football lines. Do they even look at this season's rosters or simply base all new lines off last year's performance?
Edit: maizenbluenc beat me to it. My thoughts exactly...
All of those lines look so good to me but I am incapable of making a rational gambling decision on Michigan football
Giving up 3 to a UConn team full of seniors who played much better than their record indicated last year... I think I'll pass on that one.
The UCon game is the most difficult to predict for me. 1st game against an opponent we haven't played. I could see us smoke them if our offense is really clicking, but I wouldn't be a that surprised if we lost. It is one of the biggest games of the year.
While I expect considerable improvement from our offense, I'm not sure how it could literally be light years ahead of last year's.
I have no idea what it would be like if our offense was literally light years ahead of last year, but I can't imagine it would be good for broadcasting purposes.
To be honest, I'm not even sure what it would mean to literally be miles better than last year. I don't know how a measure of distant can be used in anything by a figurative context here.
are correct, UConn will only have 6 Senior starters in 2010.
UConn's wins in 2009:
Ohio University...good MAC team, but still a MAC team
Baylor...bad BCS team
Rhode Island....terrible FCS team (1-10 last season)
Louisville...bad Big East team
Notre Dame...mediocre BCS team
Syracuse...bad Big East team
South Florida...mediocre Big East team
South Carolina....mediocre SEC team
Color me unimpressed with UConn's accomplishments in 2009. They went 7-5 in the regular season, they played 5 non-conference games, they play in the WORST BCS conference and they went 3-4 in said conference. YAWN.
UM will beat UConn by at least 10 points.
I don't think UConn is bad but they aren't what people are purporting them to be.
Look at the yardage they gave up to the best teams they played last year:
- Pittsburgh: 489
- West Virginia: 381
- Cincinatti: 711 (!!!; that's about what we put up on Delaware St. !!!)
- Notre Dame: 452
They had a nice season last year; nothing more.
Well the only team that UM and Connecticut both played out of those 4 is ND. UM gave up 490 total yards to ND, and Connecticut gave up 452 with 3 OTs tacked on so.....
So we agree then; the quality of the UConn Defense in 2009 was comparable to Michigan's defense in 2009. QED.
But since you're being so adorably smug as only a Golden Domer can be:
- It only took UConn 2 OTs to dispose of the slap-fighting irish.
- Due to the rules of college football the most yardage you can gain per OT exchange is 25 yards.
- In actuality, ND was only able to muster 31 yards in OT against UConn's uber stout defense with MUCH better players and a decided schematic advantage.
Shouldn't you know that stuff?
700 yards, dude. UConn got Baby Seal U'ed. As bad as Michigan has been, they haven't done that.
Oh yeah: =).
lol, well if you're going to be mean about it;
Stat: Connecticut vs UM Rank
Rush D: 45 vs 91
Pass D: 88 vs 67
Total D: 62 vs 82
Scoring D: 48 vs 77
Sacks: 28 vs 68
congrats UM wins in Pass Defense, they allowed 12 yards less per game than Connecticut. Oh but Connecticut played the stronger schedule (36th vs 72nd). I would say their defense looks better than UM's if you're only going off of last year's stats, which you apparently are.
Irish, I’m so disappointed in you. Rankings are meaningless, look at the numbers that are ranked. Both defenses were terrible last year. The numbers don’t tell the story, you still have to interpret the number and understand their context.
Stat: Connecticut vs UM
- Rush D: rank - 45 vs 91; ypg -133 vs 172
- Pass D: 88 vs 67; ypg - 236 vs 221
- Total D: 62 vs 82; ypg - 369 vs 393
- Scoring D: 48 vs 77 ; ppg – 23.6 vs 27.5
- Sacks: 28 vs 68; total – 33 vs 22
Ever think that maybe their rush D was so good because teams were throwing on them? Maybe that’s possible…maybe? UConn faced 404 pass attempts to Michigans 364.
There’s another consideration: tempo. Points per game and yards per game is highly correlated to how many drives a team faces. Michigan plays hurry up, UConn played ball control last year.
On Sacks, Michigan got smoked…but so what? Again, more teams passed on UConn because they sucked so much at defending the pass, more opportunities to sack will result in more sacks. Michigan is losing it’s best D-lineman, UConn is losing its top 2 DL.
Finally, they gave up 711 yards in a single game! Not even Rutgers, Syracuse, and Southwest Missouri State (FCS) gave up that many to Cincinnati. Their defense sucked. So did Michigan's. QED.
Oh man, you can polish them up anyway you want, but the numbers show that UConn played better overall defense through 13 games than UM did in 12. And on top of that UConn played a much tougher schedule. Were they both "bad" defenses, it depends on where you define it from average or mediocre or whatever other qualifier you want to use. I will not qualify their entire defense as bad when all but one of those stats is at or in the top half of the country.
UConn played 3 teams that ended up in the Final top 25 (Cinci, Pitt, WVU). Michigan played 3 teams that ended up in the top 10 (Ohio State, Iowa, Penn St) then played Wisconsin for good measure. The rest of the riff-raff is negligibly comparable.
Now, this might be too complicated for you, but taking a look a defensive strength of schedule. When you remove Notre Dame from both team’s shedule the average offensive yards per goal UConn faced was 353 vs. 375 against Michigan. Removing the next best offense (Cinci for UConn, Wisc. for Michigan) the values drop to 343 vs. 371.
UConn Played a tougher schedule, huh? If anything, Michigan’s schedule was more difficult. I know that’s not what the rankings say, but, guess what, the rankings are wrong.
I'm modifying my thesis: Michigan's crappy defense was better than UConn's crappy defense in 2009. QED.
So in summary Jeff Sagarin's SoS ranking is wrong because you said so. Who cares that he supplies one of the BCS computer rankings and contributes to the USA Today, obviously adds nothing to his credibility.
The NCAA stat rankings don't mean anything again evidently because you said so, I mean they only track every BCS through every game and provide valuable stats on their production, what conclusions could you seriously draw from that.
To round it all out UConn's defense is crappy because oh you said so. Lol, Glad we got that all cleared up.
Sagarin' doesn't rank offenses and defenses, he ranks overall records. For what you're trying to do (figure out who's defense faced tougher opponents) Sagarin ranking are an inappropriate tool to use. If you don't think it matters to consider the potency of the offenses that are challenging a given defense, so be it. I thought you'd be savvy enough to understand that but I guess I'm wrong. Fair enough.
And yes, the NCAA ranking don't mean a damned thing because, they give equal credit for facing the Rutgers Offense as they do for facing Michigan State. They also don't ignore match-ups against FCS teams. The NCAA database is a valuable resource, but if you don't apply logic and reasoning to the numbers in it, they're nothing more than an arithmetic exercises.
UConn's defensive crapiness has nothing to do with my opinion, it has to do with the fact that their defense sucks. If I haven't succeeded in demonstrating that to you yet, I never will.
Ok so Sagarin's rankings don't mean anything because they don't differentiate between offense, defense and while were at it special teams; but if you were to go to, I don't know just spit balling here, the NCAA website that does track individual stats.......oh but no they don't mean anything because it doesn't take the strength of the opponent into account, so why don't we look at Sagarin's SoS rankings to.......oh noes a logic circle of death
hahahahhahahahhahahahahhaha very entertaining you have been.
Go ahead and be dense, Irish. I never said Sagarin's rankings don't mean anything, I said they don't apply to this conversation. I also didn't say that NCAA stats don't mean anything, I said that a straight ranking based on stats distorts the perception you will get for a given team, as has happened to you. When you take the time to apply logic and reasoning to what is there, you can tease out a clearer picture.
In this case you see that UConn's defense played against a weak schedule of offenses and only did slightly less bad than Michigan's defense played while facing a much more difficult schedule of offenses.
You're the only one trapped in a spiral here. I actually feel sorry for you.
This is growing tedious, so just imagine that I once again pointed out that just because you say something on the internet, it doesn't make it true. And you should get something to back up what you're trying to sell
My pot-kettle sensors just went crazy.
I think the issue is that you're a big "appeal to authority" guy and since I'm not Jeff Sagarin, what I say is inherently flawed in your eyes. I would think that I've explained myself clearly enough for you to judge the information on its own merits, but you just can't get past that.
But I assume you've hears of Football Outsiders, correct? Here's some reading that will lend some credence to the methods I've employed here. There are many great pages on their site but this one is a good one to read. The most applicable section to this discussion is the one entitled "Standard team rankings based on total yardage are inherently flawed."
Until next time.
The problem with this line of reasoning is that we didn't beat anyone better than that, either. Let's not forget that. We beat a .500 ND team, a last-place Big Ten team (IU), two MAC teams and a I-AA opponent.
Here's the big question: how would 2009 Michigan have done against UConn's schedule, and vice versa?
I'm not sure we'd have done any better, honestly.
That's exactly my point; MIchigan and UConn were very on par with each other last year performance wise. A significant difference that UConn was +4 in turnover margin last year, where as Michigan was -12. That's a huge difference.
So, both teams starting from similar levels but Michigan has better recruits and also gains a non-freshman QB as well as their best offensive lineman (maybe even best offensive player). Michigan should win this game.
Michigan was starting a true freshman QB last year, UConn was not. Michigan's true freshman QB was tearing it up until he injured his throwing shoulder in the 4th game of the season. Michigan's best and most important OL man (Molk) was out after game 4.
I know a lot of people want to argue that UM's competition got tougher and that was why they went on the losing streak to end the season, but it is MY OPINION (and only my opinion) that UM would have won at LEAST two more games had Forcier and Molk not gotten injured against Indiana.
Given that this is the first game of the season, in the newly restored Big House, with NON freshman QB's, a defense in its second year under the same DC for the first time in years, with Brock Mealer leading the team onto the field (you think that won't be inspirational to our guys?), all the sh*t that UM has endured this past year and being completely disrespected by all the media, I think UM will be pretty "up" for this game. Well, all I've got to say is...Look out UConn, we gonna get you.
Michigan wins 38 to 24. Book it.
Here's the big question: how would 2009 Michigan have done against UConn's schedule, and vice versa?
I don't consider that a big question, does it even matter in regards to the 2010 season? I think not. Attempting to extrapolate how a team performs from one season to the next, based on stats, is dubious at best. Considering all the changes from season to season, regarding college football in general, and this M team in particular, compels me to be hopeful we will see a vastly different and improved product this fall.
If RR, Barwis, Coach Robinson, Coach Magee, and the rest, are as proficient program builders as many think (myself included), then we should see results not commensurate with the past 2 seasons debacles
I asked the question in reponse to a poster who predicted a 10+ point victory based on an analysis of UConn's season. You can't say 2009 was relevant for UConn this year but not for us.
Gotcha, see where you are coming from, I was a little late to the party
I dont gamble but can someone take the time to explain the number to me?
If UM is -7, then we are favored to win by 7 points. If UM is +7, we are projected to lose by 7 points. If it is a pick'em game, then all you have to do is pick a team to win and you win the bet. All games with points means you not only have to pick the right team to win, but they have to win by that many points for you to win the bet. If you pick the underdog (like UM v ND with UM getting 7 points), you win your bet if UM wins outright or loses by less than 7 points. If you pick ND -7, ND has to win by more than 7 points or you lose the bet. If ND wins by exactly 7 points, it's a push and you get your money back (depending on how the place where you place your bets handles pushes).
Does that help? I'm no jamiemac, but I thought I'd try.
Isn't that why a lot of gambling sites do half-point spreads (e.g. -3.5, +6.5) to avoid pushes?
You don't often see even point spreads for just that reason. I don't know why a casino would come out with an even spread unless they keep the money if there's a tie.
but I believe that most books set a line and adjust it accordingly until it's as close as possible to 50% of bettors betting for each team. That way the losers pay the winners, with the book taking a cut and avoiding any gamble on its own part. This is why lines will fluctuate some; if too many people starting taking Michigan -3, the book will move the line so that taking UCONN looks more attractive.
As to the push scenario, I think the book takes a cut of all wagers regardless of the outcome, so you would get almost all of your money back.
In a perfect world a sportsbook/odds-maker wants exactly the same action on both sides and they will be more than happy to just collect the juice/ vig at the end of the day.
It is pretty funny to think about when you consider the casino doesn't want to gamble and only wants the safe money.
The vig and push stuff works like this: You have to lay the vig to place a bet. For example, if you wanted to bet a $100 on Michigan -3 you have to pay $110($100 bet + $10 vig.) If you cover (win by 4 or more), it will pay you $210(your $110 + a $100 win.) Also, a push is exactly that, If Michigan wins by 3 you get your original wager of $110 back.
The casino will only take your sports bet and vig if your lose.
friendly amendment. I agree with you about the intrinsic humor of the whole thing.
This helps alot!
But I forgot to mention the disclaimer after all casino commercials I hear on the radio. "Gambling problems and addiction may occur. Please call our gambling hotline if you find that you cannot control your urges to gamble."
Also worth noting, it's often said that home field advantage is an automatic 3 points in your favor. So if you're -3 at home, the teams are basically considered even. So if we were to play UCONN at a neutral site, it'd be a "pick-em" line.
To me, the lines that look way off are...
ND favored by 7 against us. I actually like our chances in that game a lot. I think ND is going to be pretty bad in September.
Us favored by 3 against MSU and UConn. MSU has massacred us at the line of scrimmage two years in a row and they have dominated total yards as well. I have seen no reason to think that will change. UConn is a highly experienced team that returns lots of guys where it matters most. I would make us about a 7-point dog at this point.
Penn State favored by double digits against us. I expect them to be a low scoring, ugly team. 10 points will be a lot for them to cover. An upset in that game wouldn't shock me. This year for the first time in the RichRod era, we'll have a fighting chance at the LOS. Whereas the previous two years it has been freshmen&sophomores vs junior and senior NFL talent.
lost 3 5th year seniors that were starters. If their O line mauls us this year then our D may be in trouble. Reality is they beat us by 2 TDs in our worst year and in OT last year in our freshman QBs first road game.
Michigan was pretty lucky to be in last year's game at all. When Michigan got the ball for their first TD drive, the yardage for the game was about 380-80. That was after MSU had bottled up the offense and started sitting on the lead -- Lloyd style. Both MSU and Michigan return lots of key players. They have beaten us at the line of scrimmage badly three years in a row, going back to the miraculous '07 game. I really don't like our chances in that one.
I've been sitting on this info, not to mention all the other Big 10 and NCAA games the GN released until my torrid summer love affair with soccer ended.
When I break up with soccer, expect some JCB posts and a diary or two on the subject here.
I'd take Michigan in the first two games, and that's it, for now.
I just like the vibes of the opener. And, if UConn is ranked and the line stays the same.....a old bookie once said always take the unranked team who is favored over the ranked team
As for UM +7 ve ND, while I am always scared to death of any UM team heading into South Bend, if everyone on this board isnt up to speed on the amazing numbers the Underdog has in the rivalry, then my job to educate the masses clearly is not done.
Of the top of my head, I think the dog is 20-5 ATS, with a 13-12-1 straight up record. The Irish havent covered as a favorite in this series since 1982.
I figured you'd found it months ago. I'll save the analysis for you though. I'd be lying if I gave out any advice.
Yeah, the Nugget's lines came out three weeks ago today. The sports radio in Vegas actually makes the event a live show. Oh Bliss.
But, I found them the following day about an hour before I went to a movie with the girlfriend. That silly Prince of Persia movie.
I wasnt even paying attention. I was too excited at Michigan +7 vs Notre Dame and Boise -1 vs Va Tech to concentrate on whatever was going on on the screen. I dont think I missed much, however.
Do you like VT in that game?
since 1978 (when UM and ND started playing on a nearly annual basis) UM has only lost by more than 7 pts 3 times and one of those was the Yakety Sax Turnover Fest 2008 game.
Take UM and the points all day long if they are 7 pt dogs in SB.
It was perhaps meaningful to compare past UM teams to the current UM team until January 2, 2008. Until then the past UM teams were similar enough under a common lineage (or at least a common style) of coaches to allow for comparison and prediction. Those teams, however, are too dissimilar to the UM teams since 2008. It's nice sometimes to look back at the past, but, since 2008, it helps us very little to predict the future.
pretty much how all gamblers look at trends. Obviously, they are not guaranteed to win BIG MONEY for you, but if a trend holds up over many games or a long time period, it is usually a good thing to know.
You'll notice jamiemac constantly refers to trends like this (he even did it in this post re: Notre Dame just a few posts up from mine) because they are a gambling man's stock in trade.
My argument is that you have to assume independence between 2007 and 2008 and forward. I don't care who you are or what you do. Whether jamiemac does nor not, I would be very surprised if the Vegas guys used pre-2008 to predict 2010. And if they do, I would put no stock in it. There is just some point when qualitative reasoning and logic have to prevail.
... that you could have retired a millionaire betting Michigan to NOT cover the spread over the Lloyd years.
But that was when they were favored most of the time.
I will scream if we lose to ND and that peripatetic asshole Brian Kelly.
I like us against UConn, ND, PSU, and Purdue, but not Iowa and Wisconsin. I'm not sure about the MSU game yet.
against either Iowa or Wisconsin, but think we will lose to PSU and expect a close game at Purdue.
All the people who said ND isn't crap, if we lose to them, if they'll be on the "Oh, ND had all this returning talent for the coach to use" bandwagon then, to excuse Rich. And conversely, if we wax them, if anyone who thought they were bringing back a juggernaut will downplay the victory because "he hasn't got his system in yet".
a victory for UM in South Bend next season, but I do think it will be a close game (3-4 win by ND IMO).
Brian Kelly is a very good coach and will have ND back to winning 10 games a year pretty soon (possibly as soon as 2011), but he is not a miracle worker and I think ND will win 7...maybe 8 games next season.