Gambling Land: Early line, Michigan -3 over UCONN
The Golden Nugget has their first college football lines released. Here's a look at where Michigan stacks up early:
| Date | Favored | Line | Underdog | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/4 | Michigan | -3 | UCONN | Michigan |
| 9/11 | Notre Dame | -7 | Michigan | Notre Dame |
| 10/9 | Michigan | -3 | Michigan St. | Michigan |
| 10/16 | Iowa | -3 | Michigan | Michigan |
| 10/30 | Penn State | -10 | Michigan | Penn State |
| 11/13 | Michigan | PICK | Purdue | Purdue |
| 11/20 | Wisconsin | -4 | Michigan | Michigan |
| 11/27 | Ohio State | -13.5 | Michigan | Ohio State |
Looks like Michigan is considered equal to UCONN and Michigan State this year, slightly better than Purdue. I'd say that sounds fair based on recent history.
Discuss.
I'm not getting the -10 line for Penn State. That one might be worth betting the spread on. Its going to be our offense against their defense - I'm thinking closer than 10 points. ND too maybe, but people seem to be betting that Weiss was a horrible coach of really good players ...
Penn State's offense doesn't project to be world-beating this year. They will win a lot of games, but I don't know if that translates to covering larger spreads. They're gonna win their games 13-6, not 42-30
Charlie was a horrible coach of really good players. Kelly, on the other hand, is a really good coach, but with less good players.
In my view, ND lost the majority of their offense and is going through something of an offensive overhaul, so even with Kelly's coaching, I doubt that their offense will be solid by week 2. ND's defense was never good in the first place. So, yeah, I don't really get the ND(-7).
I agree maizenbluenc. PSU game will be much closer than -10. PSU has a young, unproven qb. I wouldn't be surprised at all if mich WINS that game. PSU might have a good defense but if mich scores at least 24 points I don't see their offense scoring beyond 21 points. All mich has to do is stop Evan Royster. ND -7 is too much also. I think either mich will blow out ND, yes blow out, or ND could win a nail biter. It's all about how much Kelly can implement his system by kick off. I don't think ND will be ready. ND will start to get better midseason. "To hell with ND!"
10 point dogs to PSU breaking in a new, untested QB at Happy Valley?! I see that line coming down a bit. If I had any money, I'd grab that game and laugh when it's UM +3.5 on game day.
WTF with ND line?! I'll take 7 points on the road against a team with many new faces, including the corch.
The rest seem pretty reasonable. I love early season college football lines. Do they even look at this season's rosters or simply base all new lines off last year's performance?
Edit: maizenbluenc beat me to it. My thoughts exactly...
All of those lines look so good to me but I am incapable of making a rational gambling decision on Michigan football
There is a very huge opportunity here, to take Michigan in the first UConn game and give up 3 points, and bet large... because the paradigm will shift quite quickly in the handicapping world after we lay 45+ points on UConn. Bet while you can.
Giving up 3 to a UConn team full of seniors who played much better than their record indicated last year... I think I'll pass on that one.
The UCon game is the most difficult to predict for me. 1st game against an opponent we haven't played. I could see us smoke them if our offense is really clicking, but I wouldn't be a that surprised if we lost. It is one of the biggest games of the year.
All this BS and hate emotion toward Rodriguez, is about to flip into love...his offense is about to be unleashed, for he finally got the players he needed. Heck, we almost started 6-0 last year and nearly beat Iowa one of the top teams in the country, with two true freshman QBs! Our offense is literally light years ahead from last year. L-I-G-H-T Y-E-A-R-S. It seems like the past two years have everyone scared enough to see what is about to be unleashed, unable to perhaps see the forest of the trees.
Our offense will be the biggest story in college football by week 5, with Denard Robinson a household name by the end of the season.
Like I said... giving three points is gonna be the only true betting opportunity we'll get this year, because the paradigm is about shift quite quickly.
While I expect considerable improvement from our offense, I'm not sure how it could literally be light years ahead of last year's.
I have no idea what it would be like if our offense was literally light years ahead of last year, but I can't imagine it would be good for broadcasting purposes.
To be honest, I'm not even sure what it would mean to literally be miles better than last year. I don't know how a measure of distant can be used in anything by a figurative context here.
are correct, UConn will only have 6 Senior starters in 2010.
UConn's wins in 2009:
Ohio University...good MAC team, but still a MAC team
Baylor...bad BCS team
Rhode Island....terrible FCS team (1-10 last season)
Louisville...bad Big East team
Notre Dame...mediocre BCS team
Syracuse...bad Big East team
South Florida...mediocre Big East team
South Carolina....mediocre SEC team
Color me unimpressed with UConn's accomplishments in 2009. They went 7-5 in the regular season, they played 5 non-conference games, they play in the WORST BCS conference and they went 3-4 in said conference. YAWN.
UM will beat UConn by at least 10 points.
I don't think UConn is bad but they aren't what people are purporting them to be.
Look at the yardage they gave up to the best teams they played last year:
- Pittsburgh: 489
- West Virginia: 381
- Cincinatti: 711 (!!!; that's about what we put up on Delaware St. !!!)
- Notre Dame: 452
They had a nice season last year; nothing more.
Well the only team that UM and Connecticut both played out of those 4 is ND. UM gave up 490 total yards to ND, and Connecticut gave up 452 with 3 OTs tacked on so.....
So we agree then; the quality of the UConn Defense in 2009 was comparable to Michigan's defense in 2009. QED.
But since you're being so adorably smug as only a Golden Domer can be:
- It only took UConn 2 OTs to dispose of the slap-fighting irish.
- Due to the rules of college football the most yardage you can gain per OT exchange is 25 yards.
- In actuality, ND was only able to muster 31 yards in OT against UConn's uber stout defense with MUCH better players and a decided schematic advantage.
Shouldn't you know that stuff?
700 yards, dude. UConn got Baby Seal U'ed. As bad as Michigan has been, they haven't done that.
Oh yeah: =).
Irish, I’m so disappointed in you. Rankings are meaningless, look at the numbers that are ranked. Both defenses were terrible last year. The numbers don’t tell the story, you still have to interpret the number and understand their context.
Stat: Connecticut vs UM
- Rush D: rank - 45 vs 91; ypg -133 vs 172
- Pass D: 88 vs 67; ypg - 236 vs 221
- Total D: 62 vs 82; ypg - 369 vs 393
- Scoring D: 48 vs 77 ; ppg – 23.6 vs 27.5
- Sacks: 28 vs 68; total – 33 vs 22
Ever think that maybe their rush D was so good because teams were throwing on them? Maybe that’s possible…maybe? UConn faced 404 pass attempts to Michigans 364.
There’s another consideration: tempo. Points per game and yards per game is highly correlated to how many drives a team faces. Michigan plays hurry up, UConn played ball control last year.
On Sacks, Michigan got smoked…but so what? Again, more teams passed on UConn because they sucked so much at defending the pass, more opportunities to sack will result in more sacks. Michigan is losing it’s best D-lineman, UConn is losing its top 2 DL.
Finally, they gave up 711 yards in a single game! Not even Rutgers, Syracuse, and Southwest Missouri State (FCS) gave up that many to Cincinnati. Their defense sucked. So did Michigan's. QED.
Oh man, you can polish them up anyway you want, but the numbers show that UConn played better overall defense through 13 games than UM did in 12. And on top of that UConn played a much tougher schedule. Were they both "bad" defenses, it depends on where you define it from average or mediocre or whatever other qualifier you want to use. I will not qualify their entire defense as bad when all but one of those stats is at or in the top half of the country.
UConn played 3 teams that ended up in the Final top 25 (Cinci, Pitt, WVU). Michigan played 3 teams that ended up in the top 10 (Ohio State, Iowa, Penn St) then played Wisconsin for good measure. The rest of the riff-raff is negligibly comparable.
Now, this might be too complicated for you, but taking a look a defensive strength of schedule. When you remove Notre Dame from both team’s shedule the average offensive yards per goal UConn faced was 353 vs. 375 against Michigan. Removing the next best offense (Cinci for UConn, Wisc. for Michigan) the values drop to 343 vs. 371.
UConn Played a tougher schedule, huh? If anything, Michigan’s schedule was more difficult. I know that’s not what the rankings say, but, guess what, the rankings are wrong.
I'm modifying my thesis: Michigan's crappy defense was better than UConn's crappy defense in 2009. QED.
So in summary Jeff Sagarin's SoS ranking is wrong because you said so. Who cares that he supplies one of the BCS computer rankings and contributes to the USA Today, obviously adds nothing to his credibility.
The NCAA stat rankings don't mean anything again evidently because you said so, I mean they only track every BCS through every game and provide valuable stats on their production, what conclusions could you seriously draw from that.
To round it all out UConn's defense is crappy because oh you said so. Lol, Glad we got that all cleared up.
Sagarin' doesn't rank offenses and defenses, he ranks overall records. For what you're trying to do (figure out who's defense faced tougher opponents) Sagarin ranking are an inappropriate tool to use. If you don't think it matters to consider the potency of the offenses that are challenging a given defense, so be it. I thought you'd be savvy enough to understand that but I guess I'm wrong. Fair enough.
And yes, the NCAA ranking don't mean a damned thing because, they give equal credit for facing the Rutgers Offense as they do for facing Michigan State. They also don't ignore match-ups against FCS teams. The NCAA database is a valuable resource, but if you don't apply logic and reasoning to the numbers in it, they're nothing more than an arithmetic exercises.
UConn's defensive crapiness has nothing to do with my opinion, it has to do with the fact that their defense sucks. If I haven't succeeded in demonstrating that to you yet, I never will.
Ok so Sagarin's rankings don't mean anything because they don't differentiate between offense, defense and while were at it special teams; but if you were to go to, I don't know just spit balling here, the NCAA website that does track individual stats.......oh but no they don't mean anything because it doesn't take the strength of the opponent into account, so why don't we look at Sagarin's SoS rankings to.......oh noes a logic circle of death
hahahahhahahahhahahahahhaha very entertaining you have been.
Go ahead and be dense, Irish. I never said Sagarin's rankings don't mean anything, I said they don't apply to this conversation. I also didn't say that NCAA stats don't mean anything, I said that a straight ranking based on stats distorts the perception you will get for a given team, as has happened to you. When you take the time to apply logic and reasoning to what is there, you can tease out a clearer picture.
In this case you see that UConn's defense played against a weak schedule of offenses and only did slightly less bad than Michigan's defense played while facing a much more difficult schedule of offenses.
You're the only one trapped in a spiral here. I actually feel sorry for you.
This is growing tedious, so just imagine that I once again pointed out that just because you say something on the internet, it doesn't make it true. And you should get something to back up what you're trying to sell
My pot-kettle sensors just went crazy.
I think the issue is that you're a big "appeal to authority" guy and since I'm not Jeff Sagarin, what I say is inherently flawed in your eyes. I would think that I've explained myself clearly enough for you to judge the information on its own merits, but you just can't get past that.
But I assume you've hears of Football Outsiders, correct? Here's some reading that will lend some credence to the methods I've employed here. There are many great pages on their site but this one is a good one to read. The most applicable section to this discussion is the one entitled "Standard team rankings based on total yardage are inherently flawed."
Until next time.
The problem with this line of reasoning is that we didn't beat anyone better than that, either. Let's not forget that. We beat a .500 ND team, a last-place Big Ten team (IU), two MAC teams and a I-AA opponent.
Here's the big question: how would 2009 Michigan have done against UConn's schedule, and vice versa?
I'm not sure we'd have done any better, honestly.
That's exactly my point; MIchigan and UConn were very on par with each other last year performance wise. A significant difference that UConn was +4 in turnover margin last year, where as Michigan was -12. That's a huge difference.
So, both teams starting from similar levels but Michigan has better recruits and also gains a non-freshman QB as well as their best offensive lineman (maybe even best offensive player). Michigan should win this game.
Michigan was starting a true freshman QB last year, UConn was not. Michigan's true freshman QB was tearing it up until he injured his throwing shoulder in the 4th game of the season. Michigan's best and most important OL man (Molk) was out after game 4.
I know a lot of people want to argue that UM's competition got tougher and that was why they went on the losing streak to end the season, but it is MY OPINION (and only my opinion) that UM would have won at LEAST two more games had Forcier and Molk not gotten injured against Indiana.
Given that this is the first game of the season, in the newly restored Big House, with NON freshman QB's, a defense in its second year under the same DC for the first time in years, with Brock Mealer leading the team onto the field (you think that won't be inspirational to our guys?), all the sh*t that UM has endured this past year and being completely disrespected by all the media, I think UM will be pretty "up" for this game. Well, all I've got to say is...Look out UConn, we gonna get you.
Michigan wins 38 to 24. Book it.
Here's the big question: how would 2009 Michigan have done against UConn's schedule, and vice versa?
I don't consider that a big question, does it even matter in regards to the 2010 season? I think not. Attempting to extrapolate how a team performs from one season to the next, based on stats, is dubious at best. Considering all the changes from season to season, regarding college football in general, and this M team in particular, compels me to be hopeful we will see a vastly different and improved product this fall.
If RR, Barwis, Coach Robinson, Coach Magee, and the rest, are as proficient program builders as many think (myself included), then we should see results not commensurate with the past 2 seasons debacles
I asked the question in reponse to a poster who predicted a 10+ point victory based on an analysis of UConn's season. You can't say 2009 was relevant for UConn this year but not for us.
Gotcha, see where you are coming from, I was a little late to the party
I dont gamble but can someone take the time to explain the number to me?
Thanks
If UM is -7, then we are favored to win by 7 points. If UM is +7, we are projected to lose by 7 points. If it is a pick'em game, then all you have to do is pick a team to win and you win the bet. All games with points means you not only have to pick the right team to win, but they have to win by that many points for you to win the bet. If you pick the underdog (like UM v ND with UM getting 7 points), you win your bet if UM wins outright or loses by less than 7 points. If you pick ND -7, ND has to win by more than 7 points or you lose the bet. If ND wins by exactly 7 points, it's a push and you get your money back (depending on how the place where you place your bets handles pushes).
Does that help? I'm no jamiemac, but I thought I'd try.
Isn't that why a lot of gambling sites do half-point spreads (e.g. -3.5, +6.5) to avoid pushes?
You don't often see even point spreads for just that reason. I don't know why a casino would come out with an even spread unless they keep the money if there's a tie.
but I believe that most books set a line and adjust it accordingly until it's as close as possible to 50% of bettors betting for each team. That way the losers pay the winners, with the book taking a cut and avoiding any gamble on its own part. This is why lines will fluctuate some; if too many people starting taking Michigan -3, the book will move the line so that taking UCONN looks more attractive.
As to the push scenario, I think the book takes a cut of all wagers regardless of the outcome, so you would get almost all of your money back.
In a perfect world a sportsbook/odds-maker wants exactly the same action on both sides and they will be more than happy to just collect the juice/ vig at the end of the day.
It is pretty funny to think about when you consider the casino doesn't want to gamble and only wants the safe money.
The vig and push stuff works like this: You have to lay the vig to place a bet. For example, if you wanted to bet a $100 on Michigan -3 you have to pay $110($100 bet + $10 vig.) If you cover (win by 4 or more), it will pay you $210(your $110 + a $100 win.) Also, a push is exactly that, If Michigan wins by 3 you get your original wager of $110 back.
The casino will only take your sports bet and vig if your lose.
friendly amendment. I agree with you about the intrinsic humor of the whole thing.
This helps alot!
But I forgot to mention the disclaimer after all casino commercials I hear on the radio. "Gambling problems and addiction may occur. Please call our gambling hotline if you find that you cannot control your urges to gamble."
Also worth noting, it's often said that home field advantage is an automatic 3 points in your favor. So if you're -3 at home, the teams are basically considered even. So if we were to play UCONN at a neutral site, it'd be a "pick-em" line.
To me, the lines that look way off are...
ND favored by 7 against us. I actually like our chances in that game a lot. I think ND is going to be pretty bad in September.
Us favored by 3 against MSU and UConn. MSU has massacred us at the line of scrimmage two years in a row and they have dominated total yards as well. I have seen no reason to think that will change. UConn is a highly experienced team that returns lots of guys where it matters most. I would make us about a 7-point dog at this point.
Penn State favored by double digits against us. I expect them to be a low scoring, ugly team. 10 points will be a lot for them to cover. An upset in that game wouldn't shock me. This year for the first time in the RichRod era, we'll have a fighting chance at the LOS. Whereas the previous two years it has been freshmen&sophomores vs junior and senior NFL talent.
Michigan was pretty lucky to be in last year's game at all. When Michigan got the ball for their first TD drive, the yardage for the game was about 380-80. That was after MSU had bottled up the offense and started sitting on the lead -- Lloyd style. Both MSU and Michigan return lots of key players. They have beaten us at the line of scrimmage badly three years in a row, going back to the miraculous '07 game. I really don't like our chances in that one.
I've been sitting on this info, not to mention all the other Big 10 and NCAA games the GN released until my torrid summer love affair with soccer ended.
When I break up with soccer, expect some JCB posts and a diary or two on the subject here.
I'd take Michigan in the first two games, and that's it, for now.
I just like the vibes of the opener. And, if UConn is ranked and the line stays the same.....a old bookie once said always take the unranked team who is favored over the ranked team
As for UM +7 ve ND, while I am always scared to death of any UM team heading into South Bend, if everyone on this board isnt up to speed on the amazing numbers the Underdog has in the rivalry, then my job to educate the masses clearly is not done.
Of the top of my head, I think the dog is 20-5 ATS, with a 13-12-1 straight up record. The Irish havent covered as a favorite in this series since 1982.
I figured you'd found it months ago. I'll save the analysis for you though. I'd be lying if I gave out any advice.
Yeah, the Nugget's lines came out three weeks ago today. The sports radio in Vegas actually makes the event a live show. Oh Bliss.
But, I found them the following day about an hour before I went to a movie with the girlfriend. That silly Prince of Persia movie.
I wasnt even paying attention. I was too excited at Michigan +7 vs Notre Dame and Boise -1 vs Va Tech to concentrate on whatever was going on on the screen. I dont think I missed much, however.
Do you like VT in that game?
since 1978 (when UM and ND started playing on a nearly annual basis) UM has only lost by more than 7 pts 3 times and one of those was the Yakety Sax Turnover Fest 2008 game.
Take UM and the points all day long if they are 7 pt dogs in SB.