Friday Sweet 16 Predictions Thread
First game of the night is the obvious headliner on this site, Michigan vs Tennessee. This game has been analyzed from every angle on this site already. I think the key to this game is foul trouble, specifically concerning the big men. While our bench is good, it is not deep. Tennessee's bench is not good or deep. If either Stokes or Maymon pick up two quick ones, I don't think Tennessee would be able to overcome that. At the same time, Morgan and Horford can't be picking up any cheap ones. Beilfeldt might be able to hold up, but I'd rather not need to find out. It will be important for GR3 to be able to take advantage of his mismatch on the offensive end, as well.
Tipping off shortly after Michigan is UConn vs Iowa State. This is a game dominated by great guard play. UConn is led by Shabazz Napier (who's been so good people are starting to compare him to Kemba, for better or worse) and Ryan Boatright. Iowa State has DeAndre Kane and Melvin Ejim, who are both very good. Neither team has great big men play, especially with the loss of Niang for ISU. This game likely comes down to which duo has the better game. If either has an off night, that could be all it takes to be sent home.
The second game in the Midwest regional is Kentucky vs Louisville. Kentucky won the first time the two teams played this year, in the regular season. Kentucky played its best game of the season against Wichita St last weekend, but it was in part because of uncharacteristically good outside shooting. If Kentucky IS making its shots, they are just about as good as anyone. Russ Smith played a very poor game the first time the two teams played, so look for him to have a good revenge game.
The last game of the night features Staee taking on ACC champion Virginia. State would appear to have more talent on paper, but Virginia plays fantastic team defense, and their offense is nothing to sneeze at either. I think the key to this game is State's ability to force turnovers and get some easy buckets in transition. If they can't do that, it could be a long night for them trying to generate baskets against Virginia's half court defense.
My predictions:
Michigan 72, Tennessee 65
UConn 79, Iowa State 77
Louisville 66, Kentucky 61
MSU 67, Virginia 64
M
ISU
L'ville
UVA
I agree with your 1-3, but think MSU beats UVA. I'm praying that MSU loses though.
Staee will lose because of turnovers and poor decisions, especially late in the game when things get tight. It is their MO.
Michigan 70, Tennessee 61
Iowa State 75, UCONN 72
Louisville 72, Kentucky 60
UVA 62, MSU 57
M 75-63
UConn 67-60
Louisville 80-68
UVA 70-61
This game scares me... Not sure if it is actually becuase Tennessee looks like a dangerous team or if it's because I'm not sure I can handle all the crap I will get if we lose (I live in the Knoxville area)
Your life is about to get a lot better or a lot worse, even more so than for the rest of us.
UM over Tenn 79-65
UL over UK 69-67
UVA over MSU 65-61
ISU over CONN 72-64
That would give me 7/8 in the elite 8 in my bracket.
Michigan 100 Tennessee 0
but Stauskas will be held to under 200.
Saw a lot of State fans in midtown manhattan today (i.e., lots of green garb sort of like St. Patrick's day). They looked really out-of-place and confused. Rough-looking group.
Ditka vs God.
Trick question. Ditka IS God.
UVA 10 MSU 0
Michigan by 6
State by 12
Kentucky by 1
ISU by 7
Are you really loving the taste of the State kool-aid or are you really skeptical of UVA? Both? (edit: serious question/not being dickish)
What State Kool-Aid? They're a great team. So is Virginia.
I've seen both teams and I think State is a lot better. Just trying to be objective.
I don't disagree, but a 12-point margin is a pretty bold prediction, which is why I asked. And State is a great team, but there's been plenty of Kool-Aid being dished out by the media that I think overstates how great they are.
I think I am going to pound some beers, eat some steak, and win the damn game.
Don't let us down
For some reason, your avatar makes me trust your ability to do that.
Virginia 60 MSU 57
Uconn 83 ISU 77
Louisville 78 UK 74
I wouldn't necessarily agree with these, but here's what Massey says:
| Team | Pred | Pwin | Margin | Total |
| Michigan | 64 | 45% | -1.5 | 131.5 |
| Tennessee | 66 | 55% | ||
| Iowa St | 75 | 48% | -1.5 | 152.5 |
| Connecticut | 76 | 52% | ||
| Michigan St | 62 | 45% | -1.5 | 127.5 |
| Virginia | 64 | 55% | ||
| Louisville | 72 | 69% | -5.5 | 13 |
| Kentucky | 67 | 31% |
I have to think that we'll handle Tennessee, although ours could be a close, grinding game potentially. I still have some faith in Iowa State to win that game too, and I think Virginia-MSU is probably a good each way bet - if Virginia gets ahead by a good margin though, they can defend well enough for MSU to have a tough time coming back. I would agree with the mild confidence in Louisville winning their game.
Assuming that doesn't somehow incorporate injuries, it's pretty interesting that he has UConn over ISU (even slightly).
Also, give me the over on Kentucky-Louisville.
Tennessee 61
UCONN 65 Iowa State 58
MSU 71 UVA 68
Louisville 55 UK 53
On it's most basic level I really want Michigan to win. Not because of "titles" or bragging rights. Those things are fun. But the most fun I have is looking forward to the games and watching these guys play. This team is a joy to follow and every win gives me another two hours of excitement.
UVA 62 MSU 60
I don't care about the other two. (I don't like Callipari, and since this time last year I have developed a hatred for Louisville--in particular Luke Hancock)
Iowa State
Louisville
Virginia
Keith Appling shits the bed again with 8 turnovers cementing his place as most overrated player in Spartoon history
Michigan wins. Can't rebound what we don't miss.
Iowa State
Louisville
UVA in the most closely contested game of the night
On a related point, I don't think the talking heads appreciate what a collection of SIX high percentage three point shooters can do for consistency.
When a team has, say, two really good three point shooters, there will be some games where they'll be off.
Michigan, on the other hand, has six. There is likely to be someone to pick up the shooting slack if, God forbid, Stauskas has an off shooting night. I suppose this could be verified by a smaller standard deviation in three point shooting percentage by game.
I don't really know what to think about this game. I keep remembering that Iowa was beating the snot out of Tenn. in the first half of the play in game but somehow let it slip away. So, I feel good in that respect but I hate to say it but I think this is kind of a finesse team and Tenn. may be able to rattle them a bit.
UM - 75
Tenn.- 69
Michigan over the 76ers
- Michigan
- Iowa State
- Kentucky
- Sparty
No faith in teams that played in weak leagues unless they dominated that league, a la Florida. Thus, UVa will keep it close. Other than that, solid victories.
This means that the complete opposite of what I just said will happen.
is weak, but Virginia's schedule in the ACC was.
March 28th, 2014 at 11:04 PM ^
...no ACC team past Sweet 16. Weak.
Michigan
Louisville
Virginia
Iowa St
All moving on to the elite 8 so I'm sticking with those picks. Then my final 4 is
Michigan, Arizona
Iowa St, Florida
This game hype is sort of reminding me of VCU last year. Everyone was so psyched on VCU because they a) had a bit of momentum and b) dismantled an inferior opponent. Everyone was tripping over themselves trying to predict VCU to win in the most dominant fashion.
Similarly, everyone is overlooking Tennessee's beautiful 11-7 record in the SEC and 1-5 record against the RPI Top 50 in favor of their thrilling victories over UMass and Mercer. Umass...and Mercer.
Bold prediction!: Michigan by 18. 75-57
Also this notion that this is "The Nightmare Matchup for Michigan" irks me. While I'm the first to admit, I did not want to run into a team whose bread and butter is brute size and athleticism, I don't think this team is nearly skilled enough or offensively potent enough to keep up with Michigan. They're surely no nightmare. If they were, they wouldn't have struggled so mightily all season. And a few wins against lackluster opponents doesn't make me all of a sudden a believer in Tennessee. Let's hope we're right!
So did Charles Barkley, although he couched his concern for VCU in statements like "VCU preys on teams with ball handling issues. Michigan doesn't have a good point guard, they have a great point guard (leaving the logical conclusion to the viewer). By halftime, Charles had opened up and conceded explicitly that it was a turrible matchup for VCU.
It was 1990 UNLV versus Loyola Marymount, as the guys who run up and down they floor ran into a team that could do it faster and better. Not 1990 UM vs LMU.
Now in any game, we have the potential to go all Florida 2013 (Nik 6-6) or Illinois 2014 (UM 16-23), but IMO, this isn't the case of a team in Tennessee that's about to get a taste of its own medicine by a team superior at its own strength.
GO BLUE GO!!
that I will have a tough time concentrating on my last hour of work.
GO BLUE!
Tennessee 68 Michigan 63
ISU 77 UConn 68
Kentucky 82 Louisville 79
UVA 66 MSU 65
I'd be completely OK if the favorite by seeding number won every game tonight.
Michigan wins.
Louisville wins. (I had my formative years in Louisville, and I can safely say that Kentucky basketball fans are the equivalent of OSU football fans...and now in Ohio I live across the street from a guy who is fans of BOTH. Yes, the word "unbearable" is very apt here.)
Virginia wins.
That'd make my night.
Conn-Iowa State? Yeah...don't care about that one.
I predict there will be anxiety, relief, pain, joy, pounding hearts, cursing, exclamations, and MADNESS...