First game of the night is the obvious headliner on this site, Michigan vs Tennessee. This game has been analyzed from every angle on this site already. I think the key to this game is foul trouble, specifically concerning the big men. While our bench is good, it is not deep. Tennessee's bench is not good or deep. If either Stokes or Maymon pick up two quick ones, I don't think Tennessee would be able to overcome that. At the same time, Morgan and Horford can't be picking up any cheap ones. Beilfeldt might be able to hold up, but I'd rather not need to find out. It will be important for GR3 to be able to take advantage of his mismatch on the offensive end, as well.
Tipping off shortly after Michigan is UConn vs Iowa State. This is a game dominated by great guard play. UConn is led by Shabazz Napier (who's been so good people are starting to compare him to Kemba, for better or worse) and Ryan Boatright. Iowa State has DeAndre Kane and Melvin Ejim, who are both very good. Neither team has great big men play, especially with the loss of Niang for ISU. This game likely comes down to which duo has the better game. If either has an off night, that could be all it takes to be sent home.
The second game in the Midwest regional is Kentucky vs Louisville. Kentucky won the first time the two teams played this year, in the regular season. Kentucky played its best game of the season against Wichita St last weekend, but it was in part because of uncharacteristically good outside shooting. If Kentucky IS making its shots, they are just about as good as anyone. Russ Smith played a very poor game the first time the two teams played, so look for him to have a good revenge game.
The last game of the night features Staee taking on ACC champion Virginia. State would appear to have more talent on paper, but Virginia plays fantastic team defense, and their offense is nothing to sneeze at either. I think the key to this game is State's ability to force turnovers and get some easy buckets in transition. If they can't do that, it could be a long night for them trying to generate baskets against Virginia's half court defense.
Michigan 72, Tennessee 65
UConn 79, Iowa State 77
Louisville 66, Kentucky 61
MSU 67, Virginia 64