friday bracketology
not much changed since lunardi's monday projection:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
michigan still a 4 seed, though now in the east region and playing iona. B1G still has 8 teams in, and n'western is the fourth team of the "first four out" group.
he knocks murray st. down to a 7 seed w/ the loss last night.
February 10th, 2012 at 2:48 PM ^
February 10th, 2012 at 3:17 PM ^
Obviously they beat Michigan, but they also only lost by 3 @ Duke and @ FSU. That's a pretty dangerous second (technically third) round matchup.
February 10th, 2012 at 2:51 PM ^
*standard "way too early" disclaimers apply*
That would be a decent draw to get into the sweet 16. Winning in the sweet 16 seems far-fetched, but I'd like UM's chances against any of Iona, NCSt, Creighton, and Seton Hall (based on absolutely nothing other than my uninformed perception that UM is pretty good and those other teams not as much)
February 10th, 2012 at 2:59 PM ^
that Lunardi is pretty awful at predicting seeding, let alone which #4 seed will go in which region.
February 10th, 2012 at 3:33 PM ^
he's a little hit or miss, which i guess is the only way it can go when it comes to seeding. but some years he has been dead on. he is almost never off by more than one seed. he has us as the top 4 seed, which means that if he's off, we're at worst a mid 5 seed.
February 10th, 2012 at 4:14 PM ^
has a feature called "ranking the Bracketologists." Lunardi comes in 27th out of 44 bracketologists who have been doing this for at least 3 years. He's not particularly good at this stuff. He just has a huge microphone.
February 10th, 2012 at 4:39 PM ^
true, but most of the people ahead of him benefit from the small sample size. there's also no question that he has the most access b/c he works for the WWL.
February 10th, 2012 at 3:20 PM ^
NC State might be the best of that group. Haven't seen much of Creighton, but 2 losses in a row isn't helping their case. Obviously this is all hypothetical now though and I can nearly promise this won't be the match up Michigan has.
February 10th, 2012 at 2:54 PM ^
Mizzou as a 1 seed? I don't buy it
February 10th, 2012 at 3:10 PM ^
February 10th, 2012 at 3:13 PM ^
Mizzou probably has the best group of guards in the country and a big that can get the ball in the basket. They are quick, can handle the ball, and score. They should be dangerous come March. (Also look at their resume, which is quite solid).
February 10th, 2012 at 3:25 PM ^
I don's see mizzou as a #1 at all. I think OSU, Ken, Cuse, are clearly the top 3, and #4 could come out of about 5 teams but i don't think Mizzou is one of them.
February 10th, 2012 at 3:33 PM ^
I didn't say they were a bad team, but they don't strike me as a 1 seed. I don't know if I'm reading it right but they're ranked 76 in Kenpom's SOS and from an eye test only have a handful of good wins
February 10th, 2012 at 3:06 PM ^
I'd love that Sweet 16 matchup if the 1 and 4 seeds advance.
February 10th, 2012 at 3:28 PM ^
I'd like to think that 'Cuse might be the most favorable of any of these projected 1's given their sos and such, but I'm having a hard time seeing us match up favorably with a one loss team deeper and taller than us in the post.
February 10th, 2012 at 3:18 PM ^
Not seeing it if the season ended today. Not a good enough in-conference record. I see Michigan as a 5 seed now and IU as a 6 seed if the season ended today.
February 10th, 2012 at 3:34 PM ^
it's a weak year. who do you have in front of us/IU?
February 10th, 2012 at 3:34 PM ^
So, as I was looking at the remaining games, I wondered where Michigan would be seeded if they win out the balance of the regular season.
I know, I know, it is pretty unlikely. But here's the thing. As the season goes on Burke is only getting better at getting the ball to Morgan, let alone everyone else. Not only is Burke continuing to improve, but I am hoping that eventually, shots start falling for Hardaway in particular, but also for Smotrycz.
If the following happens:
- Burke continues to distribute the ball well, and even improves;
- Shots start falling for Hardaway;
- Everyone stays healthy,
well, Michigan could take a big jump upwards. While unlikely, if Stu, Novak, Hardaway, Smotrycz, Burke, and Vogrich are all hitting from beyond the arc, it could make Michigan almost unbeatable. Beilein said before the Indiana game, wouldn't it be great if everyone on the team had a good game at the same time? What if that happened for Ohio? That could allow us to beat them.
Honestly, Michigan should be able to win the other five games. And if they beat Ohio, well, it wouldn't get better than that.
So, what would happen if we win the last six? Would we be seeded 2nd? 3rd? Obviously, we'd have to win one or two in the Big 10 tourney as well. But looking at the remaining schedule, why not Michigan? Why not now?
Certainly, winning five and ending the regular season with 23 is well in reach, with another two in the tourney not being out of the question. Even if we lose to Northwestern in Evanston, it is very hard to see Michigan finishing with less than four more wins. I think they will be well set for a run to the sweet sixteen.
February 10th, 2012 at 3:52 PM ^
Winning out or only one more loss (including BTT) gets us a 2-seed.
Finish up 5-1 or 4-2 and get to semi's of BTT puts our floor at a 4-seed.
Any worse than that and we'll be jockying in very muddy waters between 5 and 8 seeds or worse.
(edit: oh and you can set the official "Tournament Bid Lock" counter to 2 wins!)
February 10th, 2012 at 6:27 PM ^
Very nice synopsis. I stopped reading everything else.
February 10th, 2012 at 4:26 PM ^
You make some good points and I like the optimism. There's no doubt we are at least a sweet 16 caliber team, but if we play to our complete potential then anything is possible. It would be a dream come true to make the final four and have the chance to go back to New Orleans and enjoy the debauchery, excellent food and all around great atmosphere of that city with Michigan fans and all those from the three other schools.
February 10th, 2012 at 4:17 PM ^
The 1st seed brackets I dont like Michigan to be in are UK and Ohio...I dont mind Mizzo and Cuse
February 10th, 2012 at 7:01 PM ^
At least, not as a 4 or 5 seed. Selection committee doesn't want teams from the same conference to meet until the regional finals. The exception is if a conference gets more than 8 teams in, and even then they'd prefer for upsets to happen for conference rivals to meet (so they might match a #1 with a #12, or a #2 with a #11, but probably not a #1 with a #4).
February 10th, 2012 at 7:48 PM ^
I'm pretty sure that the only way Michigan would face OSU in a 1-4/5 game is if the Big 10 got 9 teams in, therefore meaning that at least 2 Big 10 teams would have to be in the same 8 team section. I think the committee really tries to avoid conference rematches before the Elite 8 if they can help it.
That said, there's certainly the possibility for the league to get 9, with OSU, MSU, UM, IU, and UW looking like locks, Illinois having a good chance, and Minnesota, Northwestern, and Purdue on the bubble. Iowa probably killed their chances by getting blown out at Northwestern last night.
February 10th, 2012 at 4:51 PM ^
Mizzouri is good but I wouldn't mind seeing them in a possibe sweet 16 matchup just because they only go 7 deep (I know we aren't deep either) but I think this would be the best matchup. Really hope we don't get near Kentucky or OSU and Syracuse even worries me because although they don't have a suprstar they are one of the deeper teams in the country. I think we finish as a 5 seed but who knows. I wouldn't mind the set up of this bracket but Iona could be a tricky first round matchup...both them and Long Beach State will be tough matchups in any 4/13 matchup. Also, some of Lunardi's projections seem a little weird to me. Anyone else surprised to see UCONN as an 8 seed? Figured they would be much lower or not even in the tourney.
February 10th, 2012 at 4:54 PM ^
This W-L-W-L-W-L-W has to stop...we really need to go 5-1 down the stretch. A split with OSU and @ N'Western 3 days later is the most likely L.
6-0 would be AWESOME and make up for the poor showing @ Iowa.
After looking at the projected bracket earlier today. We REALLY need to get a seed between #3-#6...I don't think that provides the easiest road if we can get one of those 4 seeds.
February 10th, 2012 at 5:11 PM ^
Michigan has survived the toughest stretch of their schedule unscathed and is 2 wins from the magic number of 20 wins for the season. That's a positive new for Michigan especially when you consider that Hardaway, Smotrycz and Vogrich has been struggling shooting the ball and with their confidence.
February 10th, 2012 at 6:08 PM ^
Analyzing bracketology matchups is pretty hilarious to me. Even his bracket the day before selection sunday will be completely wrong in terms of region seedings past the 1's and 2's most likely. Let alone in february... I guess there's not really anything else to do though. When does football start again?
February 10th, 2012 at 6:31 PM ^
He has the best F'ing job in the world. He only has to do it for three months, nobody pays attention to it for two of those months, and he does not even have to be right the last month.
February 10th, 2012 at 7:24 PM ^
I just really hope Michigan can at least make the Sweet Sixteen.
February 10th, 2012 at 8:08 PM ^
Man, the Pac-12 with only 2 teams, an 11 and a 12 seed. That's really bad. Mountain West, West Coast Conference and Missouri Valley each have more than the Pac 12.