friday bracketology

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February 17th, 2012 at 1:25 PM
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ish
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7688
friday bracketology

the bracket matrix will be updated tomorrow:

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

in the interim, Lunardi has updated his bracket and now has Michigan as a #3 seed, which i don't recall seeing from any other bracketologist:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

ESPN's bubble watch now also has Michigan as a tourney lock:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

IMO, we still need one more win to be considered a lock. Another win would ensure an in-conference record above .500 (including B1G tournament games).

all concerns could disappear tomorrow if we BEAT OHIO.

 

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February 17th, 2012 at 1:30 PM | Nah, we're a lock (Score:4 Normal)
AAB
Joined: 01/14/2009
MGoPoints: 7196

Look at the "last four in" teams, then compare their resumes to Michigan's resume if it loses every remaining game.

Still not particularly close.  

There is no time, sir, at which ties do not matter.

February 17th, 2012 at 3:43 PM | B1G has the most Locks. (Score:1)
DaBigDaddy
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Joined: 08/11/2011
MGoPoints: 581

B1G has the most Locks.

Playing football on Wall Street

February 17th, 2012 at 4:03 PM | Michigan is in. RPI of 14, (Score:1)
Maize_in_spartyland
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Joined: 04/06/2011
MGoPoints: 738

Michigan is in. RPI of 14, SOS of 11, and 7-5 against the top 50 RPI.

I don't see them as a three seed though, and I generally don't put much stock in what Lunardi says. He overvalues some teams while not giving others enough credit. Michigan is likely on the 4 line right now, but could move to the 3 line with a win Saturday and/or strong showing in the Big Ten Tournament.

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February 17th, 2012 at 1:32 PM | Purdue should be considered a (Score:2)
jtmc33
Joined: 04/15/2009
MGoPoints: 4915

Purdue should be considered a 99% lock at 17-9 and 7-6 in conference.

The other teams (Nw, Illini, Minnesota) will be praying that the reputation of the Big 10 as the best conference will vault them over some arguably more deserving teams.

 

Class of '97: 4 Years -- 4 Four-loss seasons

February 17th, 2012 at 1:37 PM | Purdue has crappy wins (Score:3 Normal)
AAB
Joined: 01/14/2009
MGoPoints: 7196

Their best wins are Temple, Northwestern twice, and Miami (YTM).  And the Committee has repeatedly said that it doesn't care about conference record even the tiniest bit (everyone who has done one of the NCAA's mock selection things has confirmed that as well).

There is no time, sir, at which ties do not matter.

February 17th, 2012 at 2:34 PM | I think your argument (Score:2)
jtmc33
Joined: 04/15/2009
MGoPoints: 4915

I think your argument supports why N'Western, Minnesota and even Illinois are still bubble teams.  They have below .500 conference records but reasonably strong RPIs -- each with a couple impressive wins.   Is also the exact argument as to why even the "good" Pac-10 teams are on the bubble right now... even conference leader and 20-6 Cal is a bubble team.

But even with Purdue's negatives, they will be a team that finishes .500 or better in the best conference in the country.   That will make them a lock.

 

EDIT:   MSU at Purdue on Sunday.   Hopefully Sparty loses and Purdue gets that "GW" they are looking for.

Class of '97: 4 Years -- 4 Four-loss seasons

February 17th, 2012 at 2:56 PM | Should also add (Score:2)
AAB
Joined: 01/14/2009
MGoPoints: 7196

the Committee has repeatedly said it doesn't care about conferences either.  Here's the chairman of the committee recently:

 

"The bottom line is, we review each individual team sheet and each team is 'an independent' (in the process)," Hathaway said during a teleconference with media members. "We don't look at conference RPI (computer-based power ranking used for individual team analysis). We don't look at what conference teams are affiliated with. We're looking at the team's individual merit."

link

I get the argument that it's hard to go 9-9 in the Big 10 this year without getting some decent wins, but they still have games against Nebraska and Penn State, along with at Michigan, at Indiana, and home against MSU.  It's conceivable they can go 9-9 without having a win in the Big 10 better than Northwestern or Illinois.  

There is no time, sir, at which ties do not matter.

February 17th, 2012 at 1:47 PM | Big 10 RPI (Score:1)
Michigan4Life
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 5663

is the best out of all of the conference. I would expect 8-9 teams to be in the NCAA tourney.

February 17th, 2012 at 1:59 PM | i think it would be the first (Score:1)
ish
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7688

i think it would be the first time that a team gets in with a sub-.500 conference record.  it's bound to happen eventually, but it just feels odd.

February 17th, 2012 at 3:42 PM | A slew of teams have gotten (Score:2)
Raoul
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Joined: 09/29/2009
MGoPoints: 5447

A slew of teams have gotten into the tournament with sub-.500 conference records over the years. See this article from a few years ago.

Twitter: @Raoul_000

February 17th, 2012 at 4:24 PM | i stand corrected then.  (Score:1)
ish
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7688

i stand corrected then.  still, we don't want to be on that list.

February 17th, 2012 at 2:18 PM | I'm thinking 7. OSU, MSU, us, (Score:1)
bacon1431
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Joined: 07/26/2008
MGoPoints: 3283

I'm thinking 7. OSU, MSU, us, Wisconsin, and Indiana are pretty much locks at this point. Purdue is looking decent. Then N'W, Illinois, and Minnesota are all incredibly bubblicious. I think only one of them gets in. Two max. Two of N'W, Illinois, and Minnesota will probably play each other in the first round of the BTT. The loser is probably left out.

For a' that, an' a' that, 
Our toils obscure an' a' that, 
The rank is but the guinea's stamp, 
The man's the gowd for a' that. 
February 17th, 2012 at 4:07 PM | Sorry but Purdue just isn't a (Score:1)
Maize_in_spartyland
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Sorry but Purdue just isn't a lock yet. They are probably in, but by no means a lock.

RPI 46, SOS 31; RPI is a bit high. They are 6-6 against the top 50 RPI, which is good, but no marquee wins. Had they won at Columbus, I think you would have an argument.

Further, they are just above 500 in conference and can still finish below 500. When teams are below 500 in conference that immediately becomes a red flag for the Selection Committee.

Wins over Nebraska, Penn State and one of the other three (MSU, UM, or IU) will put Purdue in, barring an early round flameout in the Big Ten Tournament.

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February 17th, 2012 at 1:40 PM | I know it's very unlikely (Score:2)
jhender85
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Joined: 10/25/2008
MGoPoints: 1382

I know it's very unlikely that this occurs, but man, a UofM vs. SDSU match up in the 2nd round would be a pretty special game!

Also, is it just me, or do I like our chances to advance further in the tournament in the situation where Lunardi had us at 4 seed than I do now at a 3 seed?

February 17th, 2012 at 2:10 PM | Well when Harvard beats Duke (Score:4 Normal)
Space Coyote
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MGoPoints: 4365

We can play them in the sweet 16 game!  All our ex-coach are belong to us?

4/23/13 - Denard Robinson's NFL Future, Part II

February 17th, 2012 at 1:43 PM | Huguenin over at Yahoo/Rivals (Score:2 Normal)
sundaybluedysunday
Joined: 01/07/2009
MGoPoints: 382

Huguenin over at Yahoo/Rivals also projects Michigan as a 3 seed, so the idea is gaining some steam. It's amazing what a 2 win week followed by absolutely no games for 5 days can do for your tournament projection.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news?slug=mh-huguenin_ncaa_mens_tournament_projected_field_021512

February 17th, 2012 at 1:46 PM | exceedingly improbable dream (Score:2 Normal)
swan flu
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exceedingly improbable dream bracket:

3 seed Michigan matches up with 14 seed Harvard in the first round, 6 seed SDSU in the second round, 2 seed Duke in the sweet 16, 1 seed Ohio State in the elite 8... for a birth in the final 4, where we beat 2 seed Michigan State and 2 seed North Carolina for a national championship.

 

<insert meme here>:  BEAT ALL THE RIVALS!!!

Tenim un nom el sap tothom. Barca, Barca, BAAARCA!

February 17th, 2012 at 1:51 PM | If that fantasy were to ever (Score:4 Normal)
jhender85
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MGoPoints: 1382

If that fantasy were to ever happen, I would retire from watching U of M basketball afterwards...assuming the heart attacks from suspense and excitement didn't get to me first.

February 17th, 2012 at 2:09 PM | That Tourney Run would go (Score:2)
Lionsfan
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MGoPoints: 3903

That Tourney Run would go down as the greatest run in the history and future of MIchigan Basketball

If you're doing nothing, how do you know when you're finished?

StraightDave owes me a steak dinner

February 17th, 2012 at 1:51 PM | Here is what is scary - (Score:1)
ijohnb
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2784

awesome.  You put a win over OSU on the resume and take care of a couple of those winnable road games, we might start talking previously unthinkable things in terms of seeding.  The put a stretch together here and sweet 16 could become a foregone conclusion.  I'm not sayin...... I'm just sayin.

February 17th, 2012 at 2:03 PM | I agree with your premise (Score:1 Overrated)
Carcajous
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MGoPoints: 1577

I agree with your premise but..... raise your hand if you think we beat OSU tomorrow.  Anyone?

February 17th, 2012 at 2:06 PM | Both hands up (Score:5 Normal)
JeepinBen
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Beat Ohio

"Over? Did you say, over? Nothing is over until we decide it is!"

February 17th, 2012 at 2:46 PM | I don't know who that guy is, (Score:3 Normal)
BlueVoix
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MGoPoints: 5546

I don't know who that guy is, but Zack Novak has no legs.

February 17th, 2012 at 3:15 PM | Perhaps... (Score:2)
BiSB
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MGoPoints: 27888

But he is the king of legless hover-breakdancing.

They no longer call me Bisbiño

February 17th, 2012 at 3:19 PM | That (Score:1)
ijohnb
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2784

is a disturbing picture.

February 17th, 2012 at 2:08 PM | I think a lot of people will (Score:2)
zguy517
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MGoPoints: 2026

I think a lot of people will say they think we will (myself included). Not a guarantee by any stretch of the imagination, but definitely winnable.

February 17th, 2012 at 2:10 PM | I sure as hell do. Why the (Score:2)
BraveWolverine730
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Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2743

I sure as hell do. Why the doom and gloom? We're unbeaten at Crisler and it's not as if Ohio has looked like a juggernaut this month. It'll be a tough challenge, but I have faith Beilein will have the team ready. 

" I want to win Big 10 titles. Multiply. Consecutively. I just made that word up (multiply). I'm like that. I'm good at Scrabble."

February 18th, 2012 at 10:23 AM | Wow.  OK, I guess I should (Score:2)
Carcajous
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Joined: 07/05/2009
MGoPoints: 1577

Wow.  OK, I guess I should clarify.  I think we CAN win, of course.  I'll be decked out in maize and blue as will my entire family for the game, cheering for Michigan.  

If, for some reason, I was forced to bet something substantial (or my life) on the game straight up.... Well, let's just say I'd go with KenPom.

February 17th, 2012 at 2:11 PM | Emotional Game (Score:1)
El Tigre
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Joined: 03/14/2011
MGoPoints: 552

I think Michigan can beat anybody at home.  We were dominating MSU for a long stretch when we played them in Crisler. It can happen.  Go Blue!

February 17th, 2012 at 2:54 PM | (No subject) (Score:2)
robbyt003
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Joined: 10/25/2010
MGoPoints: 2586

“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing” - Bo Schembechler

February 17th, 2012 at 2:37 PM | Just a question. Does anyone (Score:2)
Mich_Faithful
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MGoPoints: 6467

Just a question. Does anyone know how the B1G tourney is shaping up as far as matchups and seedings are looking?

How 'bout I punchisize your face, for free.

February 17th, 2012 at 2:43 PM | I was thinking yesterday if (Score:1)
aiglick
Joined: 11/27/2010
MGoPoints: 1442

I was thinking yesterday if we can win the next five regular season games plus make a decent run in the BTT Michigan could conceivably get a two seed. If we were to do all this our wins would be up there with almost anybody in the country and the quality would improve since this scenario would mean beating MSU and/or OSU for the title.

I know that right now the most important thing is tomorrow. Realistically, I think our floor is a 4 seed if we take care of business the rest of the way with few slip ups. Some of those games last night could have helped but oh well.

Beat Ohio Go Blue.

Here's hoping for a bright future. This team does try hard and I will continue to support them.

February 17th, 2012 at 3:13 PM | I really hope we play sparty (Score:-1 Normal)
February 17th, 2012 at 3:38 PM | ehhh... (Score:2 Normal)
El Fuego
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Joined: 11/28/2011
MGoPoints: 568

I wouldn't call a team that dominated Ohio at their place the most overrated in the country.  They are really good.  If you say otherwise, you must not be watching that much basketball.

Me fail English?  That's unpossible!

February 17th, 2012 at 3:43 PM | MSU (Score:1)
Gary_B
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Joined: 01/18/2011
MGoPoints: 139

Could MSU get an easier path to the Final 4 in this scenario?

February 17th, 2012 at 3:47 PM | They didn't really dominate (Score:-1 Flamebait)
February 17th, 2012 at 4:49 PM | You don't know much about basketball (Score:-1 Overrated)
February 17th, 2012 at 9:32 PM | Please stop saying "us" and (Score:2 Normal)
BigBlue02
Joined: 06/29/2009
MGoPoints: 1853

Please stop saying "us" and "we" when referring to Michigan. It really isn't that tough to see you are a spartan

February 17th, 2012 at 5:19 PM | If Michigan Wins on Saturday, (Score:2)
rob6reid
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Joined: 01/08/2012
MGoPoints: -75866

If Michigan Wins on Saturday, they will have beaten every team in the B1G this year except... Iowa.

February 17th, 2012 at 5:25 PM | Lack of quality road wins (Score:-1 Trolling)
February 17th, 2012 at 5:57 PM | Really dude (Score:1)
CampbellWMEC909
Joined: 02/17/2012
MGoPoints: 10

Really dude, you sound like you are a sparty. We definitley get a 2 or 3 seed and if you think sparty outplayed ohio or wisky then you are delusional. sparty got lucky in those games and will get bounced out of the big dance in the first round. Book it.

February 17th, 2012 at 6:56 PM | According to Lunardi (Score:2)
UMmasotta
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Joined: 08/18/2011
MGoPoints: 18

UM would play Duke in the Sweet 16 (assuming everything goes according to plan). I would love and hate this. There is no other team I would like to knock out more than Duke (closely followed by Ohio). But I would also have nightmares of runners in the lane...

February 17th, 2012 at 7:05 PM | As of now I would say we (Score:1)
crjorgensen
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Joined: 01/23/2012
MGoPoints: 82

As of now I would say we would be a 4 seed but if we beat OSU on Saturday I think we could possibly move up to a 3 seed come tourney time assuming we don't collapse. It will be interesting how Purdue does now with Kelsey Barlow being kicked off the team  and D.J. Byrd being suspended after being arrested for public intoxication. They should be able to finish 9-9 in conference and although W-L may not necessairly matter in conference that should get them in the tourney. Illinois seems to be fading fast but they are the most talented in my opinion of them, NW, and Minny. I think the Big Ten gets 7 in the tourney, maybe 8 if one of these 3 go deep in the Big Ten conference tourney.

February 17th, 2012 at 9:30 PM | Realistic title shot/3 seed (Score:0)
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