Fourth Quarter Scoring Comparison - OSU

Submitted by jballen4eva on

I have noticed a criticismon of Coach Harbaugh on the MGoBoard that I sometimes shared: his tendency towards conservative playcalling late in games.  

After yesterday's game, I decided to look at Michigan's games in the Harbaugh Era that were at least somewhat close (I defined as decided by 14 points or less).  In the Harbaugh Era, Michigan has had 12 such games.  In those games, Michigan outscored its opponents in the fourth quarter 74-69.  Michgan's record in those games is 7-5. 

I then looked at Ohio State's record for "close" games since 2015.  I wanted to see if Harbaugh's approach was (a) even a thing and (b) whether it was that different than another successful college coach.  

OSU has only had 9 such games since September 2015.  In those games, OSU's record was 7-2.  Blessed with a poor memory and limited info, my initial take was that Meyer probably keeps his team's collective foot on the opposing team's collective neck late in games, rather than "playing not to lose."  

Well, that take was wrong.  In the fourth quarter of those games, OSU was outscored 41-70, including 4 games in which OSU was shut out in the fourth quarter (OSU was 2-2 in those games).

Is there anything to make of this, other than that this is a small sample size, and that there are too many other factors to look to fourth quarter scoring in close or somewhat close games?  Or is it possible that OSU the past two years has been pretty lucky?  

[For what it's worth, since Setember 2015 Alabama has gone 7-2 in games decided by 14 points or less.  In those games, it outscored its opponents in the fourth quarter 111-94.]

 

 

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Jeff09

September 4th, 2017 at 12:25 PM ^

I don't think he was calling conservative plays, he called a pass play to Crawford that would have been a walk in touchdown if speight didn't completely miss, and called a deep ball to Eubanks that was thrown perfectly, and both were late in the game IIRC. The real problem is we suck in the red zone right now, it seemed to me like we had difficulty running and passing and didn't use our massive receiving targets well. If we convert at all we'll in the red zone this game is a total laugher and we're not even talking about performance in close games right now

Joined: 06/25/2011

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Jeff09

September 4th, 2017 at 12:51 PM ^

Fair, although you could kind of argue that letting Wilton take the offensive calls into his own hands at that point in the game as another form of aggression. I just don't think our offensive play calling at the end of the game were obviously conservative or ineffective

Joined: 06/25/2011

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stephenrjking

September 4th, 2017 at 12:50 PM ^

Red Zone is tough when you aren't getting great push off the line and your QB is trying to avoid throwing a pick. I don't think there's much question that Speight was being cautious with a lead given what had already happened and I think that was the right approach given the play of our defense. 

Joined: 03/15/2012

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Squash34

September 5th, 2017 at 2:01 AM ^

Moreover, he was calling pass plays often in the Iowa game last year to try and hold on to the lead because the run blocking was bad. Additionally, he dialed up a bomb late in a tie game verse Wisconsin to break the tie. Finally, he actually called more pass plays verse OSU in the fourth quarter because, again the line last year was ineffective at running the ball, particularly against good defenses that knew you were going to run. I'm sure there is more too. The point is, fans seem to think that since they have not been able to close out some close games it's because of passive play calling. He is not trying to run, run run and punt if they don't get the first.

Joined: 09/13/2016

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myislanduniverse

September 5th, 2017 at 11:55 AM ^

I agree with you that it isn't necessarily conservative play-calling, since salting a late lead is also an exercise in clock management. As such, it's less an issue of red-zone effectiveness than it is with the offensive line's ability to get the push needed to move the chains on the ground when they need to keep the clock running.

 

Usually it's riskier in a short clock situation to attempt to move the chains through the air and turn the ball back over to your opponent with extra clock, but knowing that the OL run blocking is going to be one of the primary weaknesses this season, I think we may just see more late game pass plays.

Joined: 09/06/2016

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rice4114

September 4th, 2017 at 12:28 PM ^

The OSU a d Clemsons will always have a better record in close games. They can call QB dive on 3rd and 2 or 4th and 1 and its almost automatic. It makes up for a lot of coaching decencies.

Joined: 08/26/2010

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bdneely4

September 4th, 2017 at 12:42 PM ^

He did enough to beat a top 20 team on a neutral field in our first game of the season. Bama and Clemson prior to Watson have not had an elite QB but still were able to be elite teams (especially in Bama's case). Harbaugh will continue to improve any QB that suits up and starts for our team. The expectations for many UM fans are completely unrealistic. It is becoming annoying reading all the pessimistic comments over the entire offseason and the last couple of days. Does Speight need to get better? Absolutely, and I am confident that he will. I don' believe he has met his "ceiling" (whatever that means).Maybe I am the only one who thinks this way, but I bet I am not.

Joined: 01/06/2009

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UM Fan from Sydney

September 4th, 2017 at 12:28 PM ^

You're allowed to be conservative when you know the opposing offense can't do shit against your stout defense.

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DCGrad

September 4th, 2017 at 12:32 PM ^

Is that we used to have big time playmakers who stepped it up late in games. Guys like Manningham, Brady, Woodson, etc. who made a big play when needed. We've been missing guys like that in this program consistently. Sure there have been  flashes of it (Denard-->Roundtree, Gibbons, Gallon), but we need a guy who isn't afraid to take control in the 4th. Speight seems to wilt (no pun intented) late in close games at least so far. I don't think it's the play calling that's hurting it's the lack of playmakers on offense/special teams.

Joined: 09/20/2014

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jwfsouthpaw

September 4th, 2017 at 10:47 PM ^

2015 Minnesota (game-winning TD drive), 2016 Wisconsin (game-winning TD pass midway through the 4th quarter), 2016 OSU overtime (game-saving TD pass), and heck even the FSU game (though Evans of course notched the go-ahead TD) strongly disagree. Speight has led the team to a late game-tying or game-winning TD in almost 25% of his starts.

Speight's problems have been well-documented, but wilting late in games has not been one of them and is an unfair criticism.

The lack of consistent playmakers is very valid, however.  Whenever the team needed a big play from Darboh or whoever last year, it was not to be.

Joined: 01/14/2009

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Farnn

September 4th, 2017 at 12:33 PM ^

I'd say there's more related to the lack of a reliable running game for Michigan.  Most of the running production Michigan has gotten under Harbaugh has been a result of smart play calling and additions to the playbook from game to game.  That is less successful when opponents have seen the new wrinkle for 3 quarters and know you are very likely to run the ball if you are trying to eat clock.  

One nice sign of an improvement here was on the 3rd to last drive, Michigan strung together a handful of productive running plays and drove most of the way down the field while the game was still technically competitive.  There were also a handful of runs for no gain in the 4th but 4 out of 10 4th quarter rushes for more than 5 yards is a big step forward against what should be a solid defense.

Joined: 07/07/2008

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TheTruth41

September 4th, 2017 at 12:43 PM ^

Because points in the 4th when you're playing from behind is a bit different than points when you're ahead.  If you're looking at holding leads I'd look more towards first downs rather than points.  This seems to be our achille's heel.  If we get first downs we don't necessarily need to score points to win in the games we're already ahead in.  Much different dynamic when Michigan is behind in the game and looking to score...though even then first downs would be a good indication you're moving the ball to score.  Both the Iowa game and OSU game last year we didn't need to score points to win, we just needed first downs.

Joined: 10/07/2010

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Alpaca

September 4th, 2017 at 12:46 PM ^

I think you need to take into consideration of how good Meyer's 2nd half changes are. Lot of close games at the half turn into blowouts. And they have had really great running game so even if he was slowing the game down like Harbaugh he still does good. Our running game isn't as explosive as OSUs in recent memory

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jballen4eva

September 4th, 2017 at 1:08 PM ^

Thanks for the insight, everyone.  It makes sense that establishing a solid, "traditional" running game will improve Michigan's chances to hold scores late in games.  If nothing else, it was a good sign that Florida's defense looked pretty gassed by the end of the game.  

Joined: 11/20/2012

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Fieldy'sNuts

September 4th, 2017 at 1:42 PM ^

I don't know but this defense is so nasty it has the potential to shut out ohio state. Im serious. If Clemson can do it THIS Don Brown defense certainly has a chance to do it in the Big House. I can't even imagine what Fickell and whoever Cinci's QB is are thinking after seeing film of the Michigan-Florida game. Christ.

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denardogasm

September 4th, 2017 at 2:45 PM ^

The problem is both their familiarity and hatred are much greater for us than for Clemson, and they know for a year in advance that they're playing us, vs a week or two before Clemson. That said, our defense pretty much locked up OSU last year but Speight gave them too many points. Shoulda been a blowout. Hopefully Barrett maintains his ineptitude through November.

Joined: 09/11/2011

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Wolfman

September 4th, 2017 at 9:45 PM ^

and it's no surprise we are going to experience confusion with a combination of youth and new parts spread throughout. Most notable is the receiver position where one of the three -normally Butt-would make themselves wide open somehow when we were in the red zone that enabled us to put it in the end zone. Some runners, i.e., Higdon might be a bit better than Evans in picking up the tough three, although Evans w/o the trip looked like he was going in. We also experienced a few penalties we did not last season early that kept the Big Guy away from the "and Goal" at the one yard line. First game, lots of mental mistakes and physical "oh shits" in the red zone; not unexpected, but should be corrected. As someone said, the TD they took away, Evans trip, TD gift from FL to Speight that he refused to accept, etc.,as these things disappear so too will the closer scores. We dominated that damn game and if we don't miss three offensive possessions in a row late in the second quarter, we score FGs after first TD and we win big. We still basically doubled up on them with all these first game mistakes whereas their problems came by virtue of our fastest, swarming, smothering, hardest ass hitting defense in the nation. Because these offensive mistakes will lessen each game, the defense -believe it or don't-will only get better. You had to love how he went to multiple fronts to offset the loss of all the defensive linemen with the expectations the new members will learn as season progresses to give us even more options. Considering all this, this "seeming" issue really might be nothing at all. 

Joined: 07/23/2008

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Tuebor

September 5th, 2017 at 12:00 PM ^

Running game is a work in progress.  Our biggest run plays came on what Harbaugh called "off-schedule" 3rd and longs and one 4th down conversion where Isaac bounced outside after the middle got plugged.

 

To ice out games you have to be able to get 4 yards consistently on the ground.  We aren't there yet.

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