Fourth Down Conversions

Submitted by raleighwood on

This is my first Forum post so please bear with me....

I went to the game yesterday and can still hear the damn cowbells ringing in my ears.  They were still ringing outside of my hotel well into the night.  Anyway, I wanted to share a few observations about the game.

Fourth down conversions seemed to be a huge issue to me.  Mississippi State went 5/5 (100%).  Michigan went 0/5 (0%).  It might be relevant to note that MSU was 9/17 (53%) on third down conversions.  Michigan was 2/10 (20%).   That's right, Michigan completed a whopping TWO of its third or fourth down conversions on the day.  Don't kid yourself, this is not a Top 10 offense.

You could tell that Mississippi State never had to think twice about punting once they crossed midfield.  They were pretty methodical about moving the ball down the field and typically were in fourth and short (less than three) when the situation arose.  It was easy for them.

On the other hand, Michigan seemed to be in fourth and long (more than three) most of the time.  Also, Michigan never really used third down to set up a fourth down play.  This is has been a problem all season, especially in obvious four down situations.  Why not set up a third down play that will allow for fourth and short instead of taking two consecutive shots at lower percentage plays (and failing both times)?

Basically, Mississippi State could do what ever it wanted on fourth down and Michigan was at its mercy all day.

A few other comments....

I think that there were two reviewed plays (potential fumbles) that were both ruled in MSU's favor and ultimately resulted in TD's.  The reviews were correct, I'm just pointing out a few brief rays of hope that we had.

The defense couldn't get any pressure from the edge.  It was maddening to see the whole middle of the field open up for Relf while Michigan struggled to get pressure.

The Michigan fanbase was completely out of the game in the fourth quarter.  MSU was in a goal line situation late in the game.  None of the Michigan fans in that end of the field even bothered to stand up and make a little noise.  Apathy had set in and it wasn't pretty. 

Other than that, Jacksonville seemed like a pretty fun town.  I'm strongly considering heading down there for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party next year.

MadtownMaize

January 2nd, 2011 at 10:23 PM ^

how many times did UM go for it on fourth down this year. It must have been some sort of record. Earlier in the week I was watching a game between Clemson and S. Florida, and the announcers mentioned that Clemson was 2/3 on fourth down for the SEASON!

   

Raoul

January 2nd, 2011 at 10:44 PM ^

The season football stats at mgoblue.com have U-M converting 12 of 28 fourth-down attempts on the season (43%). That's only a little more than 2 attempts per game.

Opponents attempted the same number but converted 21 (75%).

According to this NCAA stats page, U-M was tied for 8th in the FBS in fourth-down attempts (their 43% conversion rate ranked them 88th). Georgia Tech was first in attempts with 40.

justingoblue

January 2nd, 2011 at 10:23 PM ^

Apathy had set in and it wasn't pretty. 

Sad to say this was me as well. Granted, it was my living room while everyone else in the house retreated to their rooms, but still. I hate this dull, numb feeling.

Mich_Faithful

January 2nd, 2011 at 10:34 PM ^

I hate it when you know you're going to lose and you can't stand to watch it so you change the channel. But then you feel bad because its Michigan and you think hey they might start a comeback so you change it back. More of the same stuff so you change the channel again and the process repeats itself until the game is over. Followed by a grr from frustration, and a sigh that its over.

justingoblue

January 3rd, 2011 at 3:52 AM ^

Not about to start another meaningless thread because I have nothing that new to add. But I just feel that about Michigan football in general right now. In August or September if anyone had said Denard was going to be gone I would have flipped shit. Today I read a comment to that effect and had the sinking feeling that it would just be typical.

The only thing that keeps me hopeful is realizing that there are down times, that sometimes things are for the best no matter how it seems at the time, and that no matter how much you love something, sometimes it just isn't meant to be.

No matter what happens, I'll be there in August wearing maize and blue proudly.

ST3

January 2nd, 2011 at 10:31 PM ^

I've been thinking the same thing since looking at the boxscore yesterday. We had the 0 for 5 on fourth down, plus the 11 yard punt, the missed FG, and two TOs (I think.) That's like 9 turnovers total - change in possession without the benefit of a 35-40 yard net punt. If RR was just trying to keep it close and not embarrass the team, he should have punted on a couple of those 4th downs. But he was desperately going for a win or a change in momentum. For all the fans that boo when a coach punts on 4th down, Saturday is what happens when you go for it 5 times and miss all five. Short fields for the opposition usually ends up in scores. I'm pretty sure Lloyd Carr would have punted five times (or had a decent FG kicker he could count on, at least 11 or 12 out of 13 years.)

However, while RR seemed to be very aggressive on the 4th down calls, he seemed VERY conservative with Denard. After the first two drives, there were very few designed runs for Denard. Had Tate been available, maybe Denard runs more and the offense produces more than 14 points.

I also noticed that Martin only had 1 assisted tackle. I know nose guards aren't supposed to make tackles, but when Mike is 100%, he usually gets into the backfield a few times. I wonder if he wasn't 100% yet. Ankles can take more than a month sometimes. If it was just MSU effectively doubling him, I would hope that our defensive coaches would move him around on the line. But that supposes our D-coaches are able to make in-game adjustments. Sadly, that's just wishful thinking.

Craziest stat of the game - both teams averaged 3.5 yards per carry. The problem was we had the two long Denard runs, and a big sack of MSU. Subtract those plays and it was more in MSU's favor. The 18-23 passing from Relf didn't help either.

hartattack26

January 2nd, 2011 at 11:09 PM ^

I was sitting in the corner of the south endzone , we only had 2-3 cowbells around 60+ michigan fans (a lot of michigan player's families) and it was demoralizing, it's no wonder they banned those from SEC games, I'm going to have nightmares of the michigan defense with cowbells playing the soundtrack.

profitgoblue

January 3rd, 2011 at 10:19 AM ^

I came away from the game thinking that the defense forced the offense's hand and took it out of its game plan.  The defense performed so poorly (or was outplayed so greatly) that the offense was forced to throw way more than Rodriguez wanted and forced third and long way too often.  Since the defense was not going to stop MSU, Rodriguez was forced to go for it on 4th down when he may not have done so, at least not every time.  The offense definitely did not play as well as it could, but I think the defensive failures had a much bigger impact on offensive performance in the past 4-5 games than most people realize.