Forde Yard Dash predicts UM to beat NW, MSU, OSU, contend for playoff.

Submitted by BostonWolverine on

In his weekly article for Yahoo!, Pat Forde predicts the following things will happen: 

• M will end Northwestern's undefeated season this weekend

• M will end MSU's undefeated season on 10/17

• M will end OSU's undefeated season on 11/28

• M will have a chance at making the playoffs

He goes on to say: 

The Wolverines have allowed 14 points in the last four games, and if they win what could be a three-and-out-a-thon against Northwestern on Saturday they will likely come into Oct. 17 against Michigan State playing better than the Spartans. Win that game, and Michigan State will taste a defeat most bitter at a time when it assumed it had the upper hand in the state. Keeping winning from there, and Harbaugh-Urban I could be the stuff of legend. The Michigan man-crush hero worship already in full effect over Harbaugh would reach screaming-teenage-girls-over-One-Direction levels. It would rival the Saban idolatry in Alabama, perhaps even exceed it.

I mean, sure, NSFMF, but it's a fun read. 

Link to the full article: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/forde-yard-dash--predicting-when-each-undefeated-team-will-lose-032638433-ncaaf.html

Wolvie3758

October 6th, 2015 at 3:20 PM ^

in fact it really wasnt all that impressive...defense of course not wthstanding BUT I thought BYU was our best game to this point...and we have to imporve on that to beat NW and MSU...we still have work to do

charblue.

October 6th, 2015 at 10:46 AM ^

the same as Harbaugh's, Congrats. Thanks. Next. We move on till the end of the show and see where it takes us. You can't build a team until its finished being built. And you don't know what your gonna get till the job is finished. Every project has issues and problems to deal with before it's complete. And you're never satisfied or comfortable with what you've got till you're done and can fully appreciate the effort.

I mean in 1997, no one knew how good the team was until it went to Happy Valley and raised the roof. Then it got blown off in late November and raised again at the Rose Bowl. That's the only NC experience I recall for this program and that's how it was done,

Indiana Blue

October 6th, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^

but they have showed us their hands.  However it's not what the "experts" told everyone it would be.  There is no reason to believe that OSU or MSU has some "wild card" that they would only use against us.  So far this season, we have all played 5 games and at this point Michigan has played better football against tougher opponents that either OSU or MSU, and that is simply a fact.

Past results are not indicative ... blah, blah, blah   Plenty of football left ot be played, but I love tha fact that Michigan's newly earned respect is 100% based on this year's team.  OSU and MSU hype is still based on last year's results - which doesn't count for squat !!!

Go Blue!

ijohnb

October 6th, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^

they haven't.  MSU and OSU just came off the sleepiest portion of their schedule.  Teams have peaks and valleys throughout the season.  The last time Michigan State "tried" they beat Oregon, the last time OSU "tried" they blew out Virginia Tech in Blacksburg.  I could give a shit less about Purdue and Indiana, same for Central and NIU.  People who think that MSU and OSU are the teams that you have seen the past couple of weeks are crazy.  We needed a goal line stop to beat Ball State in 2006.  Ohio State needed a mirable to beat Purdue in 2002.  These teams were not all of the sudden "not good" for these weeks, they took weeks off, plain and simple, and that is what State and Ohio State have done.  People who don't think these teams are legit are in for a rude awakening.  I am more confident about this State game than I have been in close to 10 years but that does not mean that State is not a very formidable team.

In reply to by ijohnb

BigBlue02

October 6th, 2015 at 1:24 PM ^

But when you play 5 games and look shitty in all of them, you aren't "taking a game off," you're playing shitty. Being up one TD against CMU in the fourth quarter and having Purdue driving to tie/win the game with 2 minutes to go doesn't mean MSU is taking games off, it means they aren't the second best team in the country.

In reply to by ijohnb

Newton Gimmick

October 6th, 2015 at 2:16 PM ^

I think you were the guy who -- after I said I thought Purdue would scare the daylights out of MSU -- that MSU would obliterate Purdue and that you had observed MSU and they are just as good as past years.  Please excuse us if we raise an eyebrow at your insights and/or predictions.

I'm partially buying the idea that OSU is ironing out the kinks.  MSU?  They flat-out look like crap.  (And no, this is not like past years where they played shutdown D in September while the offense figured itself out).  I'm sure we'll get their best effort and it will be a tough game but as of now that's a pick-'em at worst for U-M.

ijohnb

October 6th, 2015 at 3:01 PM ^

they went up 21-0 on Purdue in the first quarter.  Yes, they let things get a little too interesting, but Purdue was "driving to take the lead" only if you consider flailing a hail mary on 4th and 15 while getting pummelled in your backfield as "driving." 

And look at your post.  You say that State is crap and that they are a pick em for Michigan.  WHAT THE HELL does that say about Michigan.  People, we don't want to denigrate the BIG, that is not how to acheive elite status.  How does it benefit us in the least to try to "prove" that State sucks.  It is completely counterproductive to all causes.

 

Indiana Blue

October 6th, 2015 at 3:18 PM ^

not sure why the continued explaining.  Just look at their offensive and defensive numbers this year vs. last.  Football, like most sports, is not a game in which you magically say "ok, now it's time to play".   MSU's defense is nowhere in the same universe as last season.  The offense is middling at best.  They held on to beat a very bad Purdue team at home (and they didn't go up by 21 until the 2nd qtr) ... but this wasn't new this season.   Injuries have changed the landscape at MSU.

Michigan has its own offensive issues, but none on the defensive end.  

Go Blue!

ijohnb

October 6th, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^

Man. So if we beat them it doesn't matter because they suck and if we lose to them it is because we reeeeaaaally suck. You have set it up nicely there for us. Who needs Valenti when our own fans will set up the self defeating narrative our selves!!! I think State is a really good team and it is going to be a really good win when we beat them.

Newton Gimmick

October 6th, 2015 at 5:19 PM ^

instead you rely on rhetorical flourish and hyperbole (I'm being generous; another word would be "lying") to mask what, on your part, has been very bad prognostication and analysis:

1. "went up 21-0 on Purdue in the 1st quarter" (truth: 2nd quarter.  Lies make Baby Jesus cry. More truthfully, I could also say Purdue outscored MSU 21-3 in the latter two quarters).

2. "Purdue was 'driving to take the lead'" (sarcastically) (response: you mean much like they 'drove' to cut into the lead three other times?)

3. "flailing 'hail mary' on '4th & 15'" (would have also accepted: they had a 1st down at midfield and a 2nd & 4 in MSU territory.  I suppose MSU was cool with that because, you know, they weren't really trying in this game).

4. My original post was that Purdue would "scare" MSU and you said MSU would "obliterate" them.  Google "Michigan State Purdue 2015" and see the words "scare" and "brink of upset" to see how most writers saw this game. (And anecdotal note: I was at a Detroit bar with a couple MSU fans who exhaled in audible relief after Purdue's 'Hail Mary'). 

5. To clarify: "State looks like crap" =/= "State IS crap" (according to your paraphrasing). These are all relative statements.  I'm sure they will play up for U-M, and based on the talent we assumed they had, the edge at QB, and the problems we assumed U-M would have (e.g. offensive playmaking, turnovers), for this game to be at-worst a pick-'em is remarkable, particularly considering MSU is undefeated and in the Top 5. 

6. "How does it benefit us?"  You brought this up in the other thread and it completely undermines all of your arguments.  If you are blatantly saying you are trying to spin and gerrymander the facts so that MSU looks better than they are (much like a certain loud-mouthed Italian radio host that you mentioned in your other reply) then that is a completely different discussion, one I'm not interested in.  I like analyzing what actually IS, and not getting into an SEC-style circle jerk to promote our B1G opponents.

 

ijohnb

October 6th, 2015 at 7:53 PM ^

"Play up for us.". We have beat them once since 2007. Wow, it is true. Some Michigan fans are dilusional. You and I have a much different perspective on this rivalry. And as for Valenti, he does not claim that state is better than they are, he shortchanges them so that if we compete it is because they are a "bad" State team, decimated by injuries. Don't buy into that shit man. No dude. It is a really good State team who has one 11 straight games and we are going to kick their ass and IT MATTERS. You are the one buying into Valenti narrative, not me.

Blue-Chip

October 6th, 2015 at 9:43 AM ^

I still don't see wins over both of the rivals without improvement from the offense. Not trying to be Debbie Downer, but I think there are some very real limitations to this team as it stands today.

Eye of the Tiger

October 6th, 2015 at 9:48 AM ^

Right now I feel like we are going to win each of the next two games, though of course neither will be easy and both could easily be losses. This also still feels like a team that drops an unexpected one on the road.




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Moonlight Graham

October 6th, 2015 at 9:59 AM ^

He's not really outright predicting this, he's sort of presenting a plausible scenario and saying it could happen, but he's not going on record that he thinks it will happen. 

I hate the way he has to "number" everything so that his topics (or whatever) add up to "forty." At least he doesn't seem to be doing the "Dash-ettes" any more. He made it sound like all those actresses and models actually cared about his column and he knew them somehow, and it came off as super creepy. 

alum96

October 6th, 2015 at 9:55 AM ^

Doing research on NW this week they also are talking playoffs.  Based on resume - if they knock off UM and just have to play West teams they right now have an easier path in regular season.  With the same issues on offense of course!

If they beat UM and Iowa next 2 weeks,they have some not so great teams like Neb PSU and Wisc along with B10 baby seals left.  They avoid OSU and MSU.

Iowa avoids OSU MSU and UM.  I havent gone over to their boards to research because we dont play them and well...they are Iowa.  But probably some dude there is talking playoff too.

Iowa - NW is going to be a huge game next week if NW pulls off this upset.

 

WestQuad

October 6th, 2015 at 9:52 AM ^

Our ofense still needs a lot of improvement.  DeVeon Smith's running, Darboh's one-handed catch, Butt's screen pass and Chesson's end around are great plays, but it still feels like we need to gel.  The defense is playing very well, but Maryland sort of sucks.  If we beat NW decidedly with a strong offensive performance, I think MSU will happen.    

I'd love to see DeVeon Smith-Ezekial Elliott be Biakabatuka-Eddie Geore 2.0.

BlueGoM

October 6th, 2015 at 9:54 AM ^

"The Michigan man-crush hero worship already in full effect over Harbaugh would reach screaming-teenage-girls-over-One-Direction levels."

Already there, man, already there.

 

Olaf

October 6th, 2015 at 9:54 AM ^

I want to see us beat NW and MSU before I even think about playoff possibilities. I still need to see improvement from our offense. Our inability to run the ball up the middle against Maryland concerns me.

LSAClassOf2000

October 6th, 2015 at 9:55 AM ^

This is only somewhat related perhaps, but I was actually doing the probability matrix for the rest of the season with Massey Ratings a little while ago and right now the estimates for various scenarios look like this - 

Running the table - 3.8892%

6-1, sole loss being OSU - 7.550%

6-1 sole loss being MSU - 3.737%

6-1, sole loss being NW - 2.593%

5-2, lose to both rivals - 7.254%

4-3, lose to NW and rivals - 4.836%

The primary reason the numbers look as they do, of course, is that there are 7 games left and therefore 128 possible combinations of wins and losses, but I am saying there is a chance.